Match Preview, Arsenal v Bayern Munich: I Know You Rider

The sun will shine on my back door someday,
March wind will blow all my troubles away.

The American blues song “I Know You Rider” says a lot about Arsenal Football Club in advance of Tuesday’s Champions League match with Bayern Munich.

The number, performed by such groups as the Grateful Dead and Hot Tuna, deftly moves from despair to optimism.

In its opening verse, the storyteller predicts that the listener “gonna miss me when I’m gone.” It’s hard not to attribute that sentiment to the embattled Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger. As has been analyzed on this site and elsewhere, the Frenchman is such an integral part of the club’s culture and structure that his absence will force a transformation.

The song’s verses unfold differently depending on the artist and the performance. By the time they close, they express a hopeful sentiment. That the cares, blues, troubles will, come some March, disappear.

We struggle to see that outcome for Arsenal now amidst the gloom of four defeats in six matches and the uncertainty clouding the futures of Wenger and his two stars Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Özil.

But the hope has to be there somewhere. Whether it lies in the club’s longer trajectory or in expectation of one match, the sane among us all possess some kind of hope. Otherwise, we would stop caring; we’d stop paying attention; we’d find other pastimes.

Masochism or even quest for validation—among those who are looking to prove they’re smarter and/or more committed than others—are sustainable for only so long.

And so to the matter of Bayern. In the binary operation of knockout competition, this is a meaningless encounter. The German giants destroyed the Gunners, 5-1, three weeks ago, and barring some supernatural intervention, Arsenal are not going to better that result and advance to the Champions League quarterfinal.

The way things look—Bayern having put eight goals past Hamburg at the weekend, Arsenal continuing to look rudderless in a 3-1 loss at Liverpool—a result similar to the first leg’s doesn’t seem far-fetched.

Yet we’ll pay attention.

Perhaps hints of something different will emerge. A revised tactical approach. Opportunities for different players. Focus. Professional pride.

Any of those changes to the dynamic will be interesting. They might also set the team up for better days ahead.

Like a trip to Wembley for an FA Cup semifinal. Saturday’s quarterfinal visit of non-league Lincoln City provides a legitimate chance at that outcome.

Or Premier League matches to come with Tottenham, Manchester City, and Manchester United. Make the most of all those occasions, and the Gunners tell a different, less tragic, story of the 2016-17 season.

Because all those conclusions remain possible, we press on.

Key Matchup

Arsenal’s players against their recent performances. The direction is negative; few would dispute that. Arresting that slide against one of the three or four most powerful teams in the world is a daunting task. But these are highly paid professionals who got where they are through talent and persistent motivation. Summoning those qualities against this opposition could be effective therapy.

Where to Worry

Could another absolute hiding make things worse? I don’t know.

Match Verdict

Even if manager Carlo Ancelotti changes his lineup, Bayern will dominate the ball. And win the tie. The major unknown is whether Arsenal will discover any answers to their recent troubles.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Aaron Ramsey. Can the Welshman get back into form quickly and help the Arsenal midfield function better? It’s a lot to ask, especially against this opposition. But the rest of Arsenal’s season might depend on it.

Bayern Munich. Franck Ribéry. Because if you have to watch one Bayern player, you might as well content yourself in the knowledge that Arsenal don’t employ someone this unattractive.

FC Basel 1, Arsenal 4: Three Things We Learned

Lucas Perez’s hat trick decided Arsenal’s 4-1 win over FC Basel in the Champions League and, in an unlikely outcome, clinched the top spot in Group A for the Gunners.

Unlikely because Paris Saint-Germain, heavy favorites at home, could only draw with Ludogorets Razgrad. As a result, Arsenal’s won the group for the first time in five years.

The Gunners blitzed Basel at the beginning of each half and warded off most of the hosts’ pressure to secure the victory.

Here are three things we learned from the match.

Arsène Wenger still goes for it

The talk leading up to the encounter focused on whether the Arsenal manager should and would give his important players a rest. After all, PSG was almost certain to secure the group’s top seed at home, and the Gunners face a challenging Premier League calendar.

If you needed reminding of Wenger’s unpredictability and his respect for the Champions League, his team selection should give you all you require. Yes, he made six changes from the lineup that dispatched West Ham on Saturday; those six, though, did not include Mesut Özil and Alexis Sanchez. Arsenal’s two stars played long enough to secure the result, then left for substitutes.

Elsewhere, the manager picked an aggressive starting XI, fielding Aaron Ramsey in midfield beside Granit Xhaka and Lucas with Alex Iwobi, Özil, and Alexis farther forward. The priority was clearly on the attack, a focus that proved smart as Arsenal’s speed on the break overwhelmed Basel.

This risk-taking did mean that, early 2-0 lead in hand, this was not the team to lock it down. But the group, particularly central defenders Laurent Koscielny and Rob Holding, did enough to keep Basel from getting too close.

Lucas Perez gets to the right place at the right time

The two goals Lucas scored in early the first half displayed his opportunistic streak. He recognized the threat that left back Kieran Gibbs was posing on Basel’s right, and he got himself into can’t-miss positions in front of goal.

For his first, Lucas sneaked in as Alexis released Gibbs to the byline with a delicate chip in the eighth minute. Gibbs drew the Basel keeper Tomas Vaclik’s attention then slotted the pass to Lucas. The Spaniard waited a split-second, Alexis style, for the last Basel defender to commit, then eased the ball into the net.

Eight minutes later, Lucas scored a poacher’s goal, jumping on the rebound of Gibbs’s stinging shot to sweep home.

He had more work to do to finish off the second Arsenal hat-trick in as many matches. Again, Gibbs was instrumental. His intervention and strong pass upfield was deadened by Alexis into Lucas’s path. Lucas swung his weaker right foot, didn’t make clean contact, but had the angle perfect to beat Vaclik.

That’s five goals in just nine Arsenal appearances for the late summer arrival from Deportivo La Coruna. An excellent return.

Gibbs and Iwobi jelled well

Arsenal enjoyed a smooth combination on its left. Unlike in the last match against PSG, Gibbs and Iwobi synchronized their movements and reached dangerous positions.

Gibbs played much of the match practically as a winger, getting forward at every opportunity. Of his 62 completed passes, Gibbs directed the plurality (26) forward and connected on 13 of 14 passes in the final third. (Statistics from FourFourTwo StatsZone)

Gibbs could influence the match in this fashion because Iwobi frequently moved in from the flank to overload the midfield. Running from that central position onto Özil’s cutback, Iwobi scored Arsenal’s fourth goal of the night.

Meanwhile, Basel couldn’t exploit the resulting gaps on Arsenal’s left. Center forward Marc Janko wasn’t mobile enough to run into that channel, and right back Michael Lang, though 15 of 15 on passes in the attacking third, could not produce the decisive quality.

Extra time

Until the point in the 78^th minute when Rob Holding surrendered possession, leading to Basel’s goal, his partnership with Laurent Koscielny at the heart of Arsenal’s defense performed impeccably.

Koscielny succeeded on seven of seven attempted clearances, while Holding was five for five. Koscielny also made a game-high four interceptions, while Holding completed 93 percent of his passes. All added up to solid contributions from a novel partnership.

A brief word about Granit Xhaka, too, upon his return to his original club: The Swiss international pushed Arsenal forward from midfield, completing 41 of his game-high 104 passes forward. He was also alert defensively, intercepting four Basel passes, making 14 ball recoveries, and succeeding on three of five attempted tackles. No player was more effective on those measures.

Match Preview, Ludogorets v Arsenal: Not So Fast

Arsenal travel to Bulgaria to face Ludogorets Razgrad on Tuesday, with the opportunity of setting the pace in Champions League Group A.

The Gunners are level on points with Paris Saint-Germain and have a superior goal difference, so the target of winning the group is within reach with three matches to go.

The team shouldn’t grab for that objective prematurely, though. Any dip in performance or focus could be costly here.

Ludogorets posed dangers two weeks ago when they visited the Emirates. Yes, Arsenal ran out 6-0 winners, but there were moments in the first half when Arsenal goalkeeper David Ospina had to intervene and prevent the Bulgarian side from seizing the initiative.

Indeed, Ludogorets did not follow the pattern most visitors use in North London: Rather than defending deep, they opened the game and sought to capitalize on Arsenal’s aggressiveness. They were particularly adept in transition, moving quickly from the wings to playmaker Marcelinho.

This success should make Arsenal wary. All the more so because first choice right back Hector Bellerin did not make the trip to Sofia. In his place, we’ll see either Carl Jenkinson, with only one Arsenal start since May 2014, or regular center half Shkodran Mustafi.

The center of Arsenal’s midfield will also look different. Santi Cazorla remains injured, and Francis Coquelin may get a rest before Sunday’s North London Derby.

The challenge for manager Arsène Wenger is choosing among the qualities and strengths of four deserving central midfield choices. Granit Xhaka, out of action since his red card against Swansea, Coquelin, Mohammed Elneny, and Aaron Ramsey all have strong starting cases.

Our best guess is that Xhaka partners Elneny. It would be only the second start for the pair. Xhaka-neny’s previous performance came in Arsenal’s 4-0 EFL Cup win at Nottingham Forest, so in theory the two can combine effectively.

Whomever the manager picks, Arsenal’s midfielders need to attend to the home side’s threat. Ludogorets led PSG at home and drew with Basel in the Champions League. In domestic competition, they’ve scored 15 goals in their last four games, so they don’t lack firepower.

Where the hosts may struggle is in defense. Arsenal possess the speed of thought, movement, and passing to punish most teams. It’s unlikely that Ludogorets have the organization and defensive quality to keep the likes of Mesut Özil and Alexis Sanchez quiet.

Key Matchup

Arsenal’s fullbacks against Ludogorets’s wide attacking players. Ludogorets will look for opportunities to isolate Gibbs and Jenkinson/Mustafi. Wanderson, Misidjan, and Cafú all flashed threats in the first meeting. If Gibbs keeps up his fine form and his counterpart on the right holds firm, Arsenal can limit Ludogorets’s effectiveness going forward.

Where to Worry

Too many changes in Arsenal’s starting XI, some enforced by injury and others by choice, could create uncertainty the hosts could exploit. Of particular concern would be the defensive support Arsenal’s right back receives from the midfielder and wide attacker. Jenkinson or Mustafi will need help to slot in effectively.

Match Verdict

A wide-open affair. Ludogorets will likely maintain its European record of scoring in all its home matches, but Arsenal will field enough offensive talent to overcome the hosts.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Alexis. Arsenal’s dynamo is humming at the moment. Two goals against Sunderland on Saturday punctuated his all-action performance. His is the kind of talent and energy that Ludogorets will struggle to contain.

Ludogorets. Marcelinho. The Brazilian pulled the strings for the Bulgarian side two weeks ago, completing 89 of 99 passes, both game highs. He also created three chances for teammates.

The Second Coming of Francis Coquelin

Francis Coquelin’s reappearance in Arsenal’s midfield in Wednesday’s 6-0 Champions League victory over Ludogorets may have signaled the start of a very long reign.

If not messianic – because the team did not need saving – Coquelin’s performance came close to perfection.

In his first start since injuring his knee against Chelsea on September 24, the Frenchman regained his high level in defensive interventions. He made 13 ball recoveries, intercepted seven opposition passes, and succeeded on eight of 11 tackles. All those were game highs, according to FourFourTwo Stats Zone.

The catalyst and distributor

We’ve come to expect such defensive influence from Coquelin since his near-miraculous emergence in January 2015. Perhaps more surprising was his passing acumen. Against Ludogorets, Coquelin led all Arsenal players with 51 completed passes, on 55 attempts. No Arsenal starter had better passing efficiency.

Coquelin always seemed to choose the correct option, even the not-so-obvious ones. Two passes in the second half stood out. He intervened brilliantly and returned Kieran Gibbs’ cleared cross to the left back, keeping alive the possession that led to Arsenal’s third goal. That’s at the 4:10 mark of this video.

The second (at 5:24) shows his vision and execution. Coquelin spots Mesut Özil open on the left and finds the German with a perfect cross-field pass.

Combine those two contributions, winning the ball and distributing it effectively, and you have the perfect midfielder for Arsenal’s current setup.

That’s not to detract from the quality and performances of Coquelin’s midfield teammates. On the contrary. I’d argue that the quintet of Coquelin, Santi Cazorla, Granit Xhaka, Mohamed Elneny, and Aaron Ramsey are, as a group, the best midfield in club football. No other team boasts a five-deep central midfield of that ability.

The contingent gives manager Arsène Wenger a range of options, as Tim Stillman explored in his Arseblog column this week.

What Coquelin provides is a foundation both solid and vibrant for Arsenal’s attacking talent to thrive. His instinct upon winning the ball appears to be to get it forward.

With equanimity: Despite completing the team’s most passes against Ludogorets, he didn’t figure in any of the team’s top five passing combinations. He found Özil eight times; Gibbs seven; Cazorla and Shkodran Mustafi five; Theo Walcott, Alexis Sanchez, Laurent Koscielny, Hector Bellerin, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain four.

One of many cogs in the tactical wheel

Many of these interactions begin with Coquelin higher up the pitch than a typical holding midfielder would be. He’s serving as a midfield marauder, with Cazorla as a deep-lying playmaker behind him.

This is an interesting shift from Wenger because it makes the midfield more proactive and interchangeable, given the personnel. Ramsey, Elneny, and Xhaka can all perform the role of Coquelin, though, as Stillman observes, with slightly different styles.

Meanwhile, Elneny and Xhaka can slot in for Cazorla as the deep playmaker. Yes, the aesthetic would be subtly different, but none of those shifts would alter the overall approach the manager seems to be taking.

The direction is to press opponents early in matches. Alexis often initiates the pressure on the ball, with Özil and Walcott closing down the first passing options. That’s when Arsenal surrender possession in relatively open areas of their attacking half.

When transitions happen in a more crowded attacking setting, often it’s Coquelin who steps up, prevents the opposition from escaping, intercepts the pass, and quickly finds a teammate in a threatening position. Such a contribution led to a stinging shot from Theo Walcott on Wednesday evening.

Then, when the pressing has resulted in a lead for Arsenal, the team can solidify its defensive shape and try to hurt opponents on the counterattack. Coquelin is an ideal linchpin for this approach as well.

The bone of contention

Still, Coquelin, like every central midfielder since Patrick Vieira, provokes debate among Arsenal fans. When Wednesday’s team sheet came out, for example, Twitter erupted with consternation that Coquelin, and not Xhaka, got the starting nod.

Maybe this is because Coquelin did not carry a huge price tag. Perhaps he doesn’t exude the silky skill some expect of an Arsenal midfielder. Or folks have forgotten how he and Cazorla combined to such successful effect in 2015. Or they don’t like the apparent improvisation that created that partnership. Others might not recognize how much he’s improved from that excellent year, even.

What’s clear, though, is that Wenger holds none of these opinions. The manager is a first-hand witness to Coquelin’s abilities and attitude, both of which he deems important to this version of Arsenal.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Basel: Roll On

When Arsenal host FC Basel in the Champions League on Tuesday, the Gunners can establish a strong position in their Champions League group and continue their good form.

The Match Day One draw in Paris, on paper the most difficult of Arsenal’s group stage matches, gives the team a slight advantage in its qualifying campaign. Three home wins all but guarantee progress to the knockout phase.

A positive result would also extend the promising trend the Gunners have set since their opening-day league loss to Liverpool. They’re on a seven-match unbeaten run with a relatively attractive schedule until early November.

Basel will not be an easy target—the Swiss side has slain English giants in the past. They have also dominated the Swiss Super League, having won nine of nine matches while conceding just seven goals.

With respect, that competition will have not had the quality of Arsenal.

That’s the case even though we can expect manager Arsène Wenger to adjust his starting XI. Midfielder Francis Coquelin will miss out, having re-injured his right knee on Saturday. That means a start for Granit Xhaka against his former club.

Although Wenger did not rotate his side against Paris-Saint Germain, this looks like an opportunity to deploy some members of his strong squad. Based on their performances against Nottingham Forest in the League Cup, Kieran Gibbs, Mohamed Elneny, and Lucas Perez merit consideration.

Will Wenger go for this scale of change in a Champions League match? It would break from his usual practice, but four goals by the second string at Nottingham Forest point to a wealth of worthy attacking options.

The incoming quartet would bring a slightly different style of play from that of the vanquishers of Chelsea. A little less aggression and a little more flow in midfield, primarily. Lucas and Alexis Sanchez interchanging in attack could also cause problems for a Basel defense unaccustomed to their levels of speed and tenacity.

Of course, the XI Wenger sent out against Chelsea, with just Xhaka in for Coquelin, would be just as daunting a proposition for the visitors.

Key Matchup

Mesut Özil against Taulant Xhaka. Arsenal’s playmaker ran the show against Chelsea. His skills and smarts pose a constant menace to opposition defenders. Xhaka, facing his brother’s new team, will have to marshal his midfield teammates to minimize the space Özil can exploit.

Where to Worry

Arsenal’s biggest concern should be overconfidence. The Gunners look convincing but can’t take any match for granted. They’ll need to bring comparable intensity and swiftness of thought to this encounter, even if on paper the opposition is weaker. Because we’ve seen the consequences of not doing that in the past.

Match Verdict

I’m not entirely convinced by the momentum factor in football; I’ve never seen statistics to support the narrative of a team on a roll. So in this case, the focus, form, and quality Arsenal can showcase in 18 players will most likely be too much for Basel.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Granit Xhaka. Arsenal’s Swiss acquisition will have a chance to run this match from deep in the midfield. He launches attacks in a different way than Coquelin does—incisive passing vs. aggressive interception—and it will be interesting to watch Arsenal’s attack flow with Xhaka in charge.

Basel. Seydou Doumbia. Basel’s Ivorian striker, who has been rotated like Swiss clockwork with target man Marc Janko, will likely get the call with his teammate injured. Doumbia has six league goals in eight league appearances.

Match Preview, PSG v Arsenal: The Setup

Arsenal’s initial match of the Champions League campaign in Paris on Tuesday carries both peril and potential.

On paper, it’s the toughest of the Gunners’ group stage encounters. The runaway Ligue 1 champions are the top seed and recent four-time quarterfinalists in this competition. Arsenal also have a habit of starting the Champions League slowly, if not stupidly, losing the last two openers.

You wouldn’t fancy a reversal of that trend against one of Europe’s free-spending clubs. But other factors may weigh in Arsenal’s favor this time.

The biggest advantage is disarray at PSG. The club cashiered Laurent Blanc at the end of last season and hired Unai Emery from Seville, where he won an unprecedented three consecutive Europa League titles. The two managers’ philosophies differ, and a roster largely of Blanc’s making hasn’t easily adapted.

The Parisians also lost their most potent offensive threat, striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Without their Swedish talisman, PSG have so far lacked a player capable of rescuing them from pedestrian displays. They’ve labored in three of four Ligue 1 matches, including Friday’s home draw with Saint-Etienne.

Part of those struggles can be attributed to defensive injuries. Team captain Thiago Silva has been out; Maxwell, Serge Aurier, and Layvin Kurzawa have also missed time. With the exits of David Luiz and Gregory Van Der Wiel, PSG had only one experienced defender, Marquinos, by the end of the Saint-Etienne match.

Will Arsenal’s offensive threat be enough to capitalize? In eight halves of league play, the Gunners seemed fluid in one, the first half at Watford. They mustered just one non-penalty shot on target in Saturday’s 2-1 victory over Southampton. That came from center back Laurent Koscielny, a bicycle-kick equalizer.

In truth, though, manager Arsène Wenger hasn’t yet fielded his first-choice attacking unit. Center forward Olivier Giroud has only appeared as a substitute, playmaker Mesut Özil had limited action in the season’s first two matches, and Alexis played just a half-hour on Saturday.

If Granit Xhaka and Aaron Ramsey are also candidates for the first XI, we’d have to say the Gunners haven’t deployed their firepower in full.

Whether Wenger decides to open up in Paris is an intriguing question. When Arsenal have had poor results in Europe, the cause has most often been unwise aggression. The Gunners have been undone by continentals’ tactical savvy and efficient finishing. So there’s a case for a more circumspect approach here.

That would include enhanced positional awareness and flow in the midfield. PSG’s biggest strength, developed under Blanc, is in the center of the park. Marco Veratti, Blaise Matuidi, Thiago Motta, and Adrien Rabiot are all smooth conductors of play. It wouldn’t be a surprise for Wenger to choose Xhaka and Mohammed Elneny as a partnership to try to counter PSG there.

Their relative freshness—and that of their teammates farther forward--gives the manager flexibility he’s rarely enjoyed. As he remarked in his pre-match press conference, “I haven’t decided. The players don’t know the team.”

How he clarifies his thinking will be telling.

Key Matchup

Nacho Monreal against Lucas Moura. What dynamism PSG have generated thus far has come from the Brazilian winger. He’s a crafty presence, shown by the average of 4.1 dribbles he’s attempted every 90 minutes he’s played. Monreal held up well as Southampton tried to isolate him. He’ll need a similar performance and more support against Lucas.

Where to Worry

Arsenal’s midfield left too many gaps against Southampton, especially in the first 20 minutes. The Gunners can’t allow their hosts’ slick passers time to find their forwards, even if the likes of Edison Cavani and Angel Di María have been less than efficient in front of goal.

Match Verdict

Midfield skill will be on display, but the sides’ strengths in this area will likely cancel each other out. Loose defending permits a goal each. Arsenal emerges with a draw in its toughest group match.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. The Frenchman has an opportunity to silence some of his homeland critics. He’ll face a PSG backline unsettled by injury and unused to his brand of physical play.

PSG. Angel Di María. The Argentine is PSG’s creative mind. He’s capable of magical moments off the dribble, with the pass, and on free kicks.

Arsenal 0 Barcelona 2: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal succumbed to the title holders as Barcelona took a 2-0 Champions League victory at Emirates Stadium on Tuesday evening.

Lionel Messi’s two second-half goals, the first on a counter-attack in the 71^st minute and the second from the penalty spot 12 minutes later, sealed Arsenal’s first-leg fate and, in all probability, a sixth-consecutive exit at this stage of the competition.

It’s not worth wallowing in or overanalyzing a loss to such a talented, accomplished, and dominant side, but here are three things we can take away from this match.

Arsenal lacked the required precision

Against opponents of this caliber, Arsenal had to be almost perfect in both planning and execution. The overall approach—to defend with diligence and coordination and to take opportunities on the break—kept the Gunners level through three quarters of the match.

In the early stages, Arsenal actually posed a threat, suggesting that manager Arsène Wenger thought an early goal could have been decisive or, barring that, an assertive stance might give Barcelona some doubts about its own defensive solidity.

This plan worked reasonably well. Through 65 minutes, the two teams had the same number of shots on target.

Then the execution wavered, just for a moment, all the ruthless attacking trio of Messi, Neymar, and Luis Suarez needed.

A headed clearance from the Barcelona area goes left, with all 11 Arsenal players inside the Barcelona half. Right back Hector Bellerin, midfielder Francis Coquelin, and center half Per Mertesacker converge on Neymar, who avoids all their attentions and passes to Suarez on the touch line. Laurent Koscielny is there with Suarez but fails to prevent his return ball to Neymar. From that point, the gig is up.

As Wenger said after the match, there were several ways to stop or slow that move, and the Gunners took none of them. More precise thought and action by Mertesacker, Coquelin, and Koscielny, in particular, might have snuffed out that particular attack. If that came at the expense of a yellow card, well, that would have been a worthwhile sacrifice under the circumstances.

The second goal resulted from another sequence of imprecise decisions and actions, these by Mertesacker and substitute Mathieu Flamini. Messi, as he does, exacted the punishment.

Arsenal’s goalmouth contagion shows no signs of subsiding

Most everyone expected that Arsenal would get few chances to score against this dominant Barcelona side. The directive, then, was to put away those opportunities that did come. The problem was that this objective ran against the Gunners’ recent attacking habits.

They finished goalless for the fifth time in the last eight matches.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain had the most obvious chance, when Bellerin’s shot rebounded to him right in front of goal in the 22^nd minute. With Barcelona keeper Marc-André ter Stegen already prostrate, Chamberlain kicked straight at the keeper when it may have been easier to score.

That was one of Arsenal’s three “Big Chances,” according to FourFourTwo StatsZone. The others fell to Olivier Giroud and Aaron Ramsey. Giroud forced a decent save from ter Stegen with a contested header in the 60^th minute, while Ramsey couldn’t poke home the equalizer from Danny Welbeck’s knockdown.

The suffering was more widespread in Arsenal’s scoreless FA Cup draw with Hull City last weekend, when eight Gunners took a total of 15 shots inside the Hull penalty area. Someone needs to overcome this grippe soon.

Hector Bellerin is the real deal

Bellerin’s emergence isn’t news. But on the biggest European stage, against the most formidable European opponent who happen to be his former employers, the young Spanish right back excelled.

When he came face-to-face with the tricky Neymar, Bellerin held his own. He was also able to wriggle out of pressure and made mostly sound decisions to clear the ball or to work it to a teammate. Bellerin’s speed also enhanced Arsenal’s counter-attacking threat, as in his blocked shot that fell to Oxlade-Chamberlain.

The stats reveal Bellerin’s solid performance. He succeeded on three of four tackles, made both the clearances he tried, and logged seven ball recoveries, tied for the most on the team with Koscielny. Bellerin also got past his man with four of seven dribbles, second on Arsenal behind Alexis, who was six of nine.

Extra time

Danny Welbeck is making a strong case for a regular starting spot. The forward, just three matches back from injury, played almost 20 minutes on Tuesday after 67 minutes three days earlier and brought a combination of speed and strength that troubled Barcelona. He outwitted and outran Javier Mascherano for one long ball, and his strong yet adept header to Ramsey nearly produced the equalizing goal.

It may not matter whether Oxlade-Chamberlain’s injury forces him to the sidelines; Welbeck, his own fitness permitting, should get a run in the team.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Dinamo Zagreb: 72-Hour Revenge Therapy

Tuesday’s Champions League clash with Dinamo Zagreb might be the ideal occasion for Arsenal. With an overwhelming display, the Gunners can ease the disappointment from their rotten performance and luck in Croatia and their unfortunate Premier League result on Saturday against West Bromwich Albion.

The payback will be all the sweeter against a known offender of performance-enhancing drug rules. Dinamo midfielder Arijan Ademi failed even UEFA’s superficial drug test after the home leg in September. UEFA has suspended Ademi for four years, a verdict that’s been appealed.

That development makes the timing perfect for Arsenal. Ademi’s absence will affect the muscularity--ahem--of the Dinamo midfield, and it will emphasize the points Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger has made recently about doping in football.

Wenger has embarked on a solo campaign on the issue, beginning with his fascinating interview with L’Equipe Sport & Style’s Erik Bielderman (translated for Arseblog here). Wenger told Beilderman:

In 30 years as a manager, I’ve never had my players injected to make them better. I never gave them any product that would help enhance their performance. I’m proud of that. I’ve played against many teams that weren’t in that frame of mind.

The European governing body doesn’t seem to have appreciated the manager’s forthrightness. According to Wenger, UEFA has stepped up its oversight all right—of Arsenal.

“What I do know is that I came out on that [issue], and as a result we had a doping control from UEFA on Friday!” Wenger revealed at his pre-match press conference on Monday. “We had 10 people on Friday to control us!”

And he returned UEFA’s fire, saying the rule permitting victories to stand despite positive doping results “means you basically accept doping.”

There’s no better way for Arsenal’s players to support their manager than by laying waste to Dinamo Zagreb.

Certainly, the gap in talent makes Arsenal capable of doing that. Mesut Özil and Alexis Sanchez, in particular, provide an offensive threat that the Croatian side rarely sees.

The complicating factors facing Arsenal aren’t novel. The Gunners will have to cope with an extensive injury list, which since Saturday includes midfield linchpin Francis Coquelin, and they’ll be facing an obdurate defense.

Dinamo Zagreb’s plan at home was to frustrate the Arsenal attack and take advantage of any mental lapses. It worked the charm, as lazy tracking by Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, inattentive defending of a corner, and Olivier Giroud’s red card doomed Arsenal to a 2-1 defeat. Manager Zoran Mamic will rely on an intensified version of this approach in London.

Mamic will be encouraged by Arsenal’s inability to break through West Brom’s deeply packed defense on Saturday. Arsenal had 73 percent possession but managed just three shots on target (of 11 shots total), according to FourFourTwo's StatsZone. And one of those, Giroud’s headed goal, came from a free kick.

The Gunners will need to move the ball more quickly and more imaginatively, ideally early in Tuesday’s match, to give Dinamo Zagreb what they have coming and to put recent flat performances behind them.

Regaining energy in this way may even be a more important objective than retaining hope of qualifying for the Champions League knockout stage. Arsenal need a victory against Dinamo and an Olympiacos loss at Bayern Munich to keep that possibility alive. If those two outcomes happen, Arsenal would need a two-goal win over Olympiacos in Athens in two weeks to reach the competition’s final 16.

In other words, in so many respects, this match calls for the maximum from Arsenal.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Alexis. Improbably, the Chilean devil rediscovered his verve against West Brom. If he can summon similar energy on Tuesday, Dinamo Zagreb won’t be able to handle him.
Dinamo Zagreb. Domajoc Antolic. The club captain returns from injury and must replace Ademi’s physical presence in midfield if Dinamo’s plan to frustrate Arsenal is to work.

Bayern Munich 5 Arsenal 1: Three Things We Learned

Bayern Munich swamped Arsenal 5-1 on Wednesday, putting the Gunners’ hopes of qualifying for the Champions League knockout phase for the 16^th consecutive season in considerable doubt.

With Bayern’s dominant, three-goal first half, this result was foregone by halftime. The night’s meaningful question was what would happen in Athens, where Olympiacos trailed Dinamo Zagreb and gave the Gunners hope that they might still control their European destiny.

Olympiacos scored late to win, though, meaning Arsenal must win its final two matches, including at least a two-goal win on the group stage’s last night in Athens, and trust Bayern to beat the Greek team, to move on.

That’s the big conclusion of the night. Here are three other things we learned.

Arsène Wenger has the Premier League in his sights

The Arsenal manager invariably speaks about his focus on the next game and how it’s the most important. There was a hint of something else prior to this match, though.

Wenger kept star defenders Laurent Koscielny and Hector Bellerin out of Wednesday’s action, allowing them to recover from “small” injuries in advance of a major Premier League test against Tottenham on Sunday.

That decision is worth noting.

It suggests the manager and his staff sense an opportunity to compete for the league title and that they’re willing to put the European campaign aside to enhance that domestic opportunity. Doing so requires wisdom and restraint, particularly because Wenger has long coveted the top European trophy.

No doubt he expected a less damning result in Munich, but as long as he and his players can put it in the vault, this continental setback won’t be any more consequential for their league prospects than was the 3-2 loss to Olympiacos. We shouldn’t forget that that defeat immediately preceded Arsenal’s 3-0 destruction of Manchester United.

The first goal was the killer

The early moments of the game were actually promising for Arsenal. The Gunners had a shot in anger in the opening minute, passed crisply when they had the ball, and forced Bayern into shots from distance.

Hope of another upset was largely snuffed out by Robert Lewandowski’s 10^th-minute header. The Polish striker slipped the attentions of Gabriel, who was alone among the Arsenal back line in dropping deep when Thiago had the ball near the right corner of Arsenal’s penalty area. Lewandowski’s well-placed effort gave Arsenal goalkeeper Petr Cech no chance.

This early goal meant Arsenal could not absorb the Bayern pressure as the Gunners had so successfully done two weeks ago. They had to seek a tying goal, creating the space and time on the ball that Bayern was designed to exploit. The only question was how ruthlessly they would do so.

Having lost to Arsenal, the German giants weren’t inclined to let up. That intensity—plus Arsenal’s sub-par defensive effort and ill fortune with officiating—sealed the Gunners fate on the day.

Arsenal’s first-choice defense is a well-oiled machine

Replacing Bellerin with Mathieu Debuchy and Koscielny with Gabriel shrank Arsenal’s margin of error. Indeed, the changes caused enough instability for Bayern’s talent to thrive.

A poorly synchronized back line left Lewandowski onside for the opening goal, and Debuchy’s tendency to drift into the center gave Bayern’s dangerous wide men the run of their left flank. The Frenchman wasn’t even effective at clogging the middle, failing to clear a pass that then fell to Thomas Müller, who fired off Per Mertesacker and into the net for Bayern’s second goal.

On Arsenal’s left, Bayern finally found a way to isolate left back Nacho Monreal, using runners from midfield to occupy Arsenal’s central midfielders Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla. This often left Monreal trying to cover two men on his own, Philipp Lahm and Müller or substitute Arjen Robben, because left forward Alexis was understandably focused on attacking. As a result, Bayern always had an outlet and frequently produced uncontested passes into more dangerous areas.

It was quite a contrast from the defensive performances Arsenal’s preferred lineup has delivered this season. The unit of Cech, Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, and Monreal has won all of its matches while conceding just three goals, one at Crystal Palace and two at Leicester City. Crucially, though, the group has played together in just five of Arsenal’s 17 matches in the Premier League, Champions League, and Capital One Cup.

The ability to field that unit consistently might well determine Arsenal’s fortunes in the Premier League.

Extra time

Fair play to Mathieu Debuchy and Olivier Giroud, who kept plugging despite the obvious outcome of this match. Debuchy scampered back to rob Robben of a goal after the Dutchman had rounded Cech, and Giroud produced an exquisite chest control and lashing finish. Such moments were all the more noticeable because they were rare.

Champions League Match Preview, Bayern Munich v Arsenal: Use Their Anger Against Them

Arsenal confront an apparently enraged Bayern Munich in Germany on Matchday Four of the UEFA Champions League.

The Gunners’ 2-0 win over the previously omnipotent side two weeks ago seems to have stirred up Pep Guardiola’s charges. Star striker Robert Lewandowski, who had two goal-bound shots saved by Arsenal’s Petr Cech at the Emirates, said, “We desperately need the points. We have to show who is the better team.”

Bayern’s motivation isn’t lost on Arsenal. According to Per Mertesacker, who likely enjoys some back-channel communications with several compatriots in the Bavarian side, “They will be angry I guess. We are the first team who really challenged them, so they will be on the ball and try to show that they are back and better than us.” (Arsenal.com)

There’s no question of Bayern’s quality. They’re the Bundesliga’s juggernaut and one of the two best teams in Europe. Guardiola has skillfully mixed the experience of players like Philipp Lahm and Xabi Alonso with the guile of Douglas Costa and Arjen Robben and the firepower of Thomas Müller and Lewandowki.

Arsenal witnessed the threat in Matchday Three, but the Gunners did not cower. Bayern’s skill in and dominance of possession failed to carry the day. That’s largely because Arsenal stayed disciplined in defense, forced Bayern to pass around the perimeter, and intervened only at the most opportune moments.

It’s likely to be the same approach at the Allianz Arena, perhaps with a slight variation. If Bayern let too much emotion affect their style and decisions, they’ll be vulnerable to a martial arts-style response from Arsenal. Frustrate them for another period of time, and they might be more prone to mistakes. Particularly on set pieces.

Arsenal also can’t allow changes in personnel to affect the proceedings too much. A different Gunner will have to summon the energy and intelligence of Aaron Ramsey on the right side of midfield. That’s especially important given the wide threat posed by Costa and Robben, who missed the London leg due to injury.

Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger may rejigger the midfield, bringing in Mathieu Flamini as part of a 4-3-3 formation, but a more likely choice will be to replace Ramsey with Joel Campbell. The Costa Rican had an excellent Premier League debut at Swansea on Saturday, scoring the team’s third goal and displaying a keen will for defending. He’ll have to match that performance—if not improve it—against Bayern.

As if facing Bayern’s wide men weren’t enough of a challenge, Campbell will have to manage the threat with a different right back. Due to Hector Bellerin’s groin injury, Mathieu Debuchy will get the start. The French international has the pedigree to compete in such a headline game; the question is his form. His performances so far this season, including in last week’s Capital One Cup loss at Sheffield Wednesday, have been rusty and unimpressive, to put it charitably. For Arsenal to stay in this contest, Debuchy will have to rise to a very big occasion.

At stake is the Gunners’ control over their own Champions League fate. Escaping Munich with a draw would mean Arsenal could qualify for the knockout phase with wins in their final two matches, regardless of the other results. A win would put them in even better position, level on points with Bayern and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.

Losing tonight, though, would hand the initiative to Olympiacos. If the Greek team beats Dinamo Zagreb in Athens this evening, a draw against Bayern in two weeks would secure passage to the knockout stage and destroy Arsenal’s chances of progressing.

There’s still a lot of football to be played and therefore a variety of possible outcomes in the competition. But those outcomes will look a lot more promising if Arsenal avoid losing this evening.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal: Olivier Giroud. Arsenal’s center forward changed the complexion of the match at the Emirates, winning the physical battles with Bayern’s central defenders and scoring the decisive goal. The Frenchman, who has six goals in his last six matches for club and country, has also scored at the Allianz Arena before. Another opportunistic goal would strengthen the Gunners immeasurably.
Bayern Munich: Arjen Robben. You can’t take your eyes off that pointy, bald head anyway, so you might as well watch the Dutchman. Although everyone knows his signature move, he’s so quick and wily he’s still difficult to stop. Debuchy and/or Nacho Monreal, and importantly, the assistance they get from Arsenal’s midfielders and forwards, will be sorely tested.

Arsenal 2 Bayern Munich 0: Three Things We Learned

On an incredible night at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal overcame Bayern Munich 2-0, recharging the Gunners’ UEFA Champions League campaign with a victory over the team anointed best in the world.

A scrappy set-piece goal by substitute Olivier Giroud and a stoppage-time clincher by Mesut Özil, assisted by the irrepressible Hector Bellerin, undid Bayern and made imaginable another qualification for the competition’s knockout phase. That prospect seemed remote prior to Tuesday.

Calming down enough to analyze a such an emotional match takes effort, but here are three things we think we learned from the encounter.

This Arsenal team can produce the memories

Supporters follow sport for scenarios like this: Arsenal faced a mighty opponent in a headline affair, performed solidly but without much of its trademark creativity for much of the match, then struck when the opportunities arose.

This is what so many of us look for on European nights, recognizing that the Gunners may not win the competition in the end but hoping for transcendent performances to remember. The turnaround of fortunes—the likes of which Arsenal have certainly experienced from the other side—made the magic all the more memorable.

If you can’t take a few days to enjoy that, well, you need a different pastime.

It was a different plotline from the other indelible memory of the season so far, the 3-0 dismantling of Manchester United. Unlike in that contest, Arsenal did not carry the play against Bayern. The quality of the passing, the quickness of thought and movement, the incomparable skill were not what won the day.

Instead, the Gunners were unified, determined, organized but flexible, and opportunistic. They seized the game's three decisive moments—Petr Cech’s save on the heretofore unstoppable Robert Lewandowski, Giroud’s headlong commitment in case Bayern suffered a defensive lapse, and Bellerin’s late steal, surge, and perfect pass to Özil. In the process, they generated happiness among supporters, confidence for themselves, and respect from opponents and neutrals.

No matter what happens in Munich or Athens, where qualification will likely be decided, we’ll always have the Emirates on 20 October.

This Arsenal defense is a match-winner

Tuesday's success required a comprehensive defensive performance. And that's what Arsenal delivered.

The Gunners controlled the dangerous spaces throughout the match and rendered sterile Bayern's advantage in possession. As a result, Arsenal's defensive statistics were not particularly impressive: 24 tackles, 19 interceptions, 18 clearances. (Numbers from Opta via FourFourTwo's StatsZone app)

But eight blocked shots were evidence of Arsenal's commitment and contributed to Bayern's laboring to get a clear sight of goal. The Bavarian side enjoyed just two "Big Chances," in the parlance of the StatsZone app, Lewandowski's effort midway through the second half and Thiago's pointblank shot early on. Cech was equal to the task both times.

Meanwhile, despite making just one pass for every three made by Bayern, Arsenal created four big chances and scored two of them.

Bayern looked dangerous many times, particularly left winger Douglas Costa in the first half. But when Costa escaped Bellerin, an Arsenal player was there to intercept the pass or snuff out the dribble.

On Arsenal's left, Bayern tried various approaches and personnel against Nacho Monreal. None succeeded. Thomas Müller, the lethal forward, got so little out of his battle with Monreal that he surrendered his spot on the right to Arturo Vidal, whom Monreal controlled as well. Efforts to outnumber the Gunners on that flank similarly came to nothing.

In the center, Per Mertesacker controlled the airways and Laurent Koscielny made several critical interventions as Lewandowski threatened. Just ahead of them, Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla attended to the dangers in Bayern's buildup play.

Those attentions did not always prove adequate, but Cech was an impregnable last line of defense, stopping all six shots Bayern put on goal.

Arsène Wenger pulled all the right levers

The Arsenal manager sent out his charges with clear directions: Control the space, not the ball. Try to frustrate Bayern. Then hit on the counterattack.

When the initial formation, with Alexis on the left and Özil farther forward, showed some vulnerabilities, the setup shifted. Alexis moved upfield closer to Theo Walcott, Özil retreated to work with Monreal on the left, and Arsenal took on a deep-lying 4-4-2 shape.

As Wenger explained, "When we were playing halfway, they opened us up too much, so I decided to drop Ozil a bit deeper and to make it tight around the box and catch them on the break because we have the pace to do it and to find some space with the game going on."

This freed Alexis, Arsenal's danger man, from the challenging defensive situation on Arsenal's left, where Müller, Thiago, and right back Philipp Lahm tried without success to overwhelm Monreal, and allowed the Chilean to pose an additional threat to Bayern's high defensive line.

Worn down by Arsenal's speed, perhaps, Bayern's central defenders had difficulty coping with the physical presence of Giroud when he replaced Walcott in the 74th minute. Three minutes later, Giroud drew a foul, fought his way through the defensive line, and capitalized when goalkeeper Manuel Neuer failed to claim Cazorla's free kick.

Extra time

Giroud is a game-changer. He delivered his fourth goal in his last six substitute appearances. He could have had another later but wasn't able to generate the necessary power to his free header. The Frenchman was also an outlet for Arsenal's back line for the 17 minutes in the lead and shored up Arsenal's set-piece defending during the final stretch of this famous victory.

Champions League Match Preview, Dinamo Zagreb v Arsenal: Start Smart

Arsenal’s trip to Croatia to open the Champions League campaign will test the side’s intelligence.

Although Dinamo Zagreb’s talent shouldn’t be underestimated, Arsenal’s skill, speed, strength, and stamina have to be superior on paper. It’s the mental qualities, though, that so often determine success in European play. And the Gunners still have something to prove in that respect.

There were the two disastrous home performances against Anderlecht and Monaco in last year’s competition, when the necessary focus and savvy escaped Arsenal and expected victories didn’t materialize. This season’s home Premier League opener against West Ham turned on two mental errors; that was proof that Arsenal’s superior physical talents can still fail to carry the day.

Manager Arsène Wenger and his players have recognized the mental requirements, particularly in a six-game, round-robin tournament. Wenger said this week:

It is important we go to Zagreb highly focused and conscious of what is at stake there. You can be quickly out of the Champions League, and we want to start well….

Left back Nacho Monreal made similar points in his pre-match comments, saying,

You don’t play too many games, so if you make a mistake, you pay for it. You have to be really focused in each game, and the level is higher. The difference is small, but you have to be really focused.

Arsenal’s quest to reach and maintain that mental level will be important and interesting in several respects. First, this match is the first in a challenging run of four matches away from home and could influence the team’s performances against Chelsea on Saturday, against Tottenham next week in the Capital One Cup, and against Leceister on September 26.

It’s also happening four days after the team’s best outing of the season so far, the 2-0 win over Stoke City. How do the manager and the team capitalize on that performance using an adjusted lineup?

We know that Saturday’s starters Hector Bellerin and Aaron Ramsey haven’t made the trip to Zagreb, so Mathieu Debuchy and, presumably, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will have to blend their contributions into the team’s style and efforts.

Unlike some of their predecessors on the substitutes’ bench, Debuchy and Oxlade-Chamberlain are well positioned to profit from the opportunity. Both are full internationals with substantial experience and talents suited to European competition. Debuchy’s toughness, aerial ability, and reading of the game and Oxlade-Chamberlain’s strength and speed are distinctive advantages against wily European opponents.

Wenger noted the improved quality of his options in his pre-match press conference, observing: “It is quite easy to change two or three players, [more] than it was in years before because they are all at a very good level.”

They’ll need to play and think at that elite level because Dinamo Zagreb are no pushovers. The Croatian champions are on a 41-game unbeaten run in all competitions and have outscored their three most recent home opponents 13-1. That record underlines the attacking threat of Angelo Henriquez, Armin Hodzic, and Soudani. The trio has combined for 18 goals already in domestic and European competitions. (Stats from Opta via whoscored.com.)

The problem for Dinamo is that they haven’t yet faced a team that required them to sit deep and defend. And, even when circumstances have dictated a defensive approach, they haven’t been able to execute one. The striking example: After scoring three early goals in a Champions League qualifier at Molde, Dinamo conceded three goals and advanced only by virtue of away goals.

Arsenal showed against Stoke City what it can do to teams whose defenses are not finely calibrated and executed. With a physical effort on that level, combined with the proper focus and intelligence, the Gunners should generate a promising launch to their Champions League campaign and upcoming domestic schedule.