Match Preview, Southampton v Arsenal: Anger Managed

Earlier this week, Andrew Mangan from Arseblog explored the less angry, if not muted, reaction to Arsenal’s defeat by Manchester United. It’s worth thinking about this collective psychological shift as Arsenal prepare to visit Southampton on Sunday.

Although I have disagreed with Andrew from time to time, in general I find him a thoughtful, measured, and articulate observer of the club. I would certainly trust his read on the mindset of Arsenal supporters online.

So when he notes that – apart from those outlets that traffic in outrage – the reaction to Saturday’s home loss was “less acute,” that seems like a reasonable statement about a changing mentality.

He goes on to speculate about the reasons for this change: A combination of Manchester City’s breakaway form, “weary resignation” or apathy over past perceived failures, fatigue with what some view as the same story unfolding, anticipation of the end of manager Arsène Wenger's era.

All could be true.

What I’ll say is that whatever the source, this represents a healthy turn. The vitriol of yore certainly didn’t do the Arsenal players any service – all the research on sports psychology indicates that a supportive environment is one of the elements grounding elite athletes’ success.

What’s more, I don’t think it’s particularly functional for those up in arms, either. We are talking about a sporting endeavor here, something that’s supposed to be at least entertaining and at most enjoyable. Individuals don’t survive very long hating what they should be enjoying.

In that light, for the love of Bergkamp, please try to find something to relish about the Gunners’ encounter with the Saints on Sunday.

We probably have the genius of Mesut Özil and the superhuman drive of Alexis Sanchez for a short amount of time, so take pleasure in what they do. We haven’t seen a striker like Alexandre Lacazette at Arsenal in a good while; watch his movement and guile. We’re blessed with one of the world’s top all-around midfielders – do yourself a favor and be amazed at the skill and stamina of Aaron Ramsey.

If you’re also, like myself, interested in the interactions of the complex organism that is a professional football side, take a few minutes during the match to focus on the interplay among Özil, Ramsey, and Granit Xhaka. The understanding of space, the timing, the skill, and the synchronization of movement by these three are a joy to behold.

It’s a human endeavor, though, which means it won’t be perfect and may not meet our expectations. Accepting that fact may, indeed should, reduce the emotional stakes. All the better.

Trends to Watch

Center half Shkodran Mustafi won’t play due to a thigh strain. Until the self-destruction against Manchester United, Mustafi was part of a defensive trio that had not lost a match.

Will the manager replace Mustafi with a member of the squad, Per Mertesacker, Rob Holding, Calum Chambers, or will he restructure the defense as a back four? He did that in the no-risk setting of Thursday’s Europa League contest with BATE Borisov. As a consequence, the flow through midfield was noticeable.

Such a setup would also be a way to reintroduce Jack Wilshere to the Premier League XI. Wilshere can’t do much more to prove he’s worthy of a league start than he’s done in his cup outings.

The guess here is that, away from home less than 72 hours after the previous match, Wenger sticks with three central defenders and goes with Mertesacker in the middle.

How the Match Plays Out

Southampton took the imperious Manchester City to the brink of a draw in midweek last week, so the going won’t be easy for Arsenal. Despite their less-than-prolific goalscoring record this season, Saints can feature Charlie Austin again up front. The former QPR man has troubled the Gunners in the past.

But midfield is the key to this one. Arsenal set the platform there to permit the attacking talent to thrive; this happens on Sunday, giving one of the Gunners’ relentless attackers enough support to find the Southampton net.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Mesut Özil. The German is in the top form of his Arsenal stay, just as his contract winds down. Watch and cherish his wizardry while you can.

Southampton. Oriol Romeu. Southampton’s noteworthy performances in recent years have come when the Spaniard has ruled the midfield. If he dominates that crucial area the way he can, Saints will have a foundation to trouble Arsenal.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Swansea City: What Matters

When I started writing about Arsenal five years ago, I thought I had something distinctive to say about the club. Having read and been inspired by several blogs for years, I believed I had identified a way to contribute something different to the discussion.

In particular, the business and management of the club, from its corporate strategy to its financial performance to its brand strategy to its management of its human capital, were aspects that I could shed some light on.

I’ve thought a lot and helped others think about such matters over the course of my career. Examining and synthesizing them for such an admirable enterprise as Arsenal Football Club seemed like a worthwhile undertaking.

Today, I’m not going to say that assessment was wrong – this is supposed to be a match preview, not a navel-gazey blog post. But too many of us are paying attention to the business and management of the club at the expense of the actual sporting endeavor.

This week provides an excellent example. Instead of relishing the emergence of Eddie Nketiah, the 18-year-old savior of Arsenal’s Carabao Cup run, the story turned to the conduct of the Annual General Meeting of Arsenal Shareholders. Which, capitalism being what it is, meant absolutely nothing.

What will mean something is the Gunners’ next Premier League match, against Swansea City at Emirates Stadium.

May I suggest, though, that this meaning has little to do with Arsenal’s prospects for the near term, as the team tries to establish consistent performance before some challenging November fixtures? Or with its ultimate position in the 2017-18 Premier League table? Or with the futures of star men Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Özil? Or with the collective desire of 14 professional athletes who would never have reached the pinnacle of their profession without desire?

Those will doubtless be storylines peddled by paid and amateur analysts during and after the match. And they will largely miss the point of sport.

To me, an observer who's ruminated on the bigger picture for some time, the point now is the enjoyment of sublime athleticism, the appreciation of genius, the surprise at the unexpected. The minute developments or actions that I have never seen before and will likely never see again.

If you view the story through that composite lens, you’ll avoid the jaded, hackneyed, “same old Arsenal” perspective that seems to drive some people near insanity.

You also might appreciate the speed and guile of the Gunners’ attackers against a Swansea defense set up to stymie them, the subtle orchestration of midfielders Granit Xhaka and Aaron Ramsey, the dynamism of wingbacks Sead Kolasinac and Hector Bellerin, and the timely aggressiveness and attention to transition of the team’s defenders and goalkeeper.

Trends to Watch

See above, in particular the timing of Ramsey’s runs to join the attack. Last weekend against Everton, the Welshman synchronized his moves almost perfectly with those of Özil, Alexis, and Alexandre Lacazette. Swansea may be more diligent opponents, but the interactions of Arsenal’s four attackers can be unstoppable.

How the Match Plays Out

This was not a straightforward affair last season, owing primarily to the unjustified dismissal of Xhaka. I expect him to avoid such a fate on Saturday and to dictate the play from the base of Arsenal’s midfield. Farther forward, the Swans may be more resolute than Everton was. Still, I don’t see them resisting the athleticism, skill, and synchronicity of Arsenal’s attack.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Mesut Özil. After his display at Everton, the German playmaker looks primed to dominate matches with his skill and vision. As Swansea set up to thwart him, he’ll need to move and think just as quickly.

Bournemouth. Lucasz Fabianski. The former Arsenal man between Swansea’s sticks has a worldy in him; he also has a clanger. He’ll be busy.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Bournemouth: Embrace the Uncertainty

Anyone who comes up with a definitive preview of Arsenal’s match against Bournemouth on Saturday lacks good sense or humility or both.

There’s just no way to predict how this encounter is going to unfold. Now, at a fundamental level, that’s true of any sporting contest, which is why we pay such rapt attention. Those unexpected moments of brilliance and joy carry most of the appeal.

If something can be even more unpredictable than normal—a question perhaps for the grammarians and philosophers out there—this Arsenal match would qualify.

First, Arsenal’s level of intensity is difficult to see ahead of time. The requirement on that front certainly wasn’t met in the last match against Liverpool, and despite exceeding the quality of Stoke and Leicester City, the Gunners haven’t exactly overwhelmed any opponents with a full match’s worth of effort.

Without suggesting the behavior and performance of previous teams have any bearing on this still-forming one, I will observe that manager Arsène Wenger has noted his teams often adopt caution after comprehensive defeats. Then again, the international break may have mitigated that tendency a bit.

Whatever Arsenal’s mental approach, the composition and playing style remain mysteries. We do know that Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will not be taking up a position in Arsenal’s starting XI. And it’s a pretty good bet that Wenger will pick Petr Cech, Laurent Koscielny, Alexis Sanchez, and Mesut Özil; their talent dictates their inclusion.

As for the other seven starters, you would think there’d be spots for Granit Xhaka, Aaron Ramsey, and Alexandre Lacazette, but you’d have tipped Lacazette for a start at Liverpool given he posed the greatest goal threat in the team’s first two matches. You’d have been wrong.

It’s also not 100 percent certain that Wenger will retain the structure of three central defenders. The manager has never expressed a firm commitment to that approach, and it hasn’t achieved its main purpose—defensive stability—in Arsenal’s first three league matches. Hosting Bournemouth might provide just the occasion to reintroduce the back four.

If such a return is in the offing, might we see stability provided by the inclusion of a more defensive midfielder, say, Francis Coquelin? The Frenchman could patrol the approaches to the central defense while Xhaka and Ramsey work the transitions. This might get the best out of all three.

Or it might not.

The point is, we don’t know what’s going to happen. As in our own lives, we can choose to fear that uncertainty, or we can embrace it. I know not what course others may take, but, as for me, give me serendipity.

Trends to Watch

Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud has scored 14 goals as a substitute; only three Premier League players have scored more. One of those, Jermain Defoe, now plies his trade for Bournemouth. Will one of these deliver the decisive blow on Saturday?

How the Match Plays Out

Arsenal start tentatively. Bournemouth mostly foil the Gunners early on and may enjoy a chance or two. Arsenal grow more confident and determined late in the first half, and their technical superiority and application eventually carry the day.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Alexandre Lacazette. The Frenchman seems to have a nose for goals, and his savvy in the area will trouble Bournemouth.

Bournemouth. Ryan Fraser. The Scottish winger caused Arsenal all sorts of problems in the frantic 3-3 draw at Dean Court last January. Whatever defensive framework the Gunners use, Fraser will create danger.

Match Preview, Southampton v Arsenal: Don't Believe the Hype

Occasionally, after particularly positive Arsenal results, I’ll break with pattern and review some immediate post-match analysis. I figure in so doing I can revel in the good feeling, which is one of the reasons I devote my time to following the club.

Such was my decision after the Gunners’ 2-0 win over Manchester United on Sunday. And I regretted it.

NBC Sports spent the first segment of its studio show talking about Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho. Nothing about who had performed well for Arsenal. Or about tactical adjustments that might have worked to Arsenal’s advantage. Nothing, even, about the Gunners’ ability to seize the moments that were presented them.

I then turned to The Guardian’s match report, hoping the hour or so of reflection had allowed its writer to reflect more substantively on the proceedings. Same story, essentially.

What’s this got to do with Arsenal’s match against Southampton on Wednesday?

It’s relevant because the obsession with the easy, popular narrative can make us miss some interesting developments. We’ll hear, for example, about the long odds of Arsenal’s qualification for the Champions League and about the club’s poor record at Southampton.

Both accurate observations, but not at all interesting.

Instead, we could be thinking about Danny Welbeck. He scored another winner against his former club on Sunday, and his attributes were part of Arsenal’s solution to an opponent’s blocking intentions. (Watch Adrian Clarke’s excellent Breakdown of some of the other moves, such as the deliberate movements of Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Özil.)

Will Welbeck’s fitness permit another start so soon?

Or can the midfield partnership of Granit Xhaka and Aaron Ramsey continue to flourish? Again, fitness will play an essential role in the answer, what with Xhaka’s ongoing lower-leg woes. If the Swiss can go, that can only boost the team’s efforts to establish some flow through the midfield.

In defense, there’s a doubt about the availability of linchpin Laurent Koscielny, according to manager Arsène Wenger. Given his impressive contributions on Sunday and the wily play of Southampton striker Manolo Gabbiadini, Arsenal will be hoping the on-pitch captain can play. Without him, can Shkodran Mustafi come straight back from his own injury into a new system, and who’s going to marshal the defense from the central position in the back three?

These are all much more compelling questions to me than the unanswerable ones about the manager’s future, the team’s Champions League prospects, transfer needs, and history on the South Coast.

They’re drawn from the actual stuff of professional football—two groups of 11 elite athletes competing and, if we’re lucky, providing some surprises with their determination, physical gifts, and intelligence.

Like those two moments on Sunday when Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Özil skipped over ham-fisted attempts by Wayne Rooney to tackle them.

Key Matchup

Manolo Gabbiadini against Arsenal’s central defenders. There’s been a noticeable improvement in Arsenal’s defense since the introduction of the 3-4-2-1 structure. Gabbiadini, despite being in woeful goalscoring form, creates a tricky challenge, with the likes of Nathan Redmond and Dusan Tadic supporting him.

Where to Worry

If Xhaka can’t play due to injury, Arsenal’s transitions will suffer. That’s especially concerning against Southampton because the Saints midfield is very skilled at disrupting the opposition’s flow. Would the response be a double pivot of Ramsey and Oxlade-Chamberlain?

Match Verdict

I have no idea what to expect. Both teams had successful outings at the weekend. Arsenal still have something to play for but an abysmal road record of late. Southampton have little obvious motivation and problems scoring goals, but they enjoy the home support. Let’s just accept the uncertainty and see what happens.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. The England man scored twice here in the FA Cup this year. He also delivered the coup de grace to his old team on Sunday. He can make his case to lead the line for the rest of the season and, perhaps, beyond.

Southampton. Oriol Romeu. Southampton’s defensive midfielder has put in some standout performances this season. He’s a formidable barrier to the Saints’ somewhat makeshift back line.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Southampton: Changes Coming

We can expect another change in complexion for Arsenal's EFL Cup quarterfinal match with Southampton on Wednesday.

Manager Arsène Wenger made seven alterations to his starting lineup between last Wednesday’s Champions League draw with Paris-Saint Germain and Sunday’s 3-1 league win over Bournemouth. The only holdovers were central defenders Laurent Koscielny and Shkodran Mustafi, playmaker Mesut Özil, and center forward Alexis Sanchez.

Selecting that quartet for two high-profile matches shows its importance to the current Arsenal team. In all likelihood, Koscielny, Mustafi, Özil, and Alexis will get a deserved rest against Southampton. They will have few opportunities for days off before the return fixture against Bournemouth on January 2.

In their places, Wenger will send out young players and squad stalwarts—Rob Holding and Gabriel in the center of defense, for example, and Alex Iwobi in the attacking midfield.

The center forward choice will be an interesting one. Recent league supersub Olivier Giroud would get the nod up front, but he tweaked his groin on Sunday and may need more time to recover. Lucas Perez will be in the squad after a month-injury absence; he might not be ready to start, though.

The other options would be Theo Walcott, replaced by Giroud after 75 minutes on Sunday, Iwobi as part of a fluid front four, or debutante Stephy Mavididi. None ideal. As a result, Wenger may have to fend off arguments from the indefatigable and insistent Alexis for another run-out.

We’ll also see Kieran Gibbs return to left back and Francis Coquelin to the center of midfield. Other candidates for starting roles include Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Jeff Reine-Adelaide, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Chris Willock.

All have earned playing time in Arsenal’s two wins in this competition. They’ll be backed by goalkeeper Emi Martinez.

This group will face its stiffest test in this competition so far. Not only are Southampton the first top-flight side to play Arsenal in this year’s cup, the Saints have posed serious challenges to the Gunners of late. Arsenal’s 2-1, stoppage-time, league win in September was just their second in seven outings against Southampton. That included a 2-1 loss in this competition two years ago.

Like Wenger, Southampton manager Claude Puel should adjust his starting XI from the one that defeated Everton 1-0 at the weekend. The Saints’ schedule is just as busy as the Gunners’, with a return to London against Crystal Palace and a crunch Europa League matchup with Hapoel Be’er Sheva in the next eight days.

There’s also precedent for Puel to rotate for this competition. He switched nine starters between Southampton’s league draw at Manchester City and the 1-0 home win over Sunderland in the last round.

Key Matchup

Alex Iwobi against Harrison Reed and Jordy Clasie. If Özil does get the break as anticipated, much of Arsenal’s creative burden will fall to Iwobi. He has not made much of an impact recently—as is normal for players who burst into the first team. Southampton are a difficult team to unlock, largely because their deep midfielders and defenders work so well together. Iwobi will need to find his daring and execution to create chances for his teammates.

Where to Worry

Shane Long annoys Arsenal every time he faces them. The Irish striker is tireless both in his running and in his niggly fouling. He’ll try to get under Gabriel’s skin and hope for a mistake from the relatively inexperienced defensive partnership of Arsenal.

Match Verdict

This one has the makings of a cagey and uneven affair. Because both teams will have relatively new makeups, synching the attacks might prove difficult. The heightened, if only mildly, pressure of a quarterfinal with Wembley on the distant horizon might also have a psychological effect on the players.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. His double propelled Arsenal to a 2-0 win over Reading in the last round. The incentive of facing his former club, plus his improved performances aside from his North London Derby cameo, could push him to make a telling impact here.

Southampton. Stuart Taylor. The ex-Arsenal man, now 36, may get his Southampton debut in goal in the absence of Alex McCarthy. He’ll need all that experience and good relationships with his back four to keep Arsenal’s youthful attack from bamboozling him.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Basel: Roll On

When Arsenal host FC Basel in the Champions League on Tuesday, the Gunners can establish a strong position in their Champions League group and continue their good form.

The Match Day One draw in Paris, on paper the most difficult of Arsenal’s group stage matches, gives the team a slight advantage in its qualifying campaign. Three home wins all but guarantee progress to the knockout phase.

A positive result would also extend the promising trend the Gunners have set since their opening-day league loss to Liverpool. They’re on a seven-match unbeaten run with a relatively attractive schedule until early November.

Basel will not be an easy target—the Swiss side has slain English giants in the past. They have also dominated the Swiss Super League, having won nine of nine matches while conceding just seven goals.

With respect, that competition will have not had the quality of Arsenal.

That’s the case even though we can expect manager Arsène Wenger to adjust his starting XI. Midfielder Francis Coquelin will miss out, having re-injured his right knee on Saturday. That means a start for Granit Xhaka against his former club.

Although Wenger did not rotate his side against Paris-Saint Germain, this looks like an opportunity to deploy some members of his strong squad. Based on their performances against Nottingham Forest in the League Cup, Kieran Gibbs, Mohamed Elneny, and Lucas Perez merit consideration.

Will Wenger go for this scale of change in a Champions League match? It would break from his usual practice, but four goals by the second string at Nottingham Forest point to a wealth of worthy attacking options.

The incoming quartet would bring a slightly different style of play from that of the vanquishers of Chelsea. A little less aggression and a little more flow in midfield, primarily. Lucas and Alexis Sanchez interchanging in attack could also cause problems for a Basel defense unaccustomed to their levels of speed and tenacity.

Of course, the XI Wenger sent out against Chelsea, with just Xhaka in for Coquelin, would be just as daunting a proposition for the visitors.

Key Matchup

Mesut Özil against Taulant Xhaka. Arsenal’s playmaker ran the show against Chelsea. His skills and smarts pose a constant menace to opposition defenders. Xhaka, facing his brother’s new team, will have to marshal his midfield teammates to minimize the space Özil can exploit.

Where to Worry

Arsenal’s biggest concern should be overconfidence. The Gunners look convincing but can’t take any match for granted. They’ll need to bring comparable intensity and swiftness of thought to this encounter, even if on paper the opposition is weaker. Because we’ve seen the consequences of not doing that in the past.

Match Verdict

I’m not entirely convinced by the momentum factor in football; I’ve never seen statistics to support the narrative of a team on a roll. So in this case, the focus, form, and quality Arsenal can showcase in 18 players will most likely be too much for Basel.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Granit Xhaka. Arsenal’s Swiss acquisition will have a chance to run this match from deep in the midfield. He launches attacks in a different way than Coquelin does—incisive passing vs. aggressive interception—and it will be interesting to watch Arsenal’s attack flow with Xhaka in charge.

Basel. Seydou Doumbia. Basel’s Ivorian striker, who has been rotated like Swiss clockwork with target man Marc Janko, will likely get the call with his teammate injured. Doumbia has six league goals in eight league appearances.

Match Preview, Manchester United v Arsenal: Day One of Ten That Define

Arsenal’s visit to Manchester United on Sunday commences a defining ten-day stretch.

Between February 28^th and March 8^th, the Gunners will play four matches. Their three Premier League encounters with Manchester United, Swansea, and Tottenham are separated by just three days each. Then, three days after the North London Derby, Arsenal travel to Hull for a replay of the FA Cup 5^th Round match, seeking to advance toward an historic third consecutive trophy in that competition.

The league matches—two at the grounds of other top-five sides--present a challenge that a title-winning team must rise to. As manager Arsène Wenger said, “It is the key period. We work the whole season for this period and that’s where you’re really tested, but it’s where you have an opportunity to show your quality as well. On that front, that is the most interesting period of the season.”

So far, Arsenal have fared well against direct rivals for the league crown, having won four, drawn one, and lost none against Leicester City, Tottenham, Manchester City, and Manchester United.

Four of those five matches were at home, however, including the 3-0 thrashing of Sunday’s opponents in early October. How instructive will we find that contest in our efforts to understand what might happen on Sunday?

In brief, Arsenal had the right tactical plan that day and the personnel to execute it; Manchester United did not. (See Arsenal’s Tactical Triumph for more detail.)

But the personnel will definitely change on Sunday, and the plans will probably shift, too. Both teams have suffered injuries to vital players. For Arsenal, the most telling loss has been that of Santi Cazorla, the architect of the October victory. His ability to dance out of the visitors’ midfield pressure in the first half opened the attacking space that Arsenal exploited.

In response to Cazorla’s absence, Manchester United manager Louis van Gaal may again decide to press Arsenal’s midfield. That’s a tactic most opponents have tried since Cazorla’s November knee injury, and Arsenal have often sputtered as a result. Van Gaal does have two players, Morgan Schneiderlin and Ander Herrera, who can harry the Arsenal midfield.

The problem is that pressing requires synchronization, persistence, conditioning, and a strong last line of defense. The Red Devils have not had a settled midfield since the turn of the year, raising questions about both their ability to coordinate the press and their capacity to stick to the physical and mental task. Furthermore, due to injuries across the back four, the United defense lacks stability.

Given those factors, van Gaal may opt for the risk-averse, possession game that has characterized much of his team’s play this season. With Michael Carrick and Juan Mata, United do have the players to implement this approach. How aggressively and effectively Arsenal disrupt the hosts’ efforts in this respect will influence the dynamics of the match.

Its outcome, though, will probably be decided up front. Manchester United lack a proven match-winner because Wayne Rooney is out with injury; Arsenal don’t have a player in any kind of goal-scoring form. Indeed, the Gunners have been held scoreless in five of their last eight matches. So both teams could stumble at the critical moment in front of goal.

If Arsenal can convert just one of the many chances it might get—as the league’s most creative team in terms of clear goal-scoring opportunities—that could do the trick. And at the outset of this critical sequence of matches, a positive result is all that matters.

Key Matchup

Aaron Ramsey against the Manchester United midfield. Restored to his preferred position in central midfield, Arsenal’s Welshman has performed creditably. Perhaps those performances haven’t met expectations, but were those expectations reasonable? As Tim Stillman observes in his Arseblog column “Sacrificial Ram,” Ramsey has been doing three jobs at once, supporting his deep-lying midfield partner, making up for the absence of a ball-control specialist on the right, and sparking Arsenal’s preference for attacking to the left.

Ramsey will face skillful and intelligent opponents in Scheiderlin and Herrera. The extent to which he can slip their attentions and initiate Arsenal’s attacks will shape Arsenal’s threat overall.

Where to Worry

Arsenal’s defensive focus flagged on just a few occasions against Barcelona on Tuesday evening. Two of those lapses proved fatal. The injury-riddled Manchester United don’t possess the proven attacking threats of Barcelona—no team does, in truth—but at this level, with these stakes, the slightest mental error can be a killer. Wenger and his team will need to turn all their attentions to the task at hand on Sunday.

Match Verdict

Most of the accomplished talent on display will be in the midfield, with Manchester United’s Schneiderlin, Herrera, and Juan Mata facing off against Ramsey, Mesut Özil, and Alexis Sanchez. Those two trios will be at the center of the action, but this one comes down to the two defenses. Arsenal’s, anchored by the impressive Petr Cech, has been more stable than Manchester United’s, who may have to cope without its standout keeper David de Gea.

Despite the Gunners’ recent goal-scoring struggles, their chances of getting an unmissable opportunity against Manchester United’s makeshift back line seem strong.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. The ex-Manchester United man has looked lively and dangerous since his return from injury. He’s shown he can rise to the occasion—both here in last season’s FA Cup quarterfinal and in his match-winning substitute appearance against Leicester City two weeks ago. If he’s physically ready, he merits a start, and that can’t be a tantalizing prospect for these opposition defenders.

Manchester United. Juan Mata. The Spaniard now pulls the strings for Manchester United, a role that suits him. He can also find dangerous spaces in the opponents’ penalty area, avoiding the attentions of defenders and midfielders. Arsenal’s Francis Coquelin will need to be especially diligent tracking Mata’s movements.

Match Preview, Stoke City v Arsenal: The Alexis Conundrum

Arsenal’s tests shift to England’s Northeast from its Northwest with Sunday’s visit to Stoke City. It’s a challenging fixture under any circumstances—Arsenal have just one win in seven Premier League matches there—and so soon after Wednesday’s grueling, frustrating draw at Liverpool, Stoke is a truly trying trip.

The good news is that the Gunners move on from disappointments much more quickly than their supporters do. We’ve seen recent evidence of this, when the 4-0 pasting at Southampton led not to a collapse as 2015 turned to 2016 but instead to three victories in short order.

And even if the legs remain weary, the prospect of Alexis Sanchez’s return is energizing. Although results have been solid in his absence (W7, D1, L1), Arsenal could certainly benefit from the Chilean’s infectious verve. A midwinter match at Stoke City seems like the perfect occasion.

In this occasion, as in all, perfection may elude us. Manager Arsène Wenger would be taking a major risk by immediately calling on Alexis. A re-aggravation of his hamstring injury, a problem related to compensating for his original injury, or consequences of Stoke’s infamously physical play could restrict last season’s star man from contributing substantially to Arsenal’s Premier League title challenge.

Wenger is well aware of the difficulty of this decision. He told his pre-match press conference:

Alexis, I would say has a 60:40 chance to be available and be back in the squad. He has two decisive days - Friday and Saturday. He is fit, he has worked very hard, and the decision we have to take is whether to take a gamble or not on his injury.

One of the manager’s clear considerations is the threat Alexis adds to Arsenal’s attack. Without him, opponents can focus on playmaker Mesut Özil, even man-marking the league’s top provider out of the game, as Southampton did. Alexis’s unpredictability, quickness, and determination will punish a team structured to stop anyone else.

Equally important is Alexis’s contribution to the Gunners’ efforts without the ball. He’s the key to Arsenal’s press in forward areas and forms an effective partnership with left back Nacho Monreal when opponents advance. Alexis can also help defend the middle of the pitch, where the midfielders Aaron Ramsey and Mathieu Flamini have shown they’d benefit from additional cover.

Despite the myriad ways in which Alexis strengthens this Arsenal team, the feeling here is that the manager will deploy him as a substitute. Wenger fancies a gamble, but perhaps not now with a prize asset he needs for as many of the remaining 16 league matches as possible.

Key Matchup

Joel Campbell against Erik Pieters. Arsenal’s once forsaken Costa Rican has risen to impressive form of late, creating danger with timely runs and clever passes from the right of Arsenal’s attack. He’ll need all his decisiveness and skill to outmaneuver Stoke’s well-drilled defensive unit and experienced and physical left back.

Where to Worry

Stoke have bombed Arsenal with crosses in the past, and the Gunners will need to limit that supply. But this season, the Potters have added speed and creativity to their weaponry, as their quick strikes against Manchester City showed. Keeping playmaker Bojan Krkic in check and marking the runs of Marko Arnautovic will be extremely important.

Match Verdict

It takes little perspicacity to see this match as a physical and mental gantlet. Even without the tricky Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke have enough in attack to hurt Arsenal. And the Potters still deploy a solid, physical, potentially frustrating defense. But this Arsenal team has a way of succeeding despite the obvious obstacles, and we think they’ll do so again.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. The front man took a beating against Liverpool, got patched up, and returned to score two exquisite goals. That increased his total to 18 in all competitions this season. If he can outwit (not difficult) and outmuscle (more difficult) head Orc Ryan Shawcross, Arsenal will succeed.

Stoke City. Ibrahim Affelay. Several Stoke players may grab the camera’s attention more than the Dutch midfielder does, but his deployment will dictate the match’s dynamic. If he works deeper in the midfield, he’ll be assigned to control Özil, meaning manager Mark Hughes is placing the priority on defending. If he takes a more advanced role, that will reveal Hughes’s attacking intent.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Dinamo Zagreb: 72-Hour Revenge Therapy

Tuesday’s Champions League clash with Dinamo Zagreb might be the ideal occasion for Arsenal. With an overwhelming display, the Gunners can ease the disappointment from their rotten performance and luck in Croatia and their unfortunate Premier League result on Saturday against West Bromwich Albion.

The payback will be all the sweeter against a known offender of performance-enhancing drug rules. Dinamo midfielder Arijan Ademi failed even UEFA’s superficial drug test after the home leg in September. UEFA has suspended Ademi for four years, a verdict that’s been appealed.

That development makes the timing perfect for Arsenal. Ademi’s absence will affect the muscularity--ahem--of the Dinamo midfield, and it will emphasize the points Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger has made recently about doping in football.

Wenger has embarked on a solo campaign on the issue, beginning with his fascinating interview with L’Equipe Sport & Style’s Erik Bielderman (translated for Arseblog here). Wenger told Beilderman:

In 30 years as a manager, I’ve never had my players injected to make them better. I never gave them any product that would help enhance their performance. I’m proud of that. I’ve played against many teams that weren’t in that frame of mind.

The European governing body doesn’t seem to have appreciated the manager’s forthrightness. According to Wenger, UEFA has stepped up its oversight all right—of Arsenal.

“What I do know is that I came out on that [issue], and as a result we had a doping control from UEFA on Friday!” Wenger revealed at his pre-match press conference on Monday. “We had 10 people on Friday to control us!”

And he returned UEFA’s fire, saying the rule permitting victories to stand despite positive doping results “means you basically accept doping.”

There’s no better way for Arsenal’s players to support their manager than by laying waste to Dinamo Zagreb.

Certainly, the gap in talent makes Arsenal capable of doing that. Mesut Özil and Alexis Sanchez, in particular, provide an offensive threat that the Croatian side rarely sees.

The complicating factors facing Arsenal aren’t novel. The Gunners will have to cope with an extensive injury list, which since Saturday includes midfield linchpin Francis Coquelin, and they’ll be facing an obdurate defense.

Dinamo Zagreb’s plan at home was to frustrate the Arsenal attack and take advantage of any mental lapses. It worked the charm, as lazy tracking by Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, inattentive defending of a corner, and Olivier Giroud’s red card doomed Arsenal to a 2-1 defeat. Manager Zoran Mamic will rely on an intensified version of this approach in London.

Mamic will be encouraged by Arsenal’s inability to break through West Brom’s deeply packed defense on Saturday. Arsenal had 73 percent possession but managed just three shots on target (of 11 shots total), according to FourFourTwo's StatsZone. And one of those, Giroud’s headed goal, came from a free kick.

The Gunners will need to move the ball more quickly and more imaginatively, ideally early in Tuesday’s match, to give Dinamo Zagreb what they have coming and to put recent flat performances behind them.

Regaining energy in this way may even be a more important objective than retaining hope of qualifying for the Champions League knockout stage. Arsenal need a victory against Dinamo and an Olympiacos loss at Bayern Munich to keep that possibility alive. If those two outcomes happen, Arsenal would need a two-goal win over Olympiacos in Athens in two weeks to reach the competition’s final 16.

In other words, in so many respects, this match calls for the maximum from Arsenal.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Alexis. Improbably, the Chilean devil rediscovered his verve against West Brom. If he can summon similar energy on Tuesday, Dinamo Zagreb won’t be able to handle him.
Dinamo Zagreb. Domajoc Antolic. The club captain returns from injury and must replace Ademi’s physical presence in midfield if Dinamo’s plan to frustrate Arsenal is to work.

Champions League Match Preview, Bayern Munich v Arsenal: Use Their Anger Against Them

Arsenal confront an apparently enraged Bayern Munich in Germany on Matchday Four of the UEFA Champions League.

The Gunners’ 2-0 win over the previously omnipotent side two weeks ago seems to have stirred up Pep Guardiola’s charges. Star striker Robert Lewandowski, who had two goal-bound shots saved by Arsenal’s Petr Cech at the Emirates, said, “We desperately need the points. We have to show who is the better team.”

Bayern’s motivation isn’t lost on Arsenal. According to Per Mertesacker, who likely enjoys some back-channel communications with several compatriots in the Bavarian side, “They will be angry I guess. We are the first team who really challenged them, so they will be on the ball and try to show that they are back and better than us.” (Arsenal.com)

There’s no question of Bayern’s quality. They’re the Bundesliga’s juggernaut and one of the two best teams in Europe. Guardiola has skillfully mixed the experience of players like Philipp Lahm and Xabi Alonso with the guile of Douglas Costa and Arjen Robben and the firepower of Thomas Müller and Lewandowki.

Arsenal witnessed the threat in Matchday Three, but the Gunners did not cower. Bayern’s skill in and dominance of possession failed to carry the day. That’s largely because Arsenal stayed disciplined in defense, forced Bayern to pass around the perimeter, and intervened only at the most opportune moments.

It’s likely to be the same approach at the Allianz Arena, perhaps with a slight variation. If Bayern let too much emotion affect their style and decisions, they’ll be vulnerable to a martial arts-style response from Arsenal. Frustrate them for another period of time, and they might be more prone to mistakes. Particularly on set pieces.

Arsenal also can’t allow changes in personnel to affect the proceedings too much. A different Gunner will have to summon the energy and intelligence of Aaron Ramsey on the right side of midfield. That’s especially important given the wide threat posed by Costa and Robben, who missed the London leg due to injury.

Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger may rejigger the midfield, bringing in Mathieu Flamini as part of a 4-3-3 formation, but a more likely choice will be to replace Ramsey with Joel Campbell. The Costa Rican had an excellent Premier League debut at Swansea on Saturday, scoring the team’s third goal and displaying a keen will for defending. He’ll have to match that performance—if not improve it—against Bayern.

As if facing Bayern’s wide men weren’t enough of a challenge, Campbell will have to manage the threat with a different right back. Due to Hector Bellerin’s groin injury, Mathieu Debuchy will get the start. The French international has the pedigree to compete in such a headline game; the question is his form. His performances so far this season, including in last week’s Capital One Cup loss at Sheffield Wednesday, have been rusty and unimpressive, to put it charitably. For Arsenal to stay in this contest, Debuchy will have to rise to a very big occasion.

At stake is the Gunners’ control over their own Champions League fate. Escaping Munich with a draw would mean Arsenal could qualify for the knockout phase with wins in their final two matches, regardless of the other results. A win would put them in even better position, level on points with Bayern and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.

Losing tonight, though, would hand the initiative to Olympiacos. If the Greek team beats Dinamo Zagreb in Athens this evening, a draw against Bayern in two weeks would secure passage to the knockout stage and destroy Arsenal’s chances of progressing.

There’s still a lot of football to be played and therefore a variety of possible outcomes in the competition. But those outcomes will look a lot more promising if Arsenal avoid losing this evening.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal: Olivier Giroud. Arsenal’s center forward changed the complexion of the match at the Emirates, winning the physical battles with Bayern’s central defenders and scoring the decisive goal. The Frenchman, who has six goals in his last six matches for club and country, has also scored at the Allianz Arena before. Another opportunistic goal would strengthen the Gunners immeasurably.
Bayern Munich: Arjen Robben. You can’t take your eyes off that pointy, bald head anyway, so you might as well watch the Dutchman. Although everyone knows his signature move, he’s so quick and wily he’s still difficult to stop. Debuchy and/or Nacho Monreal, and importantly, the assistance they get from Arsenal’s midfielders and forwards, will be sorely tested.

Champions League Match Preview, Dinamo Zagreb v Arsenal: Start Smart

Arsenal’s trip to Croatia to open the Champions League campaign will test the side’s intelligence.

Although Dinamo Zagreb’s talent shouldn’t be underestimated, Arsenal’s skill, speed, strength, and stamina have to be superior on paper. It’s the mental qualities, though, that so often determine success in European play. And the Gunners still have something to prove in that respect.

There were the two disastrous home performances against Anderlecht and Monaco in last year’s competition, when the necessary focus and savvy escaped Arsenal and expected victories didn’t materialize. This season’s home Premier League opener against West Ham turned on two mental errors; that was proof that Arsenal’s superior physical talents can still fail to carry the day.

Manager Arsène Wenger and his players have recognized the mental requirements, particularly in a six-game, round-robin tournament. Wenger said this week:

It is important we go to Zagreb highly focused and conscious of what is at stake there. You can be quickly out of the Champions League, and we want to start well….

Left back Nacho Monreal made similar points in his pre-match comments, saying,

You don’t play too many games, so if you make a mistake, you pay for it. You have to be really focused in each game, and the level is higher. The difference is small, but you have to be really focused.

Arsenal’s quest to reach and maintain that mental level will be important and interesting in several respects. First, this match is the first in a challenging run of four matches away from home and could influence the team’s performances against Chelsea on Saturday, against Tottenham next week in the Capital One Cup, and against Leceister on September 26.

It’s also happening four days after the team’s best outing of the season so far, the 2-0 win over Stoke City. How do the manager and the team capitalize on that performance using an adjusted lineup?

We know that Saturday’s starters Hector Bellerin and Aaron Ramsey haven’t made the trip to Zagreb, so Mathieu Debuchy and, presumably, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will have to blend their contributions into the team’s style and efforts.

Unlike some of their predecessors on the substitutes’ bench, Debuchy and Oxlade-Chamberlain are well positioned to profit from the opportunity. Both are full internationals with substantial experience and talents suited to European competition. Debuchy’s toughness, aerial ability, and reading of the game and Oxlade-Chamberlain’s strength and speed are distinctive advantages against wily European opponents.

Wenger noted the improved quality of his options in his pre-match press conference, observing: “It is quite easy to change two or three players, [more] than it was in years before because they are all at a very good level.”

They’ll need to play and think at that elite level because Dinamo Zagreb are no pushovers. The Croatian champions are on a 41-game unbeaten run in all competitions and have outscored their three most recent home opponents 13-1. That record underlines the attacking threat of Angelo Henriquez, Armin Hodzic, and Soudani. The trio has combined for 18 goals already in domestic and European competitions. (Stats from Opta via whoscored.com.)

The problem for Dinamo is that they haven’t yet faced a team that required them to sit deep and defend. And, even when circumstances have dictated a defensive approach, they haven’t been able to execute one. The striking example: After scoring three early goals in a Champions League qualifier at Molde, Dinamo conceded three goals and advanced only by virtue of away goals.

Arsenal showed against Stoke City what it can do to teams whose defenses are not finely calibrated and executed. With a physical effort on that level, combined with the proper focus and intelligence, the Gunners should generate a promising launch to their Champions League campaign and upcoming domestic schedule.

Match Preview, Arsenal v West Brom: Pre-Final Finale

Arsenal faces an odd scenario as it closes its Premier League campaign against West Bromwich Albion Sunday at Emirates Stadium.

It's comfortable but not totally secure in a third-place league finish, which would allow the Gunners to avoid a Champions League qualifier in August. Comfortable thanks to a three-point advantage over Manchester United; not totally secure because two bizarre results, say a 3-0 Arsenal loss and a 5-0 United win at Hull, would see United pip Arsenal for third on goal differential.

Then there's the matter of the FA Cup Final against Aston Villa six days later. Manager Arsène Wenger will likely decide Sunday's personnel to set the stage for a top performance from his first-choice team in the cup final. Given that many of those preferred players have looked less than energetic in Arsenal's last three matches, Wenger has to weigh giving them a rest against the risks of upsetting the team's chemistry and perpetuating the team's indifferent recent form.

After a run of eight consecutive wins between February and April, the Gunners have won only one of their last five matches. In the three of those matches, Arsenal failed to score at home against opposition organized to foil the Arsenal attack.

That's standard operating procedure for West Brom manager Tony Pulis, who has saved another team from relegation by instilling discipline in defense. It will therefore come as no surprise on Sunday when the Baggies allow the Gunners possession, force them into crowded central areas, hope for a moment of brilliance from leading man Saido Berahino, or try to catch the Gunners napping on a set play.

These principles have paid off in West Brom's recent matches. The Baggies are unbeaten in their last five, including wins over champions Chelsea on Monday and Manchester United at Old Trafford.

These results--and the manner West Brom have achieved them--will give Wenger, his staff, and his players plenty to contemplate. In particular, West Brom pose a significant aerial threat: 15 goals from headers is tied with West Ham for most in the league. Meanwhile, Arsenal have conceded the league's largest proportion of goals from headers (35 percent).

Given all these dynamics, Wenger's team selection will be interesting. He only introduced two new starters against Sunderland on Wednesday--left back Kieran Gibbs for Nacho Monreal and midfielder Jack Wilshere for Francis Coquelin--but those changes were not the ones most observers expected. Defender Laurent Koscielny, midfielder Santi Cazorla, and forwards Alexis Sanchez and Olivier Giroud all seemed likelier candidates for a game off.

Should we expect all four to get a break on Sunday? Wenger has suggested not. "Will I rest one or two players?" he asked in his pre-match press conference. "Certainly." But he didn't say he'll make wholesale changes to inject energy.

Now, Wenger probably wouldn't admit plans for major lineup turnover. The last time he made more than two outfield changes between league matches was between the early February loss at Tottenham and the home victory over Leicester three days later.

The selections against Leicester might, in fact, help us anticipate some changes for Sunday's match. Theo Walcott and Tomas Rosicky have a solid chance of repeating their starting appearances. Both came on as substitutes against Sunderland on Wednesday, when they introduced quickness and drive to the Arsenal attack. Expect them to do something similar from the outset against West Brom.

We might also see Gabriel replace one of the two center halves. The Brazilian's aggressiveness in the air and alertness to counterattacks would help offset West Brom's two major threats. The aerial threat might also encourage Wenger to prefer the more imposing Calum Chambers to Hector Bellerin at right back.

Also of interest is the choice in goal. In last season's final match against Norwich City, Lukasz Fabianski got the nod in preparation for his start in the FA Cup Final. Will similar thinking give Wojciech Szczesny the start on Sunday?

Whatever the selection, energy and tempo should be the priorities. Arsenal have the talent to end the campaign successfully; the questions are about imagination, vigor, and will. West Brom will present a test of all three.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Sunderland: Points All Around

Arsenal returns to action against Sunderland on Wednesday, with both teams needing one point to secure their immediate objectives. For Arsenal, a draw would be enough to guarantee a third-place league finish and a straight path into next year's Champions League group stage; Sunderland can make sure it stays in the Premier League for the 2015-16 season by not losing at the Emirates.

For that reason, Black Cats manager Dick Advocaat is likely to place the priority on defense. This approach has produced clean sheets against Leicester City and Everton in Sunderland's last two matches.

The performance against Everton at Goodison Park will serve as Advocaat's blueprint. Sunderland relinquished possession to Everton, contenting itself with 30 percent, and completed just 146 passes to Everton's 511 (Stats from OptaSports via whoscored.com). The Black Cats camped in their own half and profited from two fortunate second-half goals from Danny Graham and Jermaine Defoe.

Sunderland will be encouraged by this success--and the manner of it--as they face Arsenal on Wednesday. That's only nine days after Swansea used a determined defense and opportunistic offense to hold the Gunners scoreless in a 1-0 win in London. And it's only three days after Arsenal failed to register a first-half shot against Manchester United, another sign that its offense is not humming.

Getting his attacking players to rediscover some of their verve will be a priority for Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger. Not only will he want a strong finish to the league campaign to set the tone for next season's preparations; he'll know from his five previous FA Cup triumphs how difficult it is for a team to regain its energy and goal-scoring form for final crucible. Arsenal can also send Aston Villa, its final opponent, a strong message about the risks of a deep defensive approach.

For those reasons, we shouldn't expect Arsenal to play for a gentlemanly draw. The Gunners can prove both a specific point--that they're ready to defend their FA Cup title--and a general one--that they're capable of breaking through a determined defense.

Which players will Wenger select to make these points?

The thinking here is that he'll change the lineup a bit. After sending out the identical starting XI for six straight league matches, after witnessing that group's collective effectiveness wane in its last two outings, and after seeing fatigue hamper some of the individuals just three days before, the manager will likely employ some different starters on Wednesday.

Midfielder Jack Wilshere is a prime candidate. The Englishman helped assert Arsenal's control over the midfield when he entered the game against Manchester United. This followed energetic substitute performances against Swansea and Hull. He could replace Santi Cazorla in the heart of the midfield or take one of the interchanging roles in attacking midfield.

If Wenger suspects Sunderland won't attack at all, he could use Aaron Ramsey and Wilshere in the heart of midfield, as he did late against Swansea and Manchester United. He'd thus open a forward spot for Theo Walcott or Danny Welbeck, if the latter is fit. This would be a bold move for a side needing only a draw to nail down a third-place league finish.

More likely, Wenger will keep Francis Coquelin at the base of the midfield and use substitutes to change the dynamic if Sunderland's approach keeps Arsenal in check.

There's depth elsewhere that could be brought to bear, such as Gabriel, who will replace the ill Laurent Koscielny at center back. Kieran Gibbs at left back and Tomas Rosicky in any number of positions could also see action, but one lesson of the FA Cup semifinal against Reading is that significant changes risk stalling the offense as much as lineup uniformity does. That's why we expect no more than three changes on Wednesday.

With this scope of rotation, Arsenal should be in position to continue its dominance of the Premier League's bottom 10 teams. In 18 matches against the current bottom half, the Gunners have won 16 and drawn two.

Match Preview, Manchester United v Arsenal: Minimal Mystery

Arsenal's visit to Old Trafford won't carry the drama that seemed likely when the fixture list was released. Originally the penultimate match of the league campaign, the contest could have decided the two sides' Champions League fates or one of their title aspirations.

Neither remains in the balance. Arsenal have already amassed enough points to secure a top-four league finish, while United would have to give up a plus-14 advantage in goal differential to lose its own Champions League spot. Meanwhile, Chelsea have won the title.

The two teams won't hold any major surprises for each other, either. They met two months ago in the FA Cup quarterfinal, a 2-1 Arsenal victory that signaled further improvement against top competition away from home.

Still, no Arsenal-Manchester United contest is devoid of drama, and this one will be interesting on several levels.

For one thing, the implications for the final league table remain important. Arsenal need a win to maintain any hope of finishing second, which was a realistic--and stated--objective prior to Monday's loss to Swansea. A victory would also guarantee the Gunners third place and a pass on next season's Champions League qualifying round.

A United victory keeps open the possibility of a third-place finish for Louis Van Gaal's team, while a draw would give Van Gaal the points for a fourth-place finish and Arsenal almost all it needs for third. It'd be out of character for both Van Gaal and Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger to play for that result, so their approaches will be interesting in light of their objectives for the season.

Second, this is the final opportunity for Arsenal to consolidate its away performances against top opposition. The victory at Manchester City, the FA Cup win at Old Trafford, and to some degree the loss at Chelsea have shown that Arsenal are no longer naive travelers.

Although Arsenal played energetically in all three matches, the manager and the team did not take a uniform approach. They placed priority on solid defending in their own half against City and Chelsea, while they pressed United's midfielders and defenders assertively.

Lacking Michael Carrick's ball retention and passing efficiency due to his injury, is United vulnerable to a similar pressing approach on Sunday? Or will Wenger see West Bromich Albion's and Chelsea's recent rear-guard victories over United and his side's result at Manchester City as suggesting a more defensive stature? Will Wayne Rooney's exclusion bear on the Arsenal manager's thinking at all?

All those questions lead to a third interesting point. Based on Wenger's priorities for this match and his judgment of how to realize those, which players does he select? The team looked less than energetic against Swansea, particularly in the first half, and there may be a temptation to bring some variety to the lineup. After all, it was the fifth consecutive appearance for the identical starting eleven, an unprecedented run in Wenger's tenure.

Midfielders Jack Wilshere and Tomas Rosicky are the most likely candidates to join the starters. They'd each add verve to the Arsenal attack, though Wenger will weigh their energy going forward with defensive necessities. In particular, Arsenal's right-sided attacker will have to assist right back Hector Bellerin in marshaling United's Ashley Young, a primary agent of Van Gaal's directive to send crosses into the opposition's penalty area.

A healthy Danny Welbeck or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain might have expected to join the Arsenal XI because they'd bring speed in attack and defensive tenacity, but neither is ready to return to the scene of his outstanding FA Cup performance.

Even without Welbeck's desire to show his old employers again what they've forsaken, and even without the high stakes these encounters have carried in the past, Arsenal-Manchester United will always have its intrigues. It's each club's most prominent fixture as the season draws to a close, so the result could shape the storylines and tone for several months. Worth the attention.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Liverpool: Not Decisive But Telling

We've had almost two weeks to get ready for Saturday's contest at Emirates Stadium between third-place Arsenal and fifth-place Liverpool. You'd think with all that time and the tedium of the interlull that a wealth of interesting, intelligent analysis would have emerged. 

Turns out not to be the case. The best almost anyone can muster is "This is the Top-Four Decider."

Actually, even that's off base.

After this weekend, there will be seven matches left on Arsenal's and Liverpool's schedules. That's 14 opportunities for something unpredictable. Add Man United, Spurs, Southampton, and even Man City to the mix, and the possibilities multiply.

Yet the probabilities suggest that Arsenal are already in a strong position to qualify for the Champions League, possibly the strongest they've been in a number of seasons. Most respectable models are pointing to a 95 percent or better probability of a top-four finish, which a victory on Saturday would enhance. Arsenal's form is also the envy of the Premier League: 33 points from the last 39 and eight consecutive wins at home.

Liverpool, early 2015 darlings of the media and the league's form team, have dipped. They looked pedestrian in their last outing against Manchester United and languid in their fortunate 1-0 win at Swansea.

As "How Arsenal Can Attack Liverpool's 3-4-3" points out, those matches offer Arsenal some guidance for exploiting Liverpool's weak spots. Pressure on the three central defenders, shorn of the suspended linchpin Martin Skrtel, and emphasis on the space left by too aggressive wingback play would be advantageous moves for Arsenal.

Arsenal will also take pointers from its successful trip to Old Trafford in the FA Cup, when rather than standing off Manchester United as they did in visits to other top opponents this season, the Gunners pressed through the midfield and forward line. This caused Manchester United's three central defenders and wingbacks considerable difficulty, and Danny Welbeck's winner was a result.

Welbeck seems like the ideal player on the right side to execute the preferred pressing tactic, but his knee injury on England duty creates an obvious lineup question. In truth, there's a question even without his tweaked knee. Will it be Welbeck or Aaron Ramsey in the starting XI? You have to think the other midfield and forward positions are spoken for by Santi Cazorla, Mesut Özil, Alexis, and Olivier Giroud. With Francis Coquelin in the holding midfield role, that leaves one spot for either Welbeck or Ramsey.

Manager Arsène Wenger's decision will likely come down to Welbeck's fitness and his assessment of Liverpool's soft spot. If midfield pressure and energy seem more troubling to Liverpool, then the manager will go with Ramsey; if the weakness is defensive and on the flanks, Welbeck will probably be preferred. He'll also consider Arsenal's right back candidates from the returning Mathieu Debuchy, Hector Bellerin, and Calum Chambers and how best to support that choice defensively.

This is the kind of selection decision the manager will face as the season moves toward its close. All the club's senior players have been in training in recent days, giving Wenger the rare luxury of personnel options. With no midweek fixtures to drive squad rotation, the manager can choose his league and FA Cup lineups based on form, chemistry, and the opposition. That's another strength that Arsenal can call upon, one that could be telling between now and late May.