Friday, February 24, 2017

Arsène Wenger's Sweet Spot

Recent heavy losses to Chelsea and Bayern Munich have again prompted much talk of Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger’s shortcomings.

With Wenger’s contract due to expire in June and Arsenal’s chances of supremacy in the Premier League and Champions League scuppered, strident and influential voices are saying the club and manager should part ways. His failures are cause, they say, for termination.

Terms of the debate


As ever with arguments--especially over such binary functions as Wenger In/Out—there’s a risk of constructing straw men. Even so, I’d characterize the core contentions in these ways:

  • The manager is tactically naïve
  • He has displayed an inability to motivate today’s players for the big occasion
  • He indulges too many underperforming players
  • His footballing philosophy has proven inadequate
  • Events and results have unfolded in predictable fashion

Evidence exists to support each of these points. Except the final one, which is maddening to anyone like me who has limited time for entertainment and chooses to follow sport precisely because of its potential for the unexpected.

Despite the foundations of these arguments, I would like to suggest that they don’t fully reflect Arsenal’s current state of affairs under Wenger.

Expanding the perspective


We can conduct a fuller, more accurate examination by contrasting Wenger’s FA Cup record with his team’s performances over league campaigns.

Wenger is the most decorated modern FA Cup manager. In 19 tournaments, he has raised the trophy six times. With one more success, he will be the most successful FA Cup manager of all time, moving ahead of Aston Villa’s George Ramsay (1855-1935).

Longevity and a flow of excellent players have certainly played parts in Wenger’s record.

Just as important, though, has been his philosophy and approach. What Philippe Auclair has called the manager’s “jazz” style—a less structured system encouraging individual autonomy and expression—has the potential to merge stunning aesthetics and overwhelming victories.

That brilliance and beauty can be rare and fleeting, but when they coincide, we witness an extraordinary sporting accomplishment. The most recent example was Arsenal’s 4-0 demolition of Aston Villa in the 2015 FA Cup Final.

Another element of skill in knockout competitions is avoiding major upsets. In this, Wenger has unquestionably succeeded. Only once in his tenure have Arsenal lost to a lower-division team in the FA Cup. That 2013 defeat to Blackburn was a real low point.

The point here is that discrete, win-and-advance matches in which conditions are level or slightly favor Arsenal bring out the best in Wenger’s sides.

Points of contrast


In other, high-profile situations, the approach has been found wanting. The Champions League knockout stages are the most stinging recent example.
 
Wenger’s style doesn’t thrive one-on-one with Europe’s elites because conditions are rarely neutral. Whether it’s officiating, higher-pedigree and richer opposition, less-advantageous scheduling, or other factors, Arsenal find the going difficult at the business end of the Champions League.

His freeform philosophy can also be detrimental on the frequent occasions that tactical precision and structure carry European nights.

For 13 years, the ultimate achievement has eluded Wenger in the Premier League as well.

Each campaign, Arsenal start with an incredibly tight margin of error. It’s so narrow due to the strong correlation between financial outlay on transfer fees and wages and the final league finish. And let’s keep in mind that if the title is the only measure of satisfaction, 19 teams end up dissatisfied.

Over the scope of a 38-match season, Wenger’s philosophy has not produced a credible title challenge since at least 2008. Since the Invincibles of 2003-04, Arsenal have exceeded 80 points just twice. Historically, that is the bare minimum for contention.

This record suggests that Wenger’s approach isn’t enough to overcome Arsenal’s financial disadvantage relative to bigger spenders Chelsea, Manchester United, and Manchester City.

And yet, there’s a credible case that Wenger has exceeded the league performance we should expect given the club’s expenditures. To date, his teams have never finished lower than fourth place. In the past 10 years, no other club can make that claim.

What do you expect?


Expectations are, therefore, the issue. In many ways, Wenger is suffering from the standards he himself set, at least in league play. His three triumphant teams enjoyed structural and cultural advantages that more recent sides have not.

On the other hand, Wenger still has the philosophy and the players to achieve domestic cup greatness. That won’t arrive every year—the quest for beauty and brilliance on the day does risk irredeemable defeat. But isn’t it worth watching for the potential?

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Match Report: Arsenal 1, Watford 2

Arsenal produced a performance to match the dismal London night, losing to Watford 2-1.

After racing past Southampton in the FA Cup on Saturday, the Gunners could not get out of the blocks on Tuesday night. It cost them dearly.

Within a quarter of an hour, Watford had a two-goal lead. The first came via an Aaron Ramsey deflection of Younes Kaboul’s free kick. Although the effort came from well outside the area, Arsenal goalkeeper Petr Cech could not adjust in time.

Just three minutes later, Ramsey was in another unfortunate place. The Welshman failed to control a Gabriel throw-in. Watford’s Etienne Capoue nicked the ball, juked Francis Coquelin and Shkodran Mustafi, and forced a pointblank save from Cech. Troy Deeney was there to poke home the rebound, and not for the first time this season, Arsenal faced a deficit against a team much lower in the table.

The response was tepid at best.

Arsenal strung passes together but failed to mount any threat on the Watford goal. Watford’s 4-1-4-1 formation packed the midfield and prevented the Gunners from moving from their own half into attack.

That showed in Arsenal’s passing statistics at halftime: Mustafi and central defensive partner Laurent Koscielny were the team’s top two passers of the first 45 minutes. In addition, the top passing combination, which for Arsenal often involves a midfielder and playmaker Mesut Özil, was Mustafi to Koscielny.

As the half went on, Watford actually looked more likely to get a third than the Gunners did to climb back into the match. Indeed, Cech had to come up with a save from Daryl Janmaat’s shot to keep the gap at two goals.

Overall, the Hornets had nine shots, six on target, in the first half, while Arsenal had none on target and only three total.

Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger, serving the second of his four-match ban in the stands, seemed to acknowledge his team’s ineffectiveness. Contrary to his norm, Wenger introduced Theo Walcott for Olivier Giroud at halftime, having already used one substitution to replace the injured Ramsey.

Walcott’s quickness did make a difference. He had two looks at goal in his first six minutes of action and forced Watford goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes into a decent save.

In the 58th minute, Arsenal’s pressure finally had an impact. Alexis Sanchez got past Watford left back Miguel Britos and found Alex Iwobi at the far post. Iwobi caressed the ball back across goal and in to halve the deficit.

The Gunners went on to dominate possession and opportunities. Watford were content to break up play, so Wenger and his pitchside colleagues Steve Bould and Neil Banfield discarded all caution. Coquelin came off to be replaced by Lucas Perez.

That left a central midfield of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Iwobi, neither with a long record of patrolling that area.

Perez joined the forward line and contributed to Arsenal’s intensifying efforts to breach Watford’s defense. The Spaniard’s shot off the bar late in normal time was as close as the Gunners came to equalizing.

Their 17 shots in the second half--but just three that tested Gomes after Iwobi’s goal—did not produce another comeback.

Things to ponder


Here are a few observations from this disappointing showing:
  • The substitutes did make Arsenal more dynamic. Oxlade-Chamberlain, Walcott, and Lucas added quickness and intent to a heretofore plodding approach.
  • The pairing of Coquelin and Ramsey never got a grip on this encounter. They struggled in the packed midfield and offered little in transition to attack.
  • Indeed, questions will intensify about Arsenal’s midfield options. Ramsey’s exit after 20 minutes and the ongoing absences of Granit Xhaka and Mohammed Elneny leave the terrain to Coquelin and Oxlade-Chamberlain. The latter did not look entirely comfortable after a second-half tackle.
  • Wenger faces another difficult decision in the forward areas. Although Giroud enjoyed very little service, he was largely ineffective when he did come near the ball. Will he retain his starting slot at the expense of the speedier Walcott, Perez, and Danny Welbeck?
  • What started as a hopeful week now looks ominous. Chelsea could not hold its lead against Liverpool, meaning a Gunners’ win would have brought them within six points of the league leaders. With a Stamford Bridge date on Saturday, the gap could have been just three. But Arsenal now face a nine-point disadvantage, and it’s hard to see Chelsea giving up that much ground.