Saturday, March 18, 2017

Match Preview, West Brom v Arsenal: Bag the Big Picture

Arsenal need total focus on 90 minutes of football against West Bromwich Albion early Saturday.

Since the Gunners’ Champions League exit to Bayern Munich, manager Arsène Wenger’s future has dominated the discourse. One example: The manager’s press conference before the FA Cup quarterfinal against Lincoln City did not feature one question about the match itself. The only topic was Wenger’s career plan.

This did a huge disservice to Lincoln City, of course. It also perpetuated the boring, binary debate among Arsenal supporters.

In all likelihood, Arsenal’s players aren’t bothered with this contention. They have 12 league matches and an FA Cup semifinal date to concentrate on. Ignoring the role each plays in the overall assessment of the season could be critical to success.

The first of these fixtures certainly requires its own level of attention. West Brom manager Tony Pulis knows how to play the foil to Arsenal, configuring his teams to nullify skill on the ball as a matter of course.

The Baggies succeeded in the reverse fixture, holding Arsenal scoreless until a late header by Oliver Giroud carried the day for the Gunners.

How do Arsenal cope tactically with that approach, especially given confidence is not at the brim these days?

In particular, will Wenger pursue the three-man midfield he has introduced in recent weeks? The trio of Granit Xhaka, Aaron Ramsey, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain provided an interesting and effective departure from the longtime 4-2-3-1 system.

Against Lincoln City, Oxlade-Chamberlain’s injury prompted the reintroduction of Mesut Özil to the side. The German, returning from illness and suffering poor form since the turn of the year, seems the key figure of the 4-2-3-1. It’s geared to allowing him playmaking freedom with minimal defensive responsibilities.

But his return did not prompt the team to revert to 4-2-3-1. Instead, he played deeper in the midfield trio and asserted himself physically against the tiring Imps. Özil has also enjoyed great success with the German national team as part of an attacking trio.

The advantage of either Özil position for Arsenal is a more cohesive midfield. Offensively, the flow improves because more routes forward open; defensively, Arsenal are less vulnerable to counterattacks.

Both dynamics will be important against West Brom. The Baggies will try to congest the interior approaches to their final third and to force Arsenal wide. They’ll be confident their large defenders can cope with any crosses from there. Lincoln executed a similar approach with some success in the first half last weekend.

When the Gunners switch the play quickly, though, defenders have to scramble. Ramsey and Alexis should be ideally placed to exploit the resulting spaces, and Xhaka and Özil possess the skill and vision to find them.

Vision and implementation on that plane—rather than at the corporate level or on the level of the manager’s future—should be all anyone cares about.


Key Matchup


Mesut Özil against Claudio Yacob. Arsenal will have the bulk of possession in this match. The outcome will hinge on what the Gunners accomplish with that possession. Özil has seemed pedestrian in 2017 and needs to spark into form for the last 12 league matches. He’ll have to avoid the attentions of West Brom’s pesky Yacob to start that resurgence at the Hawthorns.

Where to Worry


No mystery here—set pieces. That’s West Brom’s main offensive threat. The Baggies have scored 17 of their 36 goals (47 percent) in dead-ball scenarios. Their 12 goals from corners are far and away the highest of any Premier League team. (Stats from Opta via Squawka.com)

Match Verdict


West Brom will make Arsenal labor, as always. Pulis’s defenses will be difficult to break down, but as Arsenal increase the tempo, West Brom will tire. A lapse in concentration will provide the opening, and Arsenal will rely on a clinical finish to carry the day.

Players to Watch


Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. This seems like a perfect environment for Welbeck. He has the speed to run away from West Brom’s hulking defenders and the strength to take them on if necessary.

West Brom. Ben Foster. The only reason West Brom didn’t get swamped at the Emirates was Foster’s performance in goal. Another stellar outing from him would deepen Arsenal’s frustrations.

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Match Preview, Arsenal v Bayern Munich: I Know You Rider

The sun will shine on my back door someday,
March wind will blow all my troubles away.


The American blues song “I Know You Rider” says a lot about Arsenal Football Club in advance of Tuesday’s Champions League match with Bayern Munich.

The number, performed by such groups as the Grateful Dead and Hot Tuna, deftly moves from despair to optimism.

In its opening verse, the storyteller predicts that the listener “gonna miss me when I’m gone.” It’s hard not to attribute that sentiment to the embattled Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger. As has been analyzed on this site and elsewhere, the Frenchman is such an integral part of the club’s culture and structure that his absence will force a transformation.

The song’s verses unfold differently depending on the artist and the performance. By the time they close, they express a hopeful sentiment. That the cares, blues, troubles will, come some March, disappear.

We struggle to see that outcome for Arsenal now amidst the gloom of four defeats in six matches and the uncertainty clouding the futures of Wenger and his two stars Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Özil.

But the hope has to be there somewhere. Whether it lies in the club’s longer trajectory or in expectation of one match, the sane among us all possess some kind of hope. Otherwise, we would stop caring; we’d stop paying attention; we’d find other pastimes.

Masochism or even quest for validation—among those who are looking to prove they’re smarter and/or more committed than others—are sustainable for only so long.

And so to the matter of Bayern. In the binary operation of knockout competition, this is a meaningless encounter. The German giants destroyed the Gunners, 5-1, three weeks ago, and barring some supernatural intervention, Arsenal are not going to better that result and advance to the Champions League quarterfinal.

The way things look—Bayern having put eight goals past Hamburg at the weekend, Arsenal continuing to look rudderless in a 3-1 loss at Liverpool—a result similar to the first leg’s doesn’t seem far-fetched.

Yet we’ll pay attention.

Perhaps hints of something different will emerge. A revised tactical approach. Opportunities for different players. Focus. Professional pride.

Any of those changes to the dynamic will be interesting. They might also set the team up for better days ahead.

Like a trip to Wembley for an FA Cup semifinal. Saturday’s quarterfinal visit of non-league Lincoln City provides a legitimate chance at that outcome.

Or Premier League matches to come with Tottenham, Manchester City, and Manchester United. Make the most of all those occasions, and the Gunners tell a different, less tragic, story of the 2016-17 season.

Because all those conclusions remain possible, we press on.

Key Matchup


Arsenal’s players against their recent performances. The direction is negative; few would dispute that. Arresting that slide against one of the three or four most powerful teams in the world is a daunting task. But these are highly paid professionals who got where they are through talent and persistent motivation. Summoning those qualities against this opposition could be effective therapy.

Where to Worry


Could another absolute hiding make things worse? I don’t know.

Match Verdict


Even if manager Carlo Ancelotti changes his lineup, Bayern will dominate the ball. And win the tie. The major unknown is whether Arsenal will discover any answers to their recent troubles.

Players to Watch


Arsenal. Aaron Ramsey. Can the Welshman get back into form quickly and help the Arsenal midfield function better? It’s a lot to ask, especially against this opposition. But the rest of Arsenal’s season might depend on it.

Bayern Munich. Franck Ribéry. Because if you have to watch one Bayern player, you might as well content yourself in the knowledge that Arsenal don’t employ someone this unattractive.