Match Preview, Arsenal v Southampton: Saints and Serendipity

What’s the proper preview of Southampton’s visit to the Emirates on Sunday?

Many Arsenal fans will not consider this match of any great import; after all, there’s little chance of the Gunners achieving a Champions League position by the end of the season. The opportunity to overtake Chelsea, currently five points ahead in fifth place, might not excite many, either.

Those from the South Coast, threatened with relegation, will see things differently, but their concern is not ours.

The appropriate frame of mind might also be difficult to reach so soon after Thursday’s scintillating win over CSKA Moscow in the Europa League. A mundane, low-stakes league fixture will always pale in comparison to that simultaneously manic and brilliant European performance.

Yet the potential for even glimpses at a similar spectacle should be motivation enough for supporters to pay attention to every match Arsenal play.

The possibility that one of Arsenal’s gifted creators could be afforded the space that Mesut Özil enjoyed at the edge of the opponents’ penalty area. That he would spot the space identified by Aaron Ramsey or another skillful attacker. That this teammate would then share with us a work of absolute genius, somehow figuring the angle of the pass, the likely position of the goalkeeper, the perfect spot for his heel, to score a goal like Ramsey’s second against CSKA Moscow.

There might be another moment like that against Southampton. We have no idea. Would you really be justified in the simpleton’s protections of cynicism or apathy when serendipity reigns so?

The unexpected is always in the cards, particularly with the number of lineup changes we’re likely to see. Last week’s league starting XI was definitely conceived with Thursday’s first knockout leg in mind. Calum Chambers, Mohammed Elneny, and Danny Welbeck all got run-outs against Stoke; they probably will feature again.

Questions come over the participation of the architects of the recent European success, Özil and Ramsey. The pair needs to fire again in Moscow, so manager Arsène Wenger may rest both against Southampton. In that case, ingenuity might be in short supply.

Perhaps Alex Iwobi provides a surprise in that respect. He’s certainly due a good performance. Or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang capitalizes on one of the few opportunities he gets—we know the Ghanaian is more than capable.

Whatever the developments, let’s not allow the narrative of subdued expectations to ruin the possibility of a magical moment.

Match Verdict

Arsenal’s strong home form continues, though as against Stoke the goals are not quick in arriving. Southampton’s position becomes more perilous.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Sead Kolasinac. After a storming introduction to Arsenal, the Bosnian’s effectiveness cooled. He’ll likely give Nacho Monreal a respite at left back, where his powerful runs could trouble Southampton’s right side.

Southampton. Charlie Austin. The Saints’ big galoot and top scorer flat out embarrassed the Gunners’ defense at St. Mary’s earlier this season. His early goal extended his match scoring streak to three against Arsenal. He’ll take advantage if the home team’s back line engages in further risky play.

Match Preview, Southampton v Arsenal: Don't Believe the Hype

Occasionally, after particularly positive Arsenal results, I’ll break with pattern and review some immediate post-match analysis. I figure in so doing I can revel in the good feeling, which is one of the reasons I devote my time to following the club.

Such was my decision after the Gunners’ 2-0 win over Manchester United on Sunday. And I regretted it.

NBC Sports spent the first segment of its studio show talking about Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho. Nothing about who had performed well for Arsenal. Or about tactical adjustments that might have worked to Arsenal’s advantage. Nothing, even, about the Gunners’ ability to seize the moments that were presented them.

I then turned to The Guardian’s match report, hoping the hour or so of reflection had allowed its writer to reflect more substantively on the proceedings. Same story, essentially.

What’s this got to do with Arsenal’s match against Southampton on Wednesday?

It’s relevant because the obsession with the easy, popular narrative can make us miss some interesting developments. We’ll hear, for example, about the long odds of Arsenal’s qualification for the Champions League and about the club’s poor record at Southampton.

Both accurate observations, but not at all interesting.

Instead, we could be thinking about Danny Welbeck. He scored another winner against his former club on Sunday, and his attributes were part of Arsenal’s solution to an opponent’s blocking intentions. (Watch Adrian Clarke’s excellent Breakdown of some of the other moves, such as the deliberate movements of Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Özil.)

Will Welbeck’s fitness permit another start so soon?

Or can the midfield partnership of Granit Xhaka and Aaron Ramsey continue to flourish? Again, fitness will play an essential role in the answer, what with Xhaka’s ongoing lower-leg woes. If the Swiss can go, that can only boost the team’s efforts to establish some flow through the midfield.

In defense, there’s a doubt about the availability of linchpin Laurent Koscielny, according to manager Arsène Wenger. Given his impressive contributions on Sunday and the wily play of Southampton striker Manolo Gabbiadini, Arsenal will be hoping the on-pitch captain can play. Without him, can Shkodran Mustafi come straight back from his own injury into a new system, and who’s going to marshal the defense from the central position in the back three?

These are all much more compelling questions to me than the unanswerable ones about the manager’s future, the team’s Champions League prospects, transfer needs, and history on the South Coast.

They’re drawn from the actual stuff of professional football—two groups of 11 elite athletes competing and, if we’re lucky, providing some surprises with their determination, physical gifts, and intelligence.

Like those two moments on Sunday when Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Özil skipped over ham-fisted attempts by Wayne Rooney to tackle them.

Key Matchup

Manolo Gabbiadini against Arsenal’s central defenders. There’s been a noticeable improvement in Arsenal’s defense since the introduction of the 3-4-2-1 structure. Gabbiadini, despite being in woeful goalscoring form, creates a tricky challenge, with the likes of Nathan Redmond and Dusan Tadic supporting him.

Where to Worry

If Xhaka can’t play due to injury, Arsenal’s transitions will suffer. That’s especially concerning against Southampton because the Saints midfield is very skilled at disrupting the opposition’s flow. Would the response be a double pivot of Ramsey and Oxlade-Chamberlain?

Match Verdict

I have no idea what to expect. Both teams had successful outings at the weekend. Arsenal still have something to play for but an abysmal road record of late. Southampton have little obvious motivation and problems scoring goals, but they enjoy the home support. Let’s just accept the uncertainty and see what happens.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. The England man scored twice here in the FA Cup this year. He also delivered the coup de grace to his old team on Sunday. He can make his case to lead the line for the rest of the season and, perhaps, beyond.

Southampton. Oriol Romeu. Southampton’s defensive midfielder has put in some standout performances this season. He’s a formidable barrier to the Saints’ somewhat makeshift back line.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Southampton: Changes Coming

We can expect another change in complexion for Arsenal's EFL Cup quarterfinal match with Southampton on Wednesday.

Manager Arsène Wenger made seven alterations to his starting lineup between last Wednesday’s Champions League draw with Paris-Saint Germain and Sunday’s 3-1 league win over Bournemouth. The only holdovers were central defenders Laurent Koscielny and Shkodran Mustafi, playmaker Mesut Özil, and center forward Alexis Sanchez.

Selecting that quartet for two high-profile matches shows its importance to the current Arsenal team. In all likelihood, Koscielny, Mustafi, Özil, and Alexis will get a deserved rest against Southampton. They will have few opportunities for days off before the return fixture against Bournemouth on January 2.

In their places, Wenger will send out young players and squad stalwarts—Rob Holding and Gabriel in the center of defense, for example, and Alex Iwobi in the attacking midfield.

The center forward choice will be an interesting one. Recent league supersub Olivier Giroud would get the nod up front, but he tweaked his groin on Sunday and may need more time to recover. Lucas Perez will be in the squad after a month-injury absence; he might not be ready to start, though.

The other options would be Theo Walcott, replaced by Giroud after 75 minutes on Sunday, Iwobi as part of a fluid front four, or debutante Stephy Mavididi. None ideal. As a result, Wenger may have to fend off arguments from the indefatigable and insistent Alexis for another run-out.

We’ll also see Kieran Gibbs return to left back and Francis Coquelin to the center of midfield. Other candidates for starting roles include Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Jeff Reine-Adelaide, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Chris Willock.

All have earned playing time in Arsenal’s two wins in this competition. They’ll be backed by goalkeeper Emi Martinez.

This group will face its stiffest test in this competition so far. Not only are Southampton the first top-flight side to play Arsenal in this year’s cup, the Saints have posed serious challenges to the Gunners of late. Arsenal’s 2-1, stoppage-time, league win in September was just their second in seven outings against Southampton. That included a 2-1 loss in this competition two years ago.

Like Wenger, Southampton manager Claude Puel should adjust his starting XI from the one that defeated Everton 1-0 at the weekend. The Saints’ schedule is just as busy as the Gunners’, with a return to London against Crystal Palace and a crunch Europa League matchup with Hapoel Be’er Sheva in the next eight days.

There’s also precedent for Puel to rotate for this competition. He switched nine starters between Southampton’s league draw at Manchester City and the 1-0 home win over Sunderland in the last round.

Key Matchup

Alex Iwobi against Harrison Reed and Jordy Clasie. If Özil does get the break as anticipated, much of Arsenal’s creative burden will fall to Iwobi. He has not made much of an impact recently—as is normal for players who burst into the first team. Southampton are a difficult team to unlock, largely because their deep midfielders and defenders work so well together. Iwobi will need to find his daring and execution to create chances for his teammates.

Where to Worry

Shane Long annoys Arsenal every time he faces them. The Irish striker is tireless both in his running and in his niggly fouling. He’ll try to get under Gabriel’s skin and hope for a mistake from the relatively inexperienced defensive partnership of Arsenal.

Match Verdict

This one has the makings of a cagey and uneven affair. Because both teams will have relatively new makeups, synching the attacks might prove difficult. The heightened, if only mildly, pressure of a quarterfinal with Wembley on the distant horizon might also have a psychological effect on the players.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. His double propelled Arsenal to a 2-0 win over Reading in the last round. The incentive of facing his former club, plus his improved performances aside from his North London Derby cameo, could push him to make a telling impact here.

Southampton. Stuart Taylor. The ex-Arsenal man, now 36, may get his Southampton debut in goal in the absence of Alex McCarthy. He’ll need all that experience and good relationships with his back four to keep Arsenal’s youthful attack from bamboozling him.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Southampton: New Boys Rewrite Old Tale

After an eventful international break, Arsenal host Southampton on Saturday. It will be the first home match since the ignominious, season-opening loss to Liverpool. That seems long ago.

The Emirates Stadium will see a substantially different squad this weekend. Not only are the team’s top players—Alexis, Mesut Özil, Laurent Koscielny—now ready for action, they will be joined by recent arrivals Shkodran Mustafi and Lucas Pérez.

As a result, manager Arsène Wenger has a deeper pool of talent and experience to plumb for his starting lineup. Wenger admitted as much in his pre-match press conference, saying “It’s the first time in a long time that I’ve had a team of what you can call men ready to compete.”

Southampton will, as always, test how ready these Gunners are.

Although three league matches aren’t enough to determine patterns of play and statistical trends, it does seem that new Saints manager Claude Puel is departing from the style of his predecessor Ronald Koeman. As Adrian Clarke explains in his “Chalkboard” segment on the Official Arsenal Weekly Podcast, Puel has installed a 4-4-2 formation with a midfield diamond of Oriol Romeu, Steven Davis, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, and Dusan Tadic.

This presents two opportunities to Arsenal. The Gunners can gain numerical superiority in the midfield and weave their way around their counterparts, using the skill and vision of Granit Xhaka, Santi Cazorla, and Özil to full effect. They can also exploit openings created when Southampton’s fullbacks advance to provide width to the attack. The runs of Alexis and Theo Walcott could be especially dangerous in this respect.

Whatever the path forward, the key will be finishing the chances the Gunners create. That was obviously the downfall in this fixture last season, when Arsenal took 22 shots, put 11 on target, and drew a blank. In two of three matches so far this season, scoring has not been a problem—while Southampton have failed to prevent their opponents from scoring each time out. Perhaps we can expect a different dynamic from this encounter.

Arsenal’s defense will most likely have a different look. Mustafi will probably take over from Rob Holding beside Koscielny, giving the Gunners an experienced, aggressive central defensive tandem. Mustafi’s decision-making will be tested right away by the wily and speedy Saints attackers Nathan Redmond and Shane Long.

In all, there should be plenty of new developments to hold the interest in this one. Let’s hope the conclusion differs from those of recent Arsenal-Southampton meetings, of which only one of the past six produced an Arsenal win.

Key Matchup

Granit Xhaka against Dusan Tadic. These two will determine which team dictates play. Tadic provides the creativity for Southampton, while Xhaka patrols the opposition’s creative zone and launches Arsenal. How each fulfills his respective offensive role while hindering his opponent will influence the course of the match.

Where to Worry

The biggest Arsenal concern is integrating new arrivals and recent returnees. How well do Mustafi and Koscielny gel at the center of the defense? Is Olivier Giroud ready to lead the line again, and can he destabilize the powerful Southampton defenders José Fonte and Virgil Van Dijk? Or will the more mobile Pérez be introduced right away, and, if so, how will he cope with the Premier League’s physicality?

Match Verdict

A protracted tactical contest in the midfield swings Arsenal’s way thanks to the mobility, variety, and intelligence of the Gunners’ front line.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Mesut Özil. This team is so much more threatening with the German playmaker in the lineup. He’s a genius at manipulating space and buying time to make the killer pass. He can also get himself into promising scoring positions, as he did in the most recent league match against Watford and in this fixture last season.

Southampton. Fraser Forster. The Saints’ #1 suffered an arm injury on England duty, but Puel says he should be ready for Saturday. Forster stood on his head in this fixture last season, and a similar performance would frustrate Arsenal and its fans.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Southampton: Wake up in February Makeup

When Arsenal welcome Southampton on Tuesday to start the month of February, the Gunners can hope to ride two trends.

During manager Arsène Wenger’s tenure, his teams have displayed a tendency to surge in the final months of league campaigns. As Amy Lawrence explains in “Arsenal Could Be Blown All the Way to Glory by Trademark Second Wind,” Wenger’s title-winning sides went on long successful runs, sometimes overhauling league leaders, in the second halves of seasons.

Indeed, in the past 10 seasons, only twice have Arsenal have dropped spots in the table during a season’s second half--in 2013-14, when the Gunners fell from first to fourth, and in 2007-08, when they dropped from first to third. On three occasions, Arsenal maintained its league position, and five times the club moved up the table.

After 19 matches of the current season, having played each league opponent once, Arsenal were top of the league. A month later, they sit third, three points behind leaders Leicester City.

The midweek date with Southampton looks like the moment to commence the characteristic charge. A victory here would also follow Arsenal’s odd and arbitrary, on-again-off-again pattern of monthly results. The Gunners went unbeaten in the league in October, then won none of their three league matches in November. December brought four wins in five, followed by a January in which the only league victory (in four matches) came on the 2^nd of the month against Newcastle.

It’s also a potential watershed match because Southampton have posed Arsenal difficulty in recent years. There’s of course the 4-0 loss at Saint Mary’s on Boxing Day, following other lackluster showings on the South Coast. At home, Arsenal haven’t exactly overwhelmed the Saints, either, needing a late Alexis strike to see off the visitors last season and an 86^th-minute Olivier Giroud penalty to secure three points the season before.

Expect this to be another tight affair. After a shaky period, Southampton appear to have sorted out the defensive issues. The Saints have held Manchester United, West Bromwich Albion, and Watford scoreless in their last three league fixtures. Those performances—and the way they shut out Arsenal in December—will probably serve as the model for Tuesday’s game plan.

The difference this time out is that Southampton won’t be able to concentrate so much attention on Mesut Özil. In the previous fixture, Southampton’s Jordy Clasie man-marked Arsenal’s playmaker and creative hub, while defensive midfield partner Victor Wanyama controlled everything else.

The return of Alexis Sanchez, whose hamstring injury preventing him from playing in December, poses problems for Southampton’s approach. If the Saints focus too much on Özil, Alexis could find more room to drive at goal. He’ll also help Arsenal harry the opposition defenders, increasing the likelihood of turnovers that he and Özil can quickly turn into threats.

Arsenal executed a similar plan to perfection against Manchester United in early October. There’s evidence that Southampton’s defenders are just as susceptible to such aggressive pressing: Pressing sides Tottenham and Liverpool both overwhelmed the Saints on their home ground in December.

A resurgence of similar energy levels and renewed focus from Arsenal, fueled by the returns of Alexis and Francis Coquelin, would change the dynamic on Tuesday. More to the point, these improvements would bode well for Arsenal’s three other important league fixtures in February and for the 11 subsequent contests to close the season.

Key Matchup

Jordy Clasie and Victor Wanyama against Mesut Özil. Without dwelling on the result, the Arsenal players and coaching staff will have studied Southampton’s approach in December and noted the focus on Özil. The German playmaker will have devised ways to free himself or to use Southampton’s attention to provide more space and time to his teammates.

That’s a less complicated task in a home match than it is on the road, and teams that come to the Emirates planning to man-mark any member of the Arsenal midfield usually regret it. Making Southampton pay for that choice, should they make it, will be important for Arsenal on Tuesday.

Where to Worry

Southampton are dangerous with crosses, headers, and set pieces. They’re the league’s most prolific crossers, with 436 in 23 matches, they have headed in 10 goals to lead the league, and their 10 goals from non-penalty set pieces rank second. Arsenal’s center back pairing of Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny will need to be attentive to this threat, and goalkeeper Petr Cech will need to continue his outstanding command of his penalty area.

Match Verdict

Both these teams will put in maximum effort. Southampton have climbed to eighth position in the league and will try to advance further. Arsenal know the necessity of reasserting home dominance if their title challenge is to persist. A gritty battle in the midfield, decided by a moment of brilliance in the forward line, seems how this match is likely to unfold. In Alexis, Arsenal again have that difference maker in attack.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Francis Coquelin. The Frenchman returned to action after a two-month layoff in Saturday’s FA Cup win over Burnley. He wasn’t in top form, as you’d expect, but his awareness and effort helped Arsenal largely control the midfield. Coquelin will be important in the same respect on Tuesday, and his lateral work should reduce Southampton’s threat from crosses. His relatively untried partnership with Aaron Ramsey in the center of the park will also be worth watching.

Southampton. Charlie Austin. The former Queens Park Rangers front man enjoyed a Southampton debut to remember last weekend, scoring the game-winning goal at Old Trafford as a substitute. If manager Ronald Koeman is reluctant to use regular starter Graziano Pellè after his three-week injury absence, Austin could lead the line; or he could come off the bench and pose a legitimate threat. After all, he scored both times Arsenal faced QPR last season.