Match Preview, Stoke City v Arsenal: The Alexis Conundrum

Arsenal’s tests shift to England’s Northeast from its Northwest with Sunday’s visit to Stoke City. It’s a challenging fixture under any circumstances—Arsenal have just one win in seven Premier League matches there—and so soon after Wednesday’s grueling, frustrating draw at Liverpool, Stoke is a truly trying trip.

The good news is that the Gunners move on from disappointments much more quickly than their supporters do. We’ve seen recent evidence of this, when the 4-0 pasting at Southampton led not to a collapse as 2015 turned to 2016 but instead to three victories in short order.

And even if the legs remain weary, the prospect of Alexis Sanchez’s return is energizing. Although results have been solid in his absence (W7, D1, L1), Arsenal could certainly benefit from the Chilean’s infectious verve. A midwinter match at Stoke City seems like the perfect occasion.

In this occasion, as in all, perfection may elude us. Manager Arsène Wenger would be taking a major risk by immediately calling on Alexis. A re-aggravation of his hamstring injury, a problem related to compensating for his original injury, or consequences of Stoke’s infamously physical play could restrict last season’s star man from contributing substantially to Arsenal’s Premier League title challenge.

Wenger is well aware of the difficulty of this decision. He told his pre-match press conference:

Alexis, I would say has a 60:40 chance to be available and be back in the squad. He has two decisive days - Friday and Saturday. He is fit, he has worked very hard, and the decision we have to take is whether to take a gamble or not on his injury.

One of the manager’s clear considerations is the threat Alexis adds to Arsenal’s attack. Without him, opponents can focus on playmaker Mesut Özil, even man-marking the league’s top provider out of the game, as Southampton did. Alexis’s unpredictability, quickness, and determination will punish a team structured to stop anyone else.

Equally important is Alexis’s contribution to the Gunners’ efforts without the ball. He’s the key to Arsenal’s press in forward areas and forms an effective partnership with left back Nacho Monreal when opponents advance. Alexis can also help defend the middle of the pitch, where the midfielders Aaron Ramsey and Mathieu Flamini have shown they’d benefit from additional cover.

Despite the myriad ways in which Alexis strengthens this Arsenal team, the feeling here is that the manager will deploy him as a substitute. Wenger fancies a gamble, but perhaps not now with a prize asset he needs for as many of the remaining 16 league matches as possible.

Key Matchup

Joel Campbell against Erik Pieters. Arsenal’s once forsaken Costa Rican has risen to impressive form of late, creating danger with timely runs and clever passes from the right of Arsenal’s attack. He’ll need all his decisiveness and skill to outmaneuver Stoke’s well-drilled defensive unit and experienced and physical left back.

Where to Worry

Stoke have bombed Arsenal with crosses in the past, and the Gunners will need to limit that supply. But this season, the Potters have added speed and creativity to their weaponry, as their quick strikes against Manchester City showed. Keeping playmaker Bojan Krkic in check and marking the runs of Marko Arnautovic will be extremely important.

Match Verdict

It takes little perspicacity to see this match as a physical and mental gantlet. Even without the tricky Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke have enough in attack to hurt Arsenal. And the Potters still deploy a solid, physical, potentially frustrating defense. But this Arsenal team has a way of succeeding despite the obvious obstacles, and we think they’ll do so again.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. The front man took a beating against Liverpool, got patched up, and returned to score two exquisite goals. That increased his total to 18 in all competitions this season. If he can outwit (not difficult) and outmuscle (more difficult) head Orc Ryan Shawcross, Arsenal will succeed.

Stoke City. Ibrahim Affelay. Several Stoke players may grab the camera’s attention more than the Dutch midfielder does, but his deployment will dictate the match’s dynamic. If he works deeper in the midfield, he’ll be assigned to control Özil, meaning manager Mark Hughes is placing the priority on defending. If he takes a more advanced role, that will reveal Hughes’s attacking intent.

Arsenal's Midfield in Midwinter

The aesthetics of Arsenal’s 2015-16 Premier League campaign certainly turned on that moment in Norwich when midfielder Santi Cazorla unwittingly swung his leg into Norwich City’s Gary O’Neill. In that split second, Cazorla ruptured a knee ligament and joined midfield partner Francis Coquelin on the sidelines until early spring.

When the severity of Cazorla’s injury became known, there was no question manager Arsène Wenger would have to change personnel: The only two plausible midfielders available were Mathieu Flamini and Aaron Ramsey. The issue was whether Wenger would rethink the team’s formation and style to adjust for the absence of two essential players.

Evolution of the status quo

Flamini and Ramsey have now played six matches together—against Sunderland, Aston Villa, Manchester City, Southampton, and Newcastle in the league and against Olympiacos in the Champions League. Halfway through those fixtures, it appeared that the differences between this midfield of necessity and its preferred predecessor were subtle but not substantive. The formation remained a 4-2-3-1, for example, with the likely candidates simply replacing their injured colleagues.

Over the festive period, however, the differences became more pronounced. In particular, where Coquelin and Cazorla had emerged as a well-coordinated, if unlikely, pairing, Flamini and Ramsey grew less and less synchronized. Their divergence was made clear by the performance of Calum Chambers in Flamini’s stead against Bournemouth: In his first outing as Ramsey’s midfield partner, the neophyte looked more integrated and influential than Flamini did against Southampton or Newcastle.

Let’s be clear about two things, though: 1. The sample size remains small, particularly when it comes to Chambers’s involvement; and 2. The effects have not been the catastrophe many expected.

Since Coquelin’s injury against West Bromwich Albion, Arsenal have played nine matches, winning seven, drawing one, and losing one. That’s a successful run, accomplished in large part (six of the nine matches) without last year’s top scorer Alexis Sanchez.

Any criticism of “Flamsey” can’t rest on the results, then.

Instead, the critique seems to focus on the aesthetics. This isn’t meaningless, because we follow the Arsenal in part for the team’s artfulness and because those style points might reveal imperfections that, on other days, could cost the Gunners points in the league table.

In an effort to analyze the dynamics of the current midfield, the rest of this article examines the team’s orientation, its movement from defense to attack, and its defensive framework.

Orientation

Although Arsenal’s setup has remained a 4-2-3-1, there’s often much more space between Flamini and Ramsey than there had been between Coquelin and Cazorla. The average position graphics for each match on Arsenal.com make this point clear. Keep in mind these are composite renderings, so that at any given moment a player might be operating far from his indicated location.

For example, against Watford, the map shows Coquelin and Cazorla almost on top of each other. They were a little farther apart against Everton (map) and against Swansea (map), but in all three cases they took up central positions connected to each other and to their teammates.

The positions of their teammates are also interesting. As we’d expect from watching Wenger’s recent teams, fullbacks Nacho Monreal and Hector Bellerin offer the width, while the wide attacking players Alexis and Ramsey drift inward. And, as would befit standard operating positions, playmaker Mesut Özil works just behind the center forward, whether that’s Olivier Giroud or Theo Walcott.

For comparison, let’s look at the typical positions with Flamini and Ramsey in midfield. As Adrian Clarke pointed out on his ever-excellent Breakdown segment, acres of space separated Flamini and Ramsey against Newcastle (map). But in their other matches together, the distances, on average, are comparable to what we saw from Coquelin and Cazorla. Perhaps mental fatigue played a part in this development last Saturday, prompting Flamini to retreat slightly and Ramsey to advance, truer to their instincts.

With the Flamini-Ramsey midfield so far, Özil often finds himself in the most advanced position, even ahead of Giroud. This change might partly be a result of Giroud’s enhanced and more adept involvement in the buildup of play. Ramsey’s instincts forward might also be a factor; with Ramsey pushing up, Özil does not need to drop deeper to receive the ball.

Distribution

Indeed, we see different patterns of distribution and circulation with Flamini and Ramsey in midfield. Though the destination, as before, is Özil.

Cazorla served as the hub, receiving passes from both center backs, Per Metesacker and Laurent Koscielny, in comparable proportions and working the ball forward to Özil. Against Watford and Everton, Cazorla-to-Özil was Arsenal’s most frequent passing combination, while against Swansea it was tied for third. Meanwhile, a pattern developed on the left, where Monreal linked with Alexis frequently. (Stats from FourFourTwo's StatsZone)

A less diversified pattern has emerged since the Flamini-Ramsey pair debuted against Sunderland.

Ramsey has replaced Cazorla as the conduit to Özil, but he’s less likely to receive the ball from both center backs. It’s more often Koscielny who passes to Ramsey from defense; Mertesacker has been much less involved than he was with Cazorla.

This may have little to do with Cazorla’s exit and Ramsey’s arrival. Instead, the opposition may be putting pressure on Mertesacker so that he can’t jumpstart the offense, which he does so effectively. That’s opened lanes for Koscielny to exploit.

Cover

While the relationships between defenders and midfielders are important to the attack, they’re probably more important when Arsenal don’t have the ball. Midfielders support their rear guard to fend off opposition attacks by intercepting, tackling, blocking, or just outnumbering the offense.

In these duties, Coquelin excels. But Cazorla is no slouch defender. His collaboration with Monreal was particularly effective, as shown by their shutdown of Leicester City’s Riyad Mahrez in Arsenal’s 5-2 win in September.

Cazorla and Coquelin also adeptly patrolled the approaches to Arsenal’s penalty area, reducing the threats of through-balls and shots.

Ramsey and Flamini seem to provide less security. That’s not just a general impression; it’s apparent in the diagrams of defensive interventions and heatmaps. It’s also evident in the statistics, as this “By the Numbers” analysis by 7AMKickoff details.

There are several forces at work here. One is that Ramsey’s attacking instincts take him into the opponent’s third more frequently, leaving him with a longer retreat if Arsenal lose the ball. Another is that he and Flamini switch sides without the ball, so at some points Ramsey is supporting Monreal on the left and at others he’s working with Bellerin on the right. This might inhibit the development of a comfortable defensive relationship. It also has to be said that the 31-year-old Flamini has a narrower area of activity than Coquelin, 24.

The result is that opponents have found more areas to exploit, both centrally and on the flanks.

Implications

Thus far, these variations and imperfections haven’t prevented Arsenal from succeeding. The Gunners now top the table, whereas they sat fourth after drawing with Norwich. Despite what is essentially a 15-player senior squad, Arsenal secured nine points from the 12 available during the festive period, bettered only by Tottenham’s 10 from 12.

We should not forget those bare facts amidst the concerns, criticisms, and dissatisfactions about the aesthetics of the team’s play. At the same time, this analysis might help us understand the manager’s priorities, decisions, and instructions as other challenging matches approach.

Match Preview, Olympiacos v Arsenal: Not the End of the World

At this point, there’s no secret about Arsenal’s objective in this evening’s Champions League encounter at Olympiacos: The Gunners must win by two goals or by any score except 1-0 or 2-1 to advance to the competition’s knockout stage.

Falling short would mean Arsenal wouldn’t advance from the Champions League group stages for the first time in 16 years. It would also cast the club into the Europa League, with its potentially awkward Thursday matches in far-flung locales.

We’re at this point because the Gunners fell to Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia and Olympiacos at home in their first two matches, so any talk of failure should really focus on those two performances. Winning today by the required margin represents a much tougher task.

That’s particularly true because Arsenal will be far from full strength. We won’t rehash the team’s injury problems but will only note that the absence of Alexis, when goals against a compact defense are essential, could be decisive.

In those conditions, it won’t surprise us if the Gunners don’t succeed to the necessary degree. And that outcome won’t be a harbinger of the apocalypse.

Yes, winning is preferable, and this team needs to get back in the habit after its difficult November. Joining Europe’s best in the Champions League knockout stage also bolsters Arsenal’s reputation, its finances, and fan enthusiasm. We’re not arguing any of those points.

But, in and of itself, an exit from the Champions League will not be cataclysmic.

That’s mainly because Arsenal don’t have a realistic chance of winning the Champions League. Even if they receive a kindly draw in the first knockout match and buck the recent trend of losing to that initial opponent, the likelihood of taking out Bayern Munich or Barcelona or even Juventus or PSG over two legs is remote.

The Europa League, on the other hand, is a competition Arsenal might actually win.

Aside from that calculation, there’s a far worse outcome than failure in Athens—additional injuries. If any more first team midfielders or forwards are forced off this evening and then are ruled out for any of the busy festive schedule, Arsenal’s prospects in the Premier League will look grim. That would actually be disastrous, given the tight competition at the top of the table and the Gunners’ legitimate chance of overtaking current leaders Leicester City in the next few weeks.

How much will manager Arsène Wenger account for these implications when he sends his team out this evening? He’s not the type to shirk a challenge or to take a tactical loss; that’s why such matches as the 2004 FA Cup semifinal against Manchester United, when he dipped into his squad to rest several starters for their run at invincibility and history, sticks in the memory.

Wenger has also sounded the charge in his comments before the match, saying “There is one positive thing for us - we know exactly what we have to do. We know that we have to go for it from the start. So let's do that and hopefully we can get through.”

An indication of Wenger’s aggressiveness will be his deployment of Theo Walcott. The forward played 25 minutes against Sunderland on Saturday after more than a month on the sidelines with a calf injury. Does the manager give Walcott the start on the right side of Arsenal’s attack and again send out Olivier Giroud as the team’s center forward? That would be the most attack-minded team Arsenal could field at the moment.

It would also be risky in the short- and medium terms. Walcott won’t provide much defensive cover for right back Hector Bellerin, and fielding both Giroud and Walcott, the only two healthy options to lead the Arsenal line, courts injury danger.

Wenger is a risk taker, but he’s not crazy. He’ll acknowledge the significant downsides and, more than likely, keep one of Giroud or Walcott in reserve.

There’s not much choice to make elsewhere in the Arsenal setup, meaning Mathieu Flamini and Aaron Ramsey will continue their partnership in midfield. Theirs was a significant combination offensively on Saturday—Flamini-to-Ramsey was the team’s top passing connection—but their focus forward left gaps in the defense that Sunderland exploited on the counterattack.

Because Olympiacos must only avoid defeat, it can sit back, stymie Arsenal’s attack, and look to break. Arsenal’s midfielders will therefore need to be more attentive than they were on Saturday.

A more solid midfield will mark an important development for Arsenal’s league campaign as well. Whatever the outcome in Athens, home is where the focus should be.

Players to Watch:

Olympiacos. Esteban Cambiasso. The experienced midfielder will be the man to control the tempo and keep Arsenal’s playmaker Mesut Özil from finding space. If he can shut down the approaches to the Olympiacos penalty area and move the ball to attack quickly, Cambiasso will put the Greek side in a strong position to advance.

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. The Frenchman has been producing the goals, ten in Arsenal’s league and European matches so far this season, and can trouble Olympiacos on set pieces. If Wenger prefers Theo Walcott’s speed and movement against the home side’s defensive setup, Giroud can be a decisive substitute.

Match Preview, Norwich City v Arsenal: Have the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

When Arsenal midfielder Francis Coquelin's injured his knee ligaments in last week's loss to West Bromwich Albion, a large contingent of Arsenal supporters morphed into members of Delta Tau Chi fraternity.

Like the fictional residents of Animal House expecting expulsion from Faber College, these defeatist Gooners wrote off Arsenal's season. Coquelin's three-month absence, so runs the story, makes the season pointless. Arsenal can't compete for honors without the Frenchman's distinctive combination of physicality, keen sense of danger, positioning, concentration, and skill on the ball.

One player won't be able to replace Coquelin's traits. That's no doubt.

The questions are how do the team address his absence and how do we as supporters react. Do we resign ourselves to an unattractive fate or do we rally to John Blutarsky's inspiration, "Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"?

On the first question, manager Arsène Wenger has decided on a close facsimile of Coquelin, rather than an overhaul of the team's structure. For Wenger, maintaining the balance and flow of the team points to the selection of Mathieu Flamini to play beside Santi Cazorla in central midfield. That move disrupts the team the least.

The alternatives involved moving Aaron Ramsey from his more attacking position to one in deeper midfield. Wenger has said this would weaken Arsenal's stability and reduce Ramsey's effectiveness.

"Ramsey is more an offensive player," Wenger said. "I will use him sometimes there [centrally] when the game demands, but is he naturally with Cazorla a balanced pair? Defensively, certainly, it's an adventurous one!"

"He is not afraid to tackle, but he likes to go in the box, and he has good timing of runs, and he wants the ball, and he wants to go forward. If you take that out of him, and you say, 'Look. You have to sit now. Sit there and wait,' you kill his strengths."

The response to the second question--on the fans' reaction--will be predictable to anyone who's followed the club in the past decade. A vocal group will take the obvious, self-satisfied, and psychologically easy way of anticipating the worst and criticizing the manager before that outcome even happens.

That technique does provide comfort in the face of uncertainty and the knowledge that Arsenal's chances of winning the title--never overwhelming due to the correlation between financial outlay and final league position--have shrunk with the absence of one of the team's essential players.

But I'd ask why these people follow sport in general, and the Arsenal in particular, if they're looking for certainty. The basis of the drama and its attraction lie in the unpredictability.

Plus, just because the ultimate prize might well escape Arsenal's grasp, does that render all the proceedings moot?

Arsenal finished the 2014-15 league campaign in third place, far behind champions Chelsea. If you had anticipated that outcome at the beginning of the season and dismissed anything that happened in the meantime, you'd have turned your nose up at the captivating Alexis Sanchez, ignored the surprising emergence of Hector Bellerin and Coquelin himself, and missed out the joy of beating Manchester City, Liverpool, and Manchester United in the FA Cup.

To say nothing of the moments of sublime skill and brilliance that these elite and compelling athletes can deliver.

The next opportunity bear witness comes in Sunday's match at Norwich City. There, the Gunners start the "WC" (Without Coquelin) period in the Premier League against the 16th-placed Canaries. The hosts have lost four of their last five matches, but three of those have been by one-goal margins.

Norwich are in the middle of the pack on most statistical measures, though they do rank low on tackles and interceptions. This suggests that the Canaries don't aggressively go after the ball when they're not in possession, choosing instead to keep their shape.

Arsenal will be familiar with this approach: It's similar to the one West Brom employed in defeating the Gunners last weekend. This time out, Arsenal players must learn from their mistakes at the Hawthorns, especially the lapses in defensive concentration, and unsettle Norwich with swift movements.

Even without Coquelin, Arsenal have the players to succeed at those tasks. And to produce unforgettable moments, such as this. It's worth staying behind the team for that reason alone.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Santi Cazorla. The diminutive Spanish director looked majestic against Dinamo Zagreb on Tuesday night, wriggling through traffic as only he can and launching Arsenal's attacks. How he combines with Mathieu Flamini and picks apart the Norwich defense could well determine Arsenal's prospects Sunday and beyond.

Norwich City. John Ruddy. The Norwich keeper can keep matches close. But he's also capable of letting in six goals, as he did at Newcastle in mid-October.

Arsenal 1 Tottenham 1: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal fought back from a goal down to secure a 1-1 draw with Tottenham in the 161^st installment of the North London Derby.

Mesut Özil again provided the crucial pass, finding substitute Kieran Gibbs with a cross at the far post. Gibbs got enough of the ball to bundle it past Spurs keeper Hugo Lloris, negating Harry Kane’s first half strike for Spurs and Tottenham’s superiority during the middle section of the match.

Here are three things we learned from the contest.

Arsenal now have the players to deliver the points

Although Spurs controlled much of the play, Arsenal had enough quality to make the key moments count. Özil and goalkeeper Petr Cech, players with international pedigree, exerted their influence at the right times to prevent defeat.

The German playmaker delivered an assist in his sixth consecutive league game and his 10^th in 11 league appearances. The former is an unprecedented feat for a player on one Premier League team. His assist total could have been even higher, but for some slightly wayward finishing by striker Olivier Giroud. Overall, Özil created seven chances for teammates, according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app.

Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger hailed his silky midfielder’s progress and contribution after the match. “He was outstanding again,” said Wenger. “He has grown into a very great player as he has added commitment, leadership qualities, and responsibility, and I’m very pleased with his development.”

Another experienced hand earned widespread praise for keeping the Gunners in this match. Cech had to stop goal-bound shots by Christian Ericksen and Toby Alderweireld in the match’s third quarter; otherwise, Arsenal would have trailed by two goals with little prospect of recovery.

The save of Alderweireld’s shot was especially important. The Spurs’ defender got himself free to receive a corner kick and directed a strong header at goal. Cech’s positioning and reflexes were exactly what they needed to be for the moment; this intervention gave Arsenal the chance of equalizing.

As Wenger put it, “He has shown again how important he is and that maybe goalkeeper is maybe the most underrated position in football, because there is a moment he can keep you in it. If you go 2-0 down, it’s bye-bye.”

Thanks to Cech and Özil, Arsenal did not have to depart this match with nothing.

A depleted Arsenal can survive—and nearly thrive

The Arsenal injury list consisted of seven players, three starters among them, prior to the match. That was actually a slight improvement from earlier in the week, due to the returns of Laurent Koscielny and Mikel Arteta to the squad.

But the strain was still significant. Midfielder Santi Cazorla, whose partnerships with Özil and Francis Coquelin are so important to the team’s flow and defensive solidity, was suffering from dizziness and nausea and could hardly kick the ball straight. Wenger replaced him at halftime.

Offensive dynamo Alexis doesn’t seem right, either. He’s been playing with some combination of a groin strain and fatigue for a month, and his knack for goals has left him.

Right back Mathieu Debuchy, himself a replacement for the injured Hector Bellerin, took a knock in the second half and had to come off just after the Gibbs goal. As a result, the team spent the ultimate period of the match with Mathieu Flamini, inserted for Cazorla in midfield, at right back and Gibbs at left wing.

Yet this ragtag bunch looked the more likely winners in the end, even though Spurs had fielded its first-choice lineup playing to the top of its capabilities. That’s an indication of this team’s desire and potential.

Mathieu Debuchy should stop talking

Anyone who pays the slightest attention to Arsenal knows that Mathieu Debuchy is dissatisfied. The Frenchman suffered the misfortune of two long-term injuries last season, his first at the club, and encountered the emergence of the phenom Hector Bellerin. As a result, Debuchy, who wants a spot on the French national team for the European Championships on home soil next summer, found himself on the Arsenal bench.

When Debuchy has gotten the opportunities to regain his place, he hasn’t made the most of them. To a certain extent, that’s understandable: It’s hard for many professional athletes to perform at their best with sporadic playing time.

But rather than knuckling down and improving his performances, Debuchy has made strong public hints of his desire to leave Arsenal for playing time elsewhere. That’s not optimal public relations work from a player who’s been involved in the team’s worst outings this year. To use a term from hockey, Debuchy has a plus/minus of minus-9, capturing the losses to West Ham, Dinamo Zagreb, and Bayern Munich.

A better approach than voicing his discontents would be to capitalize on the slight progress he made on Sunday. Debuchy succeeded on nine of 10 tackles and displayed an improved awareness of his position relative to those of his teammates. He’ll need to show improvements like these when he gets further opportunities if he’s going to catch the eyes of any suitors or French manager Didier Deschamps.

Extra time

Francis Coquelin does not surrender. With his comrade Santi Cazorla playing at peak peaked, Coquelin was practically alone in Arsenal midfield as Tottenham pressed. The Frenchman held his own, making nine ball recoveries, tied for most in the match, and succeeding on six of eight tackles. He also committed no fouls. Without Coquelin’s clever, stalwart play, Spurs would likely have enjoyed a comprehensive and insurmountable advantage.

Champions League Match Preview, Bayern Munich v Arsenal: Use Their Anger Against Them

Arsenal confront an apparently enraged Bayern Munich in Germany on Matchday Four of the UEFA Champions League.

The Gunners’ 2-0 win over the previously omnipotent side two weeks ago seems to have stirred up Pep Guardiola’s charges. Star striker Robert Lewandowski, who had two goal-bound shots saved by Arsenal’s Petr Cech at the Emirates, said, “We desperately need the points. We have to show who is the better team.”

Bayern’s motivation isn’t lost on Arsenal. According to Per Mertesacker, who likely enjoys some back-channel communications with several compatriots in the Bavarian side, “They will be angry I guess. We are the first team who really challenged them, so they will be on the ball and try to show that they are back and better than us.” (Arsenal.com)

There’s no question of Bayern’s quality. They’re the Bundesliga’s juggernaut and one of the two best teams in Europe. Guardiola has skillfully mixed the experience of players like Philipp Lahm and Xabi Alonso with the guile of Douglas Costa and Arjen Robben and the firepower of Thomas Müller and Lewandowki.

Arsenal witnessed the threat in Matchday Three, but the Gunners did not cower. Bayern’s skill in and dominance of possession failed to carry the day. That’s largely because Arsenal stayed disciplined in defense, forced Bayern to pass around the perimeter, and intervened only at the most opportune moments.

It’s likely to be the same approach at the Allianz Arena, perhaps with a slight variation. If Bayern let too much emotion affect their style and decisions, they’ll be vulnerable to a martial arts-style response from Arsenal. Frustrate them for another period of time, and they might be more prone to mistakes. Particularly on set pieces.

Arsenal also can’t allow changes in personnel to affect the proceedings too much. A different Gunner will have to summon the energy and intelligence of Aaron Ramsey on the right side of midfield. That’s especially important given the wide threat posed by Costa and Robben, who missed the London leg due to injury.

Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger may rejigger the midfield, bringing in Mathieu Flamini as part of a 4-3-3 formation, but a more likely choice will be to replace Ramsey with Joel Campbell. The Costa Rican had an excellent Premier League debut at Swansea on Saturday, scoring the team’s third goal and displaying a keen will for defending. He’ll have to match that performance—if not improve it—against Bayern.

As if facing Bayern’s wide men weren’t enough of a challenge, Campbell will have to manage the threat with a different right back. Due to Hector Bellerin’s groin injury, Mathieu Debuchy will get the start. The French international has the pedigree to compete in such a headline game; the question is his form. His performances so far this season, including in last week’s Capital One Cup loss at Sheffield Wednesday, have been rusty and unimpressive, to put it charitably. For Arsenal to stay in this contest, Debuchy will have to rise to a very big occasion.

At stake is the Gunners’ control over their own Champions League fate. Escaping Munich with a draw would mean Arsenal could qualify for the knockout phase with wins in their final two matches, regardless of the other results. A win would put them in even better position, level on points with Bayern and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.

Losing tonight, though, would hand the initiative to Olympiacos. If the Greek team beats Dinamo Zagreb in Athens this evening, a draw against Bayern in two weeks would secure passage to the knockout stage and destroy Arsenal’s chances of progressing.

There’s still a lot of football to be played and therefore a variety of possible outcomes in the competition. But those outcomes will look a lot more promising if Arsenal avoid losing this evening.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal: Olivier Giroud. Arsenal’s center forward changed the complexion of the match at the Emirates, winning the physical battles with Bayern’s central defenders and scoring the decisive goal. The Frenchman, who has six goals in his last six matches for club and country, has also scored at the Allianz Arena before. Another opportunistic goal would strengthen the Gunners immeasurably.
Bayern Munich: Arjen Robben. You can’t take your eyes off that pointy, bald head anyway, so you might as well watch the Dutchman. Although everyone knows his signature move, he’s so quick and wily he’s still difficult to stop. Debuchy and/or Nacho Monreal, and importantly, the assistance they get from Arsenal’s midfielders and forwards, will be sorely tested.

Wilshere & Welbeck & the Way Back

The recent announcement of Arsenal forward Danny Welbeck’s knee surgery was a potent incendiary device. It combined two highly flammable elements—the club’s (lack of) transfer activity and its injury record—and sparked them with a bit of awkward and untimely public relations. The result was a social media firestorm.

It’s sadly not the first time an injury development has provoked criticism, in addition to amateurish medical diagnosis. The response usually focuses on physical factors, such as the nature of the injury, the scope of the treatment, or the typical recovery period, as if all Arsenal have to do is repair a broken machine.

Lost in all this is the mental condition of the individual affected, even though the psychological aspect is just as important as physical recovery. That’s the conclusion of compelling research on injury and rehabilitation among athletes.

Injury as routine

For years, supporters and media used Arsenal’s injury record as cudgel with which to attack manager Arsène Wenger. He shouldn't insist, some said, on a style of play that exposes players to so much physical risk; he should diversify his team away from so many small, slight players, others claimed; he should relax his stubborn training methods, still others argued; he should stop trying to control all aspects of the club, some proclaimed, especially medical interventions.

All these arguments ignore the research. Many studies have indicated that injuries are an unavoidable element of athletic performance. As Charles Brown notes in “Injuries: The Psychology of Recovery and Rehab,” “serious athletes come in two varieties: those who have been injured, and those who have not been injured yet” (The Sport Psych Handbook, 2013).

Everyone associated with an athletic endeavor, including managers, coaches, athletes themselves, and supporters, should therefore prepare for the reality of injury. After all, the vast majority of elite footballers sustain a performance-limiting injury at least once a season. (See Casper Devantier, “Psychological Predictors of Injury among Professional Soccer Players” in Sport Science Review.)

Fortunately, professional players can deal with this eventuality better than amateur players or fans can. Elite athletes have access to state-of-the-art facilities, breakthrough treatments, and attentive medical and rehab staffs. They’re also adept with the psychological techniques that enable peak performance, which, it so happens, are identical to those needed for effective injury recovery.

As I described a year ago in in “Mesut Özil Plays for Arsenal, and You Do Not,” the specific psychological tools elite athletes call upon are goal-setting, imagery, relaxation training, and positive self-talk. Also important is strong social support, which helps injured players stay motivated and confident. This points to another benefit of team camaraderie.

Warning signs

We can sense the psychological risks of injury in the comments of Arsenal captain Mikel Arteta, who spent more than six months sidelined with calf and ankle problems: “When players go outside for a training session, you feel wasted. They come back, they travel, they have different times to you and you don’t spend much time with them. Personally, I don’t feel productive.”

These types of feelings, while understandable at a human level, can be problematic for athletes. That’s because athletes can become more vulnerable to injury if they exhibit certain psychological traits. In Devantier’s study of Danish professional footballers, poor ability to cope with adversity and the existence of previous injuries both bore a strong correlation to the duration of injuries.

This makes sense. If a player can’t handle adversity or has suffered a prior injury, his anxiety could increase, affecting his ability to stay positive and calm and avoid long injury layoffs.

The real problem for Arsenal is that other research has identified an element of personality in the vulnerability to injury. Brown has observed that "the risk of injury increases if the athlete experiences competitive trait anxiety (routinely feels greater anxiety or tension in performance situations) or anger and aggression during competition."

Implications

Anger and aggression during competition. Remind you of anyone?

Hence a legitimate concern about midfielder Jack Wilshere. He's often the first into the fray, the scrappy English bulldog.

The question is, how does Wilshere separate this aggression from his playing style? He shouldn't heed advice to adjust his style of play out of fear of re-injury, which could actually create the conditions for another injury. What's important is that Wilshere remain in control of his physical and emotional conduct.

He should also rely on his teammates, the strength and conditioning coaches, the physios, the management team, and others. The support of them all is crucial; that's especially the case for Welbeck, who doesn't have the longstanding ties to the club Wilshere enjoys.

Perhaps Wenger knows how important togetherness and support are for his injured charges. It could explain why he's so complimentary of injured players in public and why he stayed behind Abou Diaby through his many long absences. That support was undoubtedly about Diaby, but it might have also been a message to the other members of the team that the club would stand by them if/when they were injured, too.

This approach to player injuries also explains the quick response to England manager Roy Hodgson's statement about the length of Welbeck's absence. Soon after Hodgson said that Welbeck would be out at least six months, Arsenal provided details of Welbeck's cartilage problem to Jeremy Wilson of the Telegraph, stressing that the club prognosis still pointed to a late December return.

Understood in light of the psychological research, Arsenal's purposeful public relations recovery was designed to encourage the player, keep him close psychologically to the first team, and reassure fans that the club is taking a professional, thoughtful, and holistic approach to the inevitable injuries.

Match Preview, Newcastle v. Arsenal: Find a New Tune upon Tyne

Arsenal’s visit to Newcastle United on Saturday will challenge the Gunners to get unblocked in front of goal.

The major similarity between this campaign’s first three matches and previous seasons’ starts has been the Gunners' ineffectiveness in front of goal. In general, Arsenal have been much more active offensively, taking 61 shots. (As 7AM Kickoff points out here, Arsenal have the highest shot total of any club in a top-five European league.)

A substantial majority of those shots (41) has come from within the opposition penalty area; that’s more dangerous shooting than Arsenal have produced during the first three matches of any of the past five seasons, according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app. The overall result has been 18 shots on goal in three matches, a high absolute number by the standards of the past five seasons' starts.

The problem is Arsenal’s low proportion of shots on frame. By managing just 30 percent of shots on goal in its first three matches, the team has, for the fifth time in the past six seasons, failed to put more than 35 percent of its shots on target. By contrast, over the full 2014-15 season, Arsenal put 37 of its shots on goal.

Newcastle is a tricky opponent under these circumstances. The Magpies have allowed 53 shots in three matches, with 18 of those (34 percent) on goal; they’ve blocked 19 shots (36 percent), including eight last weekend when they held Manchester United to a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford.

Given this dynamic, Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger may make some changes to his attacking lineup. He has the speedy options of Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to unsettle the Newcastle defense, which has been already troubled by the quickness of Swansea’s Jefferson Montero and Manchester United’s Memphis DePay.

Wenger could also add some zest from the midfield in recognition that Newcastle have not presented much of a scoring threat: Their 25 shots rank lowest in the Premier League. This might tempt Wenger to move Aaron Ramsey from his spot upfield into one of the central midfield positions.

The riskiness of that decision depends in large part on the health of Arsenal’s two first-choice center backs. At last report, Per Mertesacker remained ill, and Laurent Koscielny faced a fitness test on his back. Some accounts suggest that Koscielny trained with the first team on Friday and should replace Calum Chambers in Arsenal’s lineup at Newcastle.

Would that provide enough stability for Wenger to break up the central midfield pair of Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla?

Or, perhaps more to the point, does Mertesacker’s continued absence dictate the retention of Cazorla to aid Arsenal’s transition from defense to attack? Without Mertesacker’s clever passing, Arsenal probably need Cazorla’s trickery to move quickly upfield.

But Cazorla doesn’t offer the threat on goal that Ramsey does from the center of midfield. Cazorla’s two shots on goal in six attempts in the first three matches are in line with the team’s ineffective rate thus far.

Whatever players Wenger sends out early Saturday, bucking the trend and (re)discovering the knack in front of goal will be the charge. Another scoreless display will intensify the questions.

Match Preview, Arsenal v West Brom: Pre-Final Finale

Arsenal faces an odd scenario as it closes its Premier League campaign against West Bromwich Albion Sunday at Emirates Stadium.

It's comfortable but not totally secure in a third-place league finish, which would allow the Gunners to avoid a Champions League qualifier in August. Comfortable thanks to a three-point advantage over Manchester United; not totally secure because two bizarre results, say a 3-0 Arsenal loss and a 5-0 United win at Hull, would see United pip Arsenal for third on goal differential.

Then there's the matter of the FA Cup Final against Aston Villa six days later. Manager Arsène Wenger will likely decide Sunday's personnel to set the stage for a top performance from his first-choice team in the cup final. Given that many of those preferred players have looked less than energetic in Arsenal's last three matches, Wenger has to weigh giving them a rest against the risks of upsetting the team's chemistry and perpetuating the team's indifferent recent form.

After a run of eight consecutive wins between February and April, the Gunners have won only one of their last five matches. In the three of those matches, Arsenal failed to score at home against opposition organized to foil the Arsenal attack.

That's standard operating procedure for West Brom manager Tony Pulis, who has saved another team from relegation by instilling discipline in defense. It will therefore come as no surprise on Sunday when the Baggies allow the Gunners possession, force them into crowded central areas, hope for a moment of brilliance from leading man Saido Berahino, or try to catch the Gunners napping on a set play.

These principles have paid off in West Brom's recent matches. The Baggies are unbeaten in their last five, including wins over champions Chelsea on Monday and Manchester United at Old Trafford.

These results--and the manner West Brom have achieved them--will give Wenger, his staff, and his players plenty to contemplate. In particular, West Brom pose a significant aerial threat: 15 goals from headers is tied with West Ham for most in the league. Meanwhile, Arsenal have conceded the league's largest proportion of goals from headers (35 percent).

Given all these dynamics, Wenger's team selection will be interesting. He only introduced two new starters against Sunderland on Wednesday--left back Kieran Gibbs for Nacho Monreal and midfielder Jack Wilshere for Francis Coquelin--but those changes were not the ones most observers expected. Defender Laurent Koscielny, midfielder Santi Cazorla, and forwards Alexis Sanchez and Olivier Giroud all seemed likelier candidates for a game off.

Should we expect all four to get a break on Sunday? Wenger has suggested not. "Will I rest one or two players?" he asked in his pre-match press conference. "Certainly." But he didn't say he'll make wholesale changes to inject energy.

Now, Wenger probably wouldn't admit plans for major lineup turnover. The last time he made more than two outfield changes between league matches was between the early February loss at Tottenham and the home victory over Leicester three days later.

The selections against Leicester might, in fact, help us anticipate some changes for Sunday's match. Theo Walcott and Tomas Rosicky have a solid chance of repeating their starting appearances. Both came on as substitutes against Sunderland on Wednesday, when they introduced quickness and drive to the Arsenal attack. Expect them to do something similar from the outset against West Brom.

We might also see Gabriel replace one of the two center halves. The Brazilian's aggressiveness in the air and alertness to counterattacks would help offset West Brom's two major threats. The aerial threat might also encourage Wenger to prefer the more imposing Calum Chambers to Hector Bellerin at right back.

Also of interest is the choice in goal. In last season's final match against Norwich City, Lukasz Fabianski got the nod in preparation for his start in the FA Cup Final. Will similar thinking give Wojciech Szczesny the start on Sunday?

Whatever the selection, energy and tempo should be the priorities. Arsenal have the talent to end the campaign successfully; the questions are about imagination, vigor, and will. West Brom will present a test of all three.

Match Preview, Manchester United v Arsenal: Minimal Mystery

Arsenal's visit to Old Trafford won't carry the drama that seemed likely when the fixture list was released. Originally the penultimate match of the league campaign, the contest could have decided the two sides' Champions League fates or one of their title aspirations.

Neither remains in the balance. Arsenal have already amassed enough points to secure a top-four league finish, while United would have to give up a plus-14 advantage in goal differential to lose its own Champions League spot. Meanwhile, Chelsea have won the title.

The two teams won't hold any major surprises for each other, either. They met two months ago in the FA Cup quarterfinal, a 2-1 Arsenal victory that signaled further improvement against top competition away from home.

Still, no Arsenal-Manchester United contest is devoid of drama, and this one will be interesting on several levels.

For one thing, the implications for the final league table remain important. Arsenal need a win to maintain any hope of finishing second, which was a realistic--and stated--objective prior to Monday's loss to Swansea. A victory would also guarantee the Gunners third place and a pass on next season's Champions League qualifying round.

A United victory keeps open the possibility of a third-place finish for Louis Van Gaal's team, while a draw would give Van Gaal the points for a fourth-place finish and Arsenal almost all it needs for third. It'd be out of character for both Van Gaal and Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger to play for that result, so their approaches will be interesting in light of their objectives for the season.

Second, this is the final opportunity for Arsenal to consolidate its away performances against top opposition. The victory at Manchester City, the FA Cup win at Old Trafford, and to some degree the loss at Chelsea have shown that Arsenal are no longer naive travelers.

Although Arsenal played energetically in all three matches, the manager and the team did not take a uniform approach. They placed priority on solid defending in their own half against City and Chelsea, while they pressed United's midfielders and defenders assertively.

Lacking Michael Carrick's ball retention and passing efficiency due to his injury, is United vulnerable to a similar pressing approach on Sunday? Or will Wenger see West Bromich Albion's and Chelsea's recent rear-guard victories over United and his side's result at Manchester City as suggesting a more defensive stature? Will Wayne Rooney's exclusion bear on the Arsenal manager's thinking at all?

All those questions lead to a third interesting point. Based on Wenger's priorities for this match and his judgment of how to realize those, which players does he select? The team looked less than energetic against Swansea, particularly in the first half, and there may be a temptation to bring some variety to the lineup. After all, it was the fifth consecutive appearance for the identical starting eleven, an unprecedented run in Wenger's tenure.

Midfielders Jack Wilshere and Tomas Rosicky are the most likely candidates to join the starters. They'd each add verve to the Arsenal attack, though Wenger will weigh their energy going forward with defensive necessities. In particular, Arsenal's right-sided attacker will have to assist right back Hector Bellerin in marshaling United's Ashley Young, a primary agent of Van Gaal's directive to send crosses into the opposition's penalty area.

A healthy Danny Welbeck or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain might have expected to join the Arsenal XI because they'd bring speed in attack and defensive tenacity, but neither is ready to return to the scene of his outstanding FA Cup performance.

Even without Welbeck's desire to show his old employers again what they've forsaken, and even without the high stakes these encounters have carried in the past, Arsenal-Manchester United will always have its intrigues. It's each club's most prominent fixture as the season draws to a close, so the result could shape the storylines and tone for several months. Worth the attention.

Arsène Wenger's Management Acrobatics

The discomfort associated with Arsenal's 2-1, 120-minute win over Reading in the FA Cup semifinal has prompted questions about the four changes manager Arsène Wenger made to the starting lineup.

Goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny and center forward Danny Welbeck returned to the positions they had occupied in the previous round's win at Manchester United, while fullbacks Mathieu Debuchy and Kieran Gibbs came into the starting lineup for the first time since January 11 and March 4, respectively.

None performed at a level to suggest that he will be a regular starter for Arsenal's remaining matches. The one possible exception is Debuchy, who hinted at the defensive stability the manager might prefer in high-stakes games.

Despite these players' struggles and the team's travails overall, their selection represented a success. Here's why:

1. Arsenal won the match and maintained its impeccable, eight-week run of results
2. Several potentially important players logged time in a high-pressure match
3. The manager built a body of evidence for future personnel decisions

These are meaningful objectives to achieve in the context of a season, even if myopic fans and pundits prefer to focus on the tight final score against a lower-ranked Reading side.

The perspective of time

Wenger expresses an intriguing sense of time. His public statements send a message to his players to limit their focus to the next game. It's almost a reflex for him. "I believe now let's focus on our next game," he said during his FA Cup semifinal press conference. (Available on Arsenal Player)

In statements that are less automatic, Wenger lets on that he's not focused only on the next match. He's looking at the scope of a full season.

"Let's finish the season well," he remarked over the weekend. "We have six games, a big game next weekend, and I believe we have the spirit, which is encouraged by the results."

Here, Wenger is balancing the need to restrict his players' attention to the immediate task with an acknowledgement that the immediate task is important but not definitive. The full measure of this team will be its cumulative results over a season.

To meet expectations over that assessment period, Wenger has to prepare the entire 25-man squad to compete from August to May in a 38-match league season and three cup competitions. And throughout he has to put each member of the squad in position to adjust to events.

Providing a taste of the action

The two types of events that most directly concern players are injuries and dips in form. To help them prepare for those possibilities affecting themselves and teammates, the manager must keep more than his top 11 players sharp.

One obvious reason is that any player could quickly become essential.

For example, starting center half Per Mertesacker's ankle injury on Saturday renders the readiness of Gabriel vital. Integrating the Brazilian relatively quickly after his January arrival, with starts against Middlesbrough, Everton, and Newcastle, looks wise now. He was not paralyzed by the high-pressure environment of an FA Cup semifinal, and he'll be ready if needed against Chelsea. That wouldn't have been the case had the manager stuck with the strong defensive partnership of Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny throughout 2015.

Wenger also has to weigh the risks and the adaptability of specific players. That was the scenario with Debuchy, as, unbeknownst to supporters, recent starting right back Hector Bellerin had been suffering from injuries of his own.

"It was a bit risky," Wenger admitted. "Bellerin has played recently with some ankle problems, and Debuchy was back, so I thought it was a good moment to do it."

"[H]e is a French international and must be capable of playing in a semifinal against Reading."

Just as important as these assessments is the head man's management of players' egos. He has to insure the commitment of a group of young, highly paid professionals whose careers have depended on single-mindedness and self-regard. They may not grasp their important role in the season's arc from the substitute's bench.

To maintain solidarity in an era of professional and personal distraction, Wenger affords them action. "You wait, you wait, at some stage you have to play a game," he explained.

Building a case for personnel decisions

Seizing these opportunities to show one's qualities and contributions is the charge of the professional athlete. It's one that midfielder Francis Coquelin answered emphatically in January.

Wenger has admitted that he didn't foresee Coquelin's success; it would be hard to find anyone who did. He developed a faith from Coquelin's work in training and his play on loan. But that faith had to be supported by evidence of consistent match performances.

Building this body of evidence is another reason for reintroducing the four players to the starting lineup against Reading. Their performances lend support to the manager's case when he decides about their involvement.

"Ideally, you want everybody to be happy," Wenger revealed in discussing his changes against Reading. "It is part of the job, and the most important thing is to get results, for the fans and everybody involved with the club."

With that as the priority, Wenger now has more points of information should players or their representatives approach him with appeals for more prominent roles. He could, I think, rebuff arguments from Saturday's four additions that they should take those positions from the starters of eight consecutive Premier League matches.

Yet I doubt Wenger will make such a definitive statement. He knows he'll probably need each of the players -- perhaps in a starting role against Chelsea (Debuchy), in a different starting position later (Welbeck), in important substitute appearances (Gibbs and Welbeck), or in the FA Cup final (Szczesny).

As a result, he'll continue the acrobatic act of preparing and motivating these elite athletes. That might involve decisions and communications, such as those surrounding the Reading match, that seem puzzling to supporters focused on single performances. They're more understandable, though, if we consider the relevant time horizon, the abrupt changes in fortunes of professional athletes, and the complex requirements of managing a group of them.

The Good, the Bad, the Amazingly Coiffed Olivier Giroud

Arsenal center forward Olivier Giroud received widespread condemnation for his performance in the club's 3-1 home Champions League defeat to Monaco. The criticism wasn't entirely unwarranted: Giroud had misfired on six shots, failed to complete eight of his 18 passes, and went off defeated midway through the second half.

The interesting development wasn't Giroud's failure in that match; it was his response. When manager Arsène Wenger trusted Giroud with a starting spot four days after the Monaco loss, he scored Arsenal's crucial opening goal against Everton. He did the same three days after that against Queen's Park Rangers.

"He's strong mentally," Wenger said of his compatriot after Wednesday's match. "He can take some criticism and respond. He's shown that. I feel it was a bit harsh for him because he missed some chances. That can happen."

This fortitude, which few people outside professional athletic circles can comprehend, may make Giroud the ideal Arsenal striker from a psychological perspective.

How to stand tall in a storm

Center forwards at Arsenal are lightning rods. Fans, pundits, and other observers see the shortcomings of the leader of the team's attacking line and use that criticism to bash Wenger. There are three main reasons for this:

1. Many watch football for the exploits of goal scorers
2. The model of the Arsenal striker was established and perfected by Thierry Henry
3. The "value-oriented" approach to player acquisition has been most obvious in pursuit of strikers

Until the summer of 2014, when the dearth of world-class central defenders drove the price of David Luiz to £50 million, acquiring an elite forward was the transaction most subject to the irrational forces of the player transfer market. (I wrote about this last summer in "Who Is This Mythical Arsenal Striker?") It just wasn't possible to get the services of a proven goalscorer for the prices Arsenal have been able or willing to pay. Arsenal supporters bemoaned this reality and its implications for their club's standing among the elites.

These laments, of course, conveniently overlook the status of Henry when Arsenal bought him from Juventus. Although the club paid a record £11 million to acquire him in 1999, Henry had only scored three goals in one season at Juventus and a total of 28 in five previous seasons with Monaco.

Yet he emerged as the top striker of the Premier League era and the ideal in that position among Arsenal supporters--the thin, fast, cool, smart, and lethal predator. That became the aesthetic expectation.

Giroud, much like the Henry of 1999, does not meet this expectation. However, his mental makeup appears to equip him perfectly for the current football culture. He is confident but not so confident that he doesn't recognize the need to improve, particularly in the face of direct competition from newcomer Danny Welbeck. He acknowledges criticism but does not let it paralyze him. And he risks failure to achieve success. (Without engaging in too much armchair psychoanalysis here, I must note that Giroud's handsomeness might be an asset in all these respects.)

Improvements in skill and instinct

Many have analyzed Giroud's awareness, strength, and touch and have deemed him vital to Arsenal's style of play. Without those attributes, the skillful attacking play of Santi Cazorla, Mesut Özil, Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey, and Tomas Rosicky and the speed of Alexis Sanchez, Theo Walcott, Welbeck, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain lack a foundation. His three-month absence due to injury in the second Premier League match of the season coincided with the team's most tentative offensive displays.

Since his return in late November, Giroud has shown newly keen instincts in front of goal, finding or creating space in crowded areas and scoring timely goals. His savvy is a major reason that Arsenal's performance on set pieces has improved so dramatically: Through 28 matches, Arsenal have scored 10 goals from free kicks and corners this season, compared with eight all of last season. (From Squawka.com's Team Rankings)

We saw this contribution on his goal against Everton. As his teammate Gabriel ran toward the near post, Giroud pulled back into the space Gabriel and his marker Gareth Barry had vacated, just slipping away from Everton defender John Stones. Giroud then caught Özil's cross on the volley with his weaker right foot and directed it into the far corner of the net.

Against Middlesbrough in the FA Cup, Giroud spotted empty space at the near post, a frequent hunting ground for him, darted toward it and volleyed Alexis's quickly taken corner into the net with his left foot. He was also expertly positioned to prod home a rebound against Crystal Palace and a blocked shot against QPR.

These four recent Giroud goals indicate a varied approach, an important quality that prevents defenders from predicting the location or timing of the danger he poses.

Numbers among the best

As a result, Giroud has emerged as one of the top strikers in the Premier League. He's not the absolute best, as Henry was, but he is competitive with other widely lauded forwards. The stats below from OptaSports via whoscored.com provide evidence of Giroud's growing stature:

He's fractionally behind Manchester City's Sergio Aguero and Chelsea's Diego Costa in goals per 90 minutes and level with Tottenham's Harry Kane, while scoring more from fewer shots than all of them except Costa.

These aren't the numbers of the worthless lug many Arsenal supporters have portrayed Giroud to be. Instead, Giroud appears to be making remarkable progress. His goal production per 90 minutes was 0.4 in his first Arsenal season and improved only slightly to 0.5 in 2013-14. Those came from 4.1 and 3.3 shots per 90 minutes, respectively.

His current 0.8 goals per 90 minutes ratio would, over the course of a full season, amount to something in the neighborhood of 30 goals. Although we should be wary of projecting a full season's performance from one particularly productive period, it's possible that Giroud is becoming the perfect combination of mentality and skill to lead the Arsenal line.