AFC Bournemouth 3, Arsenal 3: Three Things We Learned

For the first time in the Premier League, Arsenal rallied from three goals behind to grab a point from an eventful 3-3 draw at Bournemouth.

Again, Olivier Giroud provided the decisive touch. His deft header in stoppage time capped a furious final 20 minutes. Though it might not be enough to sustain Arsenal’s title challenge, the result avoided what looked to be an embarrassing defeat.

Here are three things we learned from the match.

Alexis will not surrender

The Gunners needed a hero. Up stepped their Chilean leader.

With his team trailing 3-0 midway through the second half, Alexis kept driving his teammates forward. He dribbled at the Bournemouth defense. Attempted more through balls and crosses. Harried Bournemouth players when they had the ball.

Alexis’s goal to get Arsenal off the mark was all desire. He ran past Bournemouth right back Simon Francis just as Giroud was flicking on Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain’s cross. He got to the ball at point blank range and buried his header past keeper Artur Boruc.

The stats bear out the dynamo’s influence: No player created more chances for teammates (three) or attempted (38) or completed (25) more passes in the final third.

In the absence of playmaker Mesut Özil, Alexis ran the show. And he dragged his teammates along with him.

This group deals with adversity in a novel way

This match could easily have ended as one of Arsenal’s most humiliating defeats in recent years. Just two days removed from their previous, victorious, outing, the Gunners looked vulnerable from the start.

Although the end of the festive period often produces such a strained dynamic, manager Arsène Wenger's starting lineup seemed to point to a more solid setup. Francis Coquelin returned to the midfield and should have created a better shield with Granit Xhaka. Aaron Ramsey, usually more defensively aware than other forward options, got only his third league start.

However, a defensive lapse led to Bournemouth’s first goal. Ramsey failed to cover Bournemouth left back Charlie Daniels. The late, ineffective intervention of Hector Bellerin gave Daniels a sight of goal he didn’t forsake.

Surrendering the opening goal—bad, but not insurmountable. The early deficit didn't revive the Gunners, whose scuffling play continued.

Then, referee Michael Oliver delivered two decisions that went against Arsenal. The first was a penalty against Xhaka, who tangled with Bournemouth winger Ryan Fraser just inside the area. Callum Wilson shot straight down the middle for a 2-0 Bournemouth advantage.

Later, Oliver ignored a more egregious foul that Fraser himself committed, which left the Bournemouth man one-on-one with Arsenal keeper Petr Cech. 3-0.

Add an injury to Coquelin and the exit of captain Laurent Koscielny, and you’d be forgiven for fearing the worst.

But Arsenal did not cave. Alexis’s goal energized the team, while substitute Lucas Perez’s cracking volleyed finish across Boruc provided a realistic hope of avoiding defeat. A red card to Francis for an overly aggressive tackle on Ramsey enhanced the opportunity.

This Arsenal team delivered a message, of sorts, when they took this chance when many of their predecessors would have wilted.

Petr Cech rescued his performance--and this point

Rarely can you credit a goalkeeper who sees his net bulge three times in a match. In this case, though, Arsenal’s Petr Cech deserves some recognition.

The veteran faced six shots on target and saved three. None was more critical than his stop of Harry Arter’s drive in stoppage time, after Arsenal had pulled level.

Goalkeeping experts can decide whether Cech’s inability to get close to any penalties this season—he’s faced six—should be a concern. He will also be disappointed that his string of two shutouts came to an end and perhaps upset that he didn't do better with Bournemouth's two goals from open play.

Still, at the end of an intense nine-day period, with pride on the line, Cech stayed focused and stood tall.

Extra time

On the heels of an outstanding performance against Crystal Palace, Arsenal’s fullbacks would probably prefer to forget this game.

Bellerin, normally such a weapon, struggled to get involved in the offense. He completed just 34 passes (76 percent of those he attempted) and had just 64 touches, second lowest among Arsenal’s outfield players in action the full 90 minutes.

On the defensive side, Bellerin had problems as well. He failed on both his attempted tackles, he picked up a first-half yellow card, and all of Bournemouth’s goals emanated from his side of the pitch.

After the match, Wenger said his right back was playing with a minor injury.

Nacho Monreal didn’t have a banner game on the left, either. The Spaniard, 30 years old next month, looked off the pace so soon after his previous outing. He might not be able to bear such regular exertions; the club’s inquiries about left back targets suggest as much.

Match Preview, Ludogorets v Arsenal: Not So Fast

Arsenal travel to Bulgaria to face Ludogorets Razgrad on Tuesday, with the opportunity of setting the pace in Champions League Group A.

The Gunners are level on points with Paris Saint-Germain and have a superior goal difference, so the target of winning the group is within reach with three matches to go.

The team shouldn’t grab for that objective prematurely, though. Any dip in performance or focus could be costly here.

Ludogorets posed dangers two weeks ago when they visited the Emirates. Yes, Arsenal ran out 6-0 winners, but there were moments in the first half when Arsenal goalkeeper David Ospina had to intervene and prevent the Bulgarian side from seizing the initiative.

Indeed, Ludogorets did not follow the pattern most visitors use in North London: Rather than defending deep, they opened the game and sought to capitalize on Arsenal’s aggressiveness. They were particularly adept in transition, moving quickly from the wings to playmaker Marcelinho.

This success should make Arsenal wary. All the more so because first choice right back Hector Bellerin did not make the trip to Sofia. In his place, we’ll see either Carl Jenkinson, with only one Arsenal start since May 2014, or regular center half Shkodran Mustafi.

The center of Arsenal’s midfield will also look different. Santi Cazorla remains injured, and Francis Coquelin may get a rest before Sunday’s North London Derby.

The challenge for manager Arsène Wenger is choosing among the qualities and strengths of four deserving central midfield choices. Granit Xhaka, out of action since his red card against Swansea, Coquelin, Mohammed Elneny, and Aaron Ramsey all have strong starting cases.

Our best guess is that Xhaka partners Elneny. It would be only the second start for the pair. Xhaka-neny’s previous performance came in Arsenal’s 4-0 EFL Cup win at Nottingham Forest, so in theory the two can combine effectively.

Whomever the manager picks, Arsenal’s midfielders need to attend to the home side’s threat. Ludogorets led PSG at home and drew with Basel in the Champions League. In domestic competition, they’ve scored 15 goals in their last four games, so they don’t lack firepower.

Where the hosts may struggle is in defense. Arsenal possess the speed of thought, movement, and passing to punish most teams. It’s unlikely that Ludogorets have the organization and defensive quality to keep the likes of Mesut Özil and Alexis Sanchez quiet.

Key Matchup

Arsenal’s fullbacks against Ludogorets’s wide attacking players. Ludogorets will look for opportunities to isolate Gibbs and Jenkinson/Mustafi. Wanderson, Misidjan, and Cafú all flashed threats in the first meeting. If Gibbs keeps up his fine form and his counterpart on the right holds firm, Arsenal can limit Ludogorets’s effectiveness going forward.

Where to Worry

Too many changes in Arsenal’s starting XI, some enforced by injury and others by choice, could create uncertainty the hosts could exploit. Of particular concern would be the defensive support Arsenal’s right back receives from the midfielder and wide attacker. Jenkinson or Mustafi will need help to slot in effectively.

Match Verdict

A wide-open affair. Ludogorets will likely maintain its European record of scoring in all its home matches, but Arsenal will field enough offensive talent to overcome the hosts.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Alexis. Arsenal’s dynamo is humming at the moment. Two goals against Sunderland on Saturday punctuated his all-action performance. His is the kind of talent and energy that Ludogorets will struggle to contain.

Ludogorets. Marcelinho. The Brazilian pulled the strings for the Bulgarian side two weeks ago, completing 89 of 99 passes, both game highs. He also created three chances for teammates.

How Can Arsenal Get the Most from Three Summer Stars

Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger faces a fascinating set of decisions as he prepares for the 2016-17 season.

Although much attention at this time of year goes to player acquisitions and departures, the plans for existing players are just as interesting. In particular, how can Wenger and his staff get the most from Mesut Özil, Aaron Ramsey, and Alexis Sanchez?

The complications of success

The three were the standout performers on the international stage this summer. Alexis earned the player of the tournament honor for Copa America champions Chile; Ramsey took Wales to the Euro semifinals and himself onto the all-tournament team; Özil pulled the strings for the German Euro semifinalists yet inexplicably missed out on the accolades.

They all excelled in free roles in their teams’ attacks, moving into and out of dangerous positions behind the lead strike force. They can’t do the same for Arsenal. There’s just not enough room, time on the ball, or exemption from defending. (See Tim Stillman’s recent column, “Arsène’s Agenda,” for a look at the Özil-Ramsey relationship.)

A further challenge is that none of them will be ready to start the season on August 14. Each will be taking a break before returning to Arsenal, with the second league match—against champions Leicester City—looking like their earliest reasonable action.

As a result, pre-season and early match dynamics may not reflect Wenger’s intentions for his three best attacking players. Ultimately, here are some ways the manager might shift the personnel or system to maximize their contributions.

Playing in the band

It’s of course difficult to separate individuals from the structure that guides their actions. As an exercise in analysis, I'd identify three main developments in the team that will influence the impact of Özil, Ramsey, and Alexis.

First, the arrival of Granit Xhaka has the potential to reorient Arsenal’s approach. His distinctive mix of skills and aggression can enhance partnerships in the midfield and change the flow of the attack. (See my article “Which Midfield Mix Will Work for Arsenal.”)

One particular beneficiary of Xhaka’s arrival should be Ramsey. His new Swiss teammate has the ability both to patrol the base of midfield and to keep the ball circulating. This means that Ramsey could take a freer role than he could with, say, Francis Coquelin; he could concern himself less with initiating the transition and protecting the defense.

That is, if Ramsey takes up a midfield position beside Xhaka.

The second important development in the playing contingent, the return of Santi Cazorla, will influence Ramsey’s role. Cazorla can serve as another transition instigator and has allowed Özil to thrive in the past. The German’s outstanding start to the 2015-16 season, when he set a record-setting assist pace, was possible because Cazorla orchestrated the play from deeper and gave defenders another playmaker to worry about.

But instructing Cazorla to take up this role again would probably displace Ramsey from a position in the center, where he excelled for Wales. A knotty problem.

The third personnel-related factor affecting the star trio’s contribution is the center forward’s style. Olivier Giroud is a particular kind of center forward; he’s an effective target man, deft passer, and clever operator near goal. These qualities have made him a great foil for Ramsey, who attacks with vigor from midfield: Watch Ramsey’s epic FA Cup winner from 2014 for an example.

What Giroud isn’t is a speedy killer, the type of mobile, clinical striker that Alexis might thrive with. Although analyses suggesting that Alexis and Giroud can’t jibe are poorly founded, we have often seen Alexis at his best playing with quick center forwards like Theo Walcott and Danny Welbeck.

Welbeck offers a flexibility that would serve Alexis, Özil, and Ramsey all well. He darts into channels and opens space that all three can exploit and is an indefatigable defensive presence who helps recover the ball in dangerous areas. Stylistically, Welbeck is an excellent fit; he’s just out for a long period with injury and historically not the most clinical finisher.

Possible formations

Given the players at Wenger’s disposal right now, which formation makes Arsenal most effective? Offensively at least, the setup would emphasize the attacking talents of Alexis, Özil, and Ramsey. The three options examined below might accomplish that objective. Others, such as the 4-4-2 or 3-5-2, don’t seem to appeal to the manager.

4-2-3-1

The fallback structure in recent seasons has been the 4-2-3-1. Although it balances midfield presence, playmaking, and defensive cover, that setup may not bring about the maximum offensive production from the three.

It certainly works to Özil’s strengths because it gives the playmaker the most license. And there’s a case for an attacking midfield of Alexis-Özil-Ramsey, which played a large part in Arsenal’s top performances of 2015.

If the attacking midfield becomes even more fluid, the 4-2-3-1 could still serve Arsenal well. The speed of movement and thought among the three confuses defenders and creates openings. The catch is that turnovers leave Arsenal’s fullbacks exposed because their forward support has moved away from their flanks.

4-3-3

The second option is a 4-3-3. In this, one can see Xhaka with Ramsey and Cazorla in a midfield three. Ramsey could thrive with such skilled and clever midfield partners, using their varied transition play to get himself quickly into dangerous forward positions.

The 4-3-3 has promise for Özil as well. It allows him to drift into promising spaces, where he can play a killer pass, which has been his general operating mode for Germany. Whether this arrangement works for Özil in Premier League play, given the defensive implications, is a question.

The fundamental problem with such a formation, though, has to do with the strengths of Arsenal’s available center forward options. Giroud would not be as effective if he had to make quick moves into the gaps between opposition defenders or if he had to lead the Arsenal press. These seem like core striker responsibilities in a 4-3-3, more aligned with Welbeck’s strengths.

4-1-4-1

Third, we might see a resurrection of the 4-1-4-1. It’s a slight variation on the 4-2-3-1 that Wenger tried early in the 2014-15 season.

This formation seemed to suit Alexis because his energy and quickness allowed him to cover offensive and defensive space on the flank of the advanced midfield four. He could also get forward quickly and support the center forward.

Xhaka’s arrival makes this setup workable. He could hold the base of the midfield and distribute long passes to the wings or shorter ones to Ramsey and Özil in two attacking midfield roles.

The gap in the 4-1-4-1, given Arsenal’s current roster, is the other wide attacking midfield position. At the moment, the candidates would be Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Alex Iwobi, and Joel Campbell. Does any of those players have the combination of skills to elevate the team’s play consistently?

More experienced and insightful figures than myself or other bloggers will be assessing this question and others as the season approaches. Perhaps Wenger and his staff will reveal some of what they think about the intriguing possibilities when pre-season friendlies start at the end of next week.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Burnley: In Search of a Spark

Arsenal host Burnley in the FA Cup 4^th Round on Saturday, when the Gunners will look for their first victory since their 3^rd-Round triumph over Sunderland on January 9.

These three winless winter weeks have left Arsenal if not desperate for, then certainly in need of, a strong performance and a positive result. A home cup tie against a Championship side presents an opportunity to spark 2016 to life.

In addition to the overall urgency and the theoretically ripe opponent, the return of several important players should provide the impetus for improvement on Saturday.

In his 30 minutes of action against Chelsea last Sunday, the dynamic Alexis Sanchez showed flashes of the energy, skill, and imagination that pose opponents such problems. He’ll be available from the start on Saturday, offering a threat that Burnley defenders aren’t accustomed to.

Saturday’s match will also signal the easing of Arsenal’s midfield crisis with the reintroduction of Francis Coquelin, out since injuring his knee at West Bromwich Albion in late November, and Tomas Rosicky, who hasn’t appeared in a first-team Arsenal match since a nine-minute cameo against Sunderland in May 2015.

The midfield will be further bolstered by the appearance of the newest Arsenal player, Mohammed Elneny. Observers, supporters, the coaching staff, and his teammates are all no doubt interested to see what the January acquisition can bring to the squad. Indications are the Egyptian will have an opportunity to show that from the start.

Thanks to this improving personnel situation, manager Arsène Wenger has more luxury to choose his lineup against Burnley, and supporters have reason to be optimistic. There are several reasons to be cautious, however.

First, the Gunners have a challenging league date with Southampton on Tuesday. Wenger will want to position his team for optimum performance that evening, for three reasons:

1. To stay in close contention for the league lead
2. To cleanse the psyche of the 4-0 drubbing at Southampton’s hands in December
3. To rebound from recent lackluster results

As is so often the case with cup competitions, the manager must balance what’s needed for success on the day with his longer-term objectives and the freshness of the playing squad.

In that context, how much leeway does the manager enjoy to field players who are new to each other or who have little recent experience together? Although there are now several legitimate candidates for starting roles, a midfield completely remade from recent matches in front of a central defensive pairing that is, by necessity, not first choice seems risky.

Not least because Burnley are no pushovers. The Clarets are one of the form teams of the Championship, having gone five games unbeaten in the league to reach third position. They’re coming into Saturday’s fixture on the heels of a 4-1 dismantling of fellow contenders Derby County. And they’re not that far removed, either in personnel or time, from the team that gave Arsenal a real test at Turf Moor last April.

Statistically, Burnley aren’t remarkable. They have taken relatively few shots per game (11.4, ranking 21^st of 24 Championship teams) and allow relatively high numbers of shots per game (14.4, ranking 3^rd). They stand last in tackles per game and don’t commit that many fouls, relatively speaking.

Where the Clarets have made a mark is on set pieces. They’ve scored 13 goals from corners, crossed free kicks, and direct free kicks and four goals from penalties. That suggests that Burnley will try to copy the trend among less accomplished Premier League sides, described by 7amKickoff here, and draw fouls in areas whence they can launch dangerous free kicks.

If Burnley succeed in this effort, they’ll test the organization of Arsenal’s rejiggered defense. But if Arsenal can limit those opportunities and keep the game flowing, the Gunners should pass this test, move to the last 16 of the competition, and establish a foundation for the important matches to come.

Key Matchup

The Arsenal midfield against Joey Barton. In all likelihood, Burnley manager Sean Dyche will arrange his team in a 4-4-2 formation with strikers Sam Vokes and Andre Gray combining for the offensive threat. That will leave Burnley a man light in midfield, where veteran instigator Joey Barton will be charged with minimizing the impact of Arsenal’s superior numbers and skill. It’ll be a rude inaugural for Elneny, and the ability of the Egyptian to thrive in that situation will tell us a lot about his potential.

Where to Worry

Burnley are experts at set pieces, and if Barton and his teammates manage to draw Arsenal into a chippy, stop-start encounter, a strike from a dead ball is a possibility.

Match Verdict

It’d be unwise to assume an easy Arsenal win here. Burnley have quality and application that could trouble the Gunners, even at home. But I think Arsenal will be both energetic and persistent, and the Gunners’ superior talent will carry the day.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Alexis. The Chilean seemed raring to go when he entered the Chelsea match. Although he was rusty, he pushed the team forward and hustled back when defensive cover was necessary. Burnley won’t have seen his like in the Championship and will find him hard to handle.

Burnley. Andre Gray. The 24-year-old Welsh forward has notched 15 goals in 23 appearances for Burnley, including five in his last five matches. Three of his 15 goals have come from the penalty spot. He’s the Clarets’ main attacking threat and will work with teammate Sam Vokes to divide the attentions of Arsenal’s two center halves.

Match Preview, Stoke City v Arsenal: The Alexis Conundrum

Arsenal’s tests shift to England’s Northeast from its Northwest with Sunday’s visit to Stoke City. It’s a challenging fixture under any circumstances—Arsenal have just one win in seven Premier League matches there—and so soon after Wednesday’s grueling, frustrating draw at Liverpool, Stoke is a truly trying trip.

The good news is that the Gunners move on from disappointments much more quickly than their supporters do. We’ve seen recent evidence of this, when the 4-0 pasting at Southampton led not to a collapse as 2015 turned to 2016 but instead to three victories in short order.

And even if the legs remain weary, the prospect of Alexis Sanchez’s return is energizing. Although results have been solid in his absence (W7, D1, L1), Arsenal could certainly benefit from the Chilean’s infectious verve. A midwinter match at Stoke City seems like the perfect occasion.

In this occasion, as in all, perfection may elude us. Manager Arsène Wenger would be taking a major risk by immediately calling on Alexis. A re-aggravation of his hamstring injury, a problem related to compensating for his original injury, or consequences of Stoke’s infamously physical play could restrict last season’s star man from contributing substantially to Arsenal’s Premier League title challenge.

Wenger is well aware of the difficulty of this decision. He told his pre-match press conference:

Alexis, I would say has a 60:40 chance to be available and be back in the squad. He has two decisive days - Friday and Saturday. He is fit, he has worked very hard, and the decision we have to take is whether to take a gamble or not on his injury.

One of the manager’s clear considerations is the threat Alexis adds to Arsenal’s attack. Without him, opponents can focus on playmaker Mesut Özil, even man-marking the league’s top provider out of the game, as Southampton did. Alexis’s unpredictability, quickness, and determination will punish a team structured to stop anyone else.

Equally important is Alexis’s contribution to the Gunners’ efforts without the ball. He’s the key to Arsenal’s press in forward areas and forms an effective partnership with left back Nacho Monreal when opponents advance. Alexis can also help defend the middle of the pitch, where the midfielders Aaron Ramsey and Mathieu Flamini have shown they’d benefit from additional cover.

Despite the myriad ways in which Alexis strengthens this Arsenal team, the feeling here is that the manager will deploy him as a substitute. Wenger fancies a gamble, but perhaps not now with a prize asset he needs for as many of the remaining 16 league matches as possible.

Key Matchup

Joel Campbell against Erik Pieters. Arsenal’s once forsaken Costa Rican has risen to impressive form of late, creating danger with timely runs and clever passes from the right of Arsenal’s attack. He’ll need all his decisiveness and skill to outmaneuver Stoke’s well-drilled defensive unit and experienced and physical left back.

Where to Worry

Stoke have bombed Arsenal with crosses in the past, and the Gunners will need to limit that supply. But this season, the Potters have added speed and creativity to their weaponry, as their quick strikes against Manchester City showed. Keeping playmaker Bojan Krkic in check and marking the runs of Marko Arnautovic will be extremely important.

Match Verdict

It takes little perspicacity to see this match as a physical and mental gantlet. Even without the tricky Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke have enough in attack to hurt Arsenal. And the Potters still deploy a solid, physical, potentially frustrating defense. But this Arsenal team has a way of succeeding despite the obvious obstacles, and we think they’ll do so again.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. The front man took a beating against Liverpool, got patched up, and returned to score two exquisite goals. That increased his total to 18 in all competitions this season. If he can outwit (not difficult) and outmuscle (more difficult) head Orc Ryan Shawcross, Arsenal will succeed.

Stoke City. Ibrahim Affelay. Several Stoke players may grab the camera’s attention more than the Dutch midfielder does, but his deployment will dictate the match’s dynamic. If he works deeper in the midfield, he’ll be assigned to control Özil, meaning manager Mark Hughes is placing the priority on defending. If he takes a more advanced role, that will reveal Hughes’s attacking intent.

Arsenal 3 Dinamo Zagreb 0: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal worked out some of its recent discomfort with a professional 3-0 victory over Dinamo Zagreb in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday.

The Gunners’ star men--Mesut Özil and Alexis Sanchez--accounted for all three goals in Arsenal's first win in four matches. Alexis clinched the result in the 69^th minute, having moved to center forward when starter Olivier Giroud was replaced just a minute earlier.

The win clarifies Arsenal’s task as it seeks to qualify for the competition’s knockout stages for the 16^th consecutive year. A victory by two goals in Athens over Olympiacos, 4-0 losers at Bayern Munich Tuesday, will put the Gunners into the Round of 16 yet again.
Here are three other things we learned from the match.

Özil and Alexis drove and delivered

Arsenal’s two top signings looked as if they don’t want to leave the Champions League. Not only did the pair produce the goods in front of goal, but they provided the energy, tenacity, and talent to overwhelm Zagreb at the crucial moments.

Özil’s opening goal in the 29^th minute was an excellent example: After some skillful interplay in the Arsenal half among Santi Cazorla, Özil, and Giroud, Cazorla found Mathieu Flamini, who got the ball quickly to the streaking Alexis on Zagreb’s left flank. Giroud and Özil kept sprinting toward goal, Giroud’s run to the near post creating space for the German playmaker to run into. Alexis lifted a pass to Özil, who connected headlong and sent the ball past Zagreb keeper Eduardo.

A goal of speed, skill, and desire.

Those qualities seem to have returned to Alexis’s game in his last two matches. Alexis made the highlights with two goals, breaking a month-long drought, and the assist for Özil. He also harassed Zagreb’s defenders and midfielders, making 3/3 tackles and seven ball recoveries, tied for second on the team, according to FourFourTwo StatsZone.

Özil matched Alexis’s drive and scoring intent, especially in the first half. As manager Arsène Wenger said after the match, “I think Mesut Özil had an outstanding first half, he has got the taste for scoring now. I have never seen him in the box so many times as in the last five or six games.”

Arsenal’s ostensibly retiring playmaker attempted four shots from inside the penalty area and put three on target. The influence diagram on FourFourTwo.com shows how keen Özil was to get forward--he took, generally speaking, the most advanced position in Arsenal's attack.

On the day, the talents and dedication of these two world-class players made up for injury absences and proved too much for Zagreb.

Arsenal made Zagreb pay through transitions, not possession

Whether by design or by Zagreb’s more assertive approach, Arsenal allowed their opponents more possession than we expected. The usual pattern is for visitors to the Emirates to pack their defenses and force Arsenal to find a way through.

That didn’t materialize on Tuesday. Zagreb exerted pressure early and chased the game late. As a result, Arsenal finished the match with only a slight advantage in possession, 53 to 47 percent. Instead, the Gunners created dangerous situations by turning defense to attack with speed.

The first two goals played out this general scenario in a four-minute stretch of the first half. Özil’s goal came from a counterattack over three quarters of the pitch, while Alexis’s first resulted from a Nacho Monreal interception near the Zagreb penalty area and his centering pass.

In each situation, the Gunners moved and thought more quickly than their opponents and, as a result, found space right in front of Zagreb’s goal. A repeat of that idea and execution in the Premier League would be welcome indeed.

The Cazini midfield worked

There were ample discussions before the match about Arsenal's midfield structure and personnel due to the injury-induced absence of Francis Coquelin. His partnership with Cazorla, the thinking went, couldn't be replicated by another midfielder, so Wenger had to consider a revamp, perhaps even moving from the 4-2-3-1 formation to a 4-3-3.

As it happened, Flamini moved alongside Cazorla but didn't try to imitate Coquelin. He made only one tackle and three interceptions; by contrast, Coquelin was averaging 3.2 tackles and 2.7 interceptions per game in the Premier League before his injury. (Stats from Opta via whoscored.com)

Perhaps even more interesting, Flamini didn't combine with Cazorla nearly as often as Coquelin typically done. Passes from Flamini to Cazorla did not number among the Arsenal's top 11 combinations during the match, while Cazorla connected with his French teammate 12 times, the fifth most frequent Arsenal combination.

Instead of replacing Coquelin's defensive stance, Flamini made a greater creative impact. He picked precisely the right pass to Alexis to send the attacker on his way to assist Özil's opening goal, and his flick along the touch line to Joel Campbell started the move that ended with Alexis's clincher.

Against different opposition, Flamini-as-attacking-hub might not be the most desirable formula, and he might need to deliver more discipline in front of the defense. Here, though, such license paid off.

Extra time

In just 22 minutes of action, Aaron Ramsey showed how valuable he is to the team's workings. Although he wasn't completely fit, his movement made Arsenal's attack much more dynamic. There was space for others and a renewed zip to the passing with Ramsey on the pitch; he also helped solidify the midfield when Zagreb had the ball. Not a moment too soon, Ramsey's return.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Dinamo Zagreb: 72-Hour Revenge Therapy

Tuesday’s Champions League clash with Dinamo Zagreb might be the ideal occasion for Arsenal. With an overwhelming display, the Gunners can ease the disappointment from their rotten performance and luck in Croatia and their unfortunate Premier League result on Saturday against West Bromwich Albion.

The payback will be all the sweeter against a known offender of performance-enhancing drug rules. Dinamo midfielder Arijan Ademi failed even UEFA’s superficial drug test after the home leg in September. UEFA has suspended Ademi for four years, a verdict that’s been appealed.

That development makes the timing perfect for Arsenal. Ademi’s absence will affect the muscularity--ahem--of the Dinamo midfield, and it will emphasize the points Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger has made recently about doping in football.

Wenger has embarked on a solo campaign on the issue, beginning with his fascinating interview with L’Equipe Sport & Style’s Erik Bielderman (translated for Arseblog here). Wenger told Beilderman:

In 30 years as a manager, I’ve never had my players injected to make them better. I never gave them any product that would help enhance their performance. I’m proud of that. I’ve played against many teams that weren’t in that frame of mind.

The European governing body doesn’t seem to have appreciated the manager’s forthrightness. According to Wenger, UEFA has stepped up its oversight all right—of Arsenal.

“What I do know is that I came out on that [issue], and as a result we had a doping control from UEFA on Friday!” Wenger revealed at his pre-match press conference on Monday. “We had 10 people on Friday to control us!”

And he returned UEFA’s fire, saying the rule permitting victories to stand despite positive doping results “means you basically accept doping.”

There’s no better way for Arsenal’s players to support their manager than by laying waste to Dinamo Zagreb.

Certainly, the gap in talent makes Arsenal capable of doing that. Mesut Özil and Alexis Sanchez, in particular, provide an offensive threat that the Croatian side rarely sees.

The complicating factors facing Arsenal aren’t novel. The Gunners will have to cope with an extensive injury list, which since Saturday includes midfield linchpin Francis Coquelin, and they’ll be facing an obdurate defense.

Dinamo Zagreb’s plan at home was to frustrate the Arsenal attack and take advantage of any mental lapses. It worked the charm, as lazy tracking by Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, inattentive defending of a corner, and Olivier Giroud’s red card doomed Arsenal to a 2-1 defeat. Manager Zoran Mamic will rely on an intensified version of this approach in London.

Mamic will be encouraged by Arsenal’s inability to break through West Brom’s deeply packed defense on Saturday. Arsenal had 73 percent possession but managed just three shots on target (of 11 shots total), according to FourFourTwo's StatsZone. And one of those, Giroud’s headed goal, came from a free kick.

The Gunners will need to move the ball more quickly and more imaginatively, ideally early in Tuesday’s match, to give Dinamo Zagreb what they have coming and to put recent flat performances behind them.

Regaining energy in this way may even be a more important objective than retaining hope of qualifying for the Champions League knockout stage. Arsenal need a victory against Dinamo and an Olympiacos loss at Bayern Munich to keep that possibility alive. If those two outcomes happen, Arsenal would need a two-goal win over Olympiacos in Athens in two weeks to reach the competition’s final 16.

In other words, in so many respects, this match calls for the maximum from Arsenal.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Alexis. Improbably, the Chilean devil rediscovered his verve against West Brom. If he can summon similar energy on Tuesday, Dinamo Zagreb won’t be able to handle him.
Dinamo Zagreb. Domajoc Antolic. The club captain returns from injury and must replace Ademi’s physical presence in midfield if Dinamo’s plan to frustrate Arsenal is to work.

Leicester City 2 Arsenal 5: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal produced a swashbuckling 5-2 win at Leicester City on Saturday.

The performance doubled the Gunners' goal output for the season and ended Leicester's unbeaten opening run. Combined with the midweek win over Tottenham in the Capital One Cup, Saturday's victory represented a strong response to disappointing losses in the two preceding contests at Dinamo Zagreb and Chelsea.

Here are three things we learned from the match.

Don't get into a shootout with Arsenal

In truth, we could fill a report with accounts and analysis of the various ways Arsenal scored--incisive counterattack, deft crosses, individual skill off a set play, precise timing of a fullback run. That's testament to how rampant Arsenal's offense was in this match.

Allowed space by Leicester's high defensive line, Arsenal's Theo Walcott and Alexis Sanchez swooped into dangerous areas again and again. Leicester's midfield failed to put pressure on Santi Cazorla and Mesut Özil, giving those two pass masters many opportunities to pick out the runs of their teammates farther forward.

The numbers (from Opta via the StatsZone app) reveal the consequences.

Arsenal had 26 shots, an amazing 22 inside the Leicester penalty area, and only missed the target with one (not including the 14 blocks Leicester made).

Cazorla completed 71 of 77 passes (92 percent), created five opportunities for teammates, and assisted on Walcott's opening goal. Özil connected on 54 of 59 passes (also 92 percent), also created five scoring chances for teammates, and delivered a delicious cross for Alexis's second goal.

Leicester tried but could not match the Gunners' effectiveness in attack. The Foxes took 16 shots of their own, 11 in the Arsenal penalty area, and opened the scoring in the 13th minute when Jamie Vardy latched on to a long clearance, outran Per Mertesacker, and finished past Petr Cech into the far corner.

This set the tone for a wide-open match, which played to Arsenal's strengths.

Alexis loves Leicester

The King Power Stadium in Leicester will hold fond memories for Alexis when he ends his time in the Premier League.

Arsenal's star man got his first league goal there last season and ended his early season drought there Saturday with goals of opportunism and top quality.

His first was a welcome, straightforward finish, thanks to Walcott's clever run to the near post, which took two Leicester defenders with him. When Hector Bellerin's cross was redirected by that three-player melee, Alexis found himself with the ball in front of an open goal. The easiest of putaways got him off the mark for the season.

For his second, he received another pass from the marauding Bellerin, passed to Özil across the top of the Leicester penalty area, timed his run to escape all the defenders, then redirected Özil's cross past the onrushing Leicester keeper Kasper Schmeichel.

He capped the hat trick with a screaming low shot from outside the penalty area, an opening he generated himself with a deft flick of Nacho Monreal's throw-in past Leicester's Ngolo Kanté.

These were a worthy payoff for Alexis's combination of creativity, desire, and skill that took him to such heights in his inaugural Premier League campaign.

Nacho Monreal may be the best left back in the Premier League

It's a variation of the rags-to-riches story. Monreal joins Arsenal in January 2013, primarily due to the injury of starting left back Kieran Gibbs. The Spaniard does not thrive under the circumstances but gradually learns the requirements and tricks of a Premier League defender.

Watch the recent interview on the club's website for Monreal's thoughtful reflection on his career.

He's now made 94 appearances for Arsenal; his latest was an absolutely top performance against the league's in-form attacking player, Leicester's Riyad Mahrez.

Mahrez came into the match with five goals and three assists in six games this season. Monreal shut him out on Saturday, so much so that Mahrez switched sides to try to find better opportunities on Arsenal's right.

Overall, Monreal made seven ball recoveries, succeeded on seven of the eight clearances he attempted, and won seven of eight aerial duels. He also assisted on Olivier Giroud's goal in second half injury time, taking advantage of the flagging Leicester defense to reach the by-line and cut the ball back for the Arsenal striker.

That closed Monreal's outstanding display and solidified his place as the top left back in the league at the moment. Name a better one. 
 

Extra time

This was Walcott's top showing as a center forward for Arsenal.

The conditions favored him: Leicester's lumbering center backs and assertive defensive line gave him the space to use his speed. He did that, connected with Cazorla's defense-splitting pass, and delivered a subtle left-footed finish for Arsenal's first goal.

On other occasions, Walcott created space for teammates with intelligent runs, such as the one that freed Alexis for his opening goal. And he held his own in the physical battles.

Chelsea 2 Arsenal 0: Three Things We Learned

It's tough to reflect on Arsenal's 2-0 defeat at Chelsea and draw wisdom.

The match turned from an interesting, cagey affair to an utter farce just before halftime, when the spotlight-seeking referee Mike Dean took the opportunity to expel Arsenal center half Gabriel.

Still, let's consider these three conclusions that emerged from the encounter.

Arsenal don't have the margin of safety to buffer it against awful officiating

This is the second straight match in which Arsenal players have seen red cards. After Olivier Giroud's expulsion in the Champions League on Wednesday, both Gabriel and Santi Cazorla were sent off against Chelsea.

Like most teams, Arsenal have struggled with the subsequent disadvantage.

That's the hard--and perhaps not very revelatory--truth.

There are some interesting aspects of this reality, though. Often a team's fans will rail at unjust officiating and say that it cost their team the game, but in many cases they're just looking for an outside scapegoat for their team's inadequate performance.

In this case, Arsenal fans are right to identify Saturday's referee as decisive. And just about any reasonably impartial observer would have to agree: The unwillingness or inability to punish Diego Costa properly, the failure to defuse the Gabriel-Diego Costa confrontation, and several other key borderline calls tilted this match in Chelsea's favor.

This experience, coming just after an encounter with another inept, touchy, or easily influenced match official in Zagreb, should serve as a lesson to Arsenal's players and staff: They're likely to face injustice; their task is to minimize its effects.

Succeeding in that situation will require extraordinary intelligence, mental fortitude, and balance. It'll also take leadership, which both Francis Coquelin (a second too late) and Nacho Monreal (rebuffed by the referee) tried to exercise on Saturday. I wonder if Per Mertesaker's or Mikel Arteta's presence on the pitch would have made a difference, recognizing, of course, that Mertesacker's presence might have meant Gabriel was on the bench rather than in the heat of the action.

Now we've seen the consequences when Arsenal don't exercise the "soft skills," as opposed to the physical skills, at this highest level of performance, and they're unpleasant.

Arsenal can execute the necessary tactical plan

Before the incident that changed the match, Arsenal showed its tactical flexibility, adapting the approach to fit the occasion.

Early on, the movement of Arsenal's forwards caused Chelsea some discomfort. When that activity didn't create the important early goal, the focus shifted to keeping Chelsea at bay.

This succeeded. Chelsea had only four shots on target in the first half, and just one of those, Pedro's smothered connection with a lofted pass to the far post, was inside Arsenal's penalty area.

Overall, even with a man and then two-man disadvantage, Arsenal conceded just two of what StatsZone calls "big chances" in front of goal, the Pedro shot saved by Petr Cech in the first half and Kurt Zouma's headed goal in the 53rd minute.

The approach was similar to the one Arsenal executed in winning at Manchester City last January. Saturday had the makings of another tactical masterclass but for the referee's intervention.

Alexis needs to lift off

When Arsenal could not identify, recruit, and attract a world-beating center forward this offseason, just about everyone acknowledged that the team would need a diverse supply of goals. Midfielders such as Aaron Ramsey and Mesut Özil would have to contribute more, Theo Walcott and Danny Welbeck would need to stay healthy and be more productive, and Alexis, last season's top scorer, would have to add to his goal tally.

That mix certainly hasn't come together yet this season, and it's missing the key ingredient from Alexis.

It's not for lack of trying. Alexis ran himself to the limit on Saturday, coming off after 75 minutes. But when presented with Arsenal's one big chance of the match, he wobbled, missing the target from pointblank range not long after Zouma's opening goal.

That was Arsenal's chance to change the dynamic of the match -- despite the numerical disadvantage -- and the star man did not take it.

Whether he returned too quickly from leading Chile to the Copa America, whether his unrelenting schedule of the past two years has taken a toll, whether he just needs one shot to go in to get himself going -- Alexis needs a boost if Arsenal are to achieve their objectives.

Extra time

Arsenal showed its mettle by standing up to Chelsea's bullies. The response might not have been sufficiently cunning, but we can't question the passion. Wednesday's Capital One Cup tie against Tottenham presents an excellent opportunity to channel that spirit.

Match Preview, Newcastle v. Arsenal: Find a New Tune upon Tyne

Arsenal’s visit to Newcastle United on Saturday will challenge the Gunners to get unblocked in front of goal.

The major similarity between this campaign’s first three matches and previous seasons’ starts has been the Gunners' ineffectiveness in front of goal. In general, Arsenal have been much more active offensively, taking 61 shots. (As 7AM Kickoff points out here, Arsenal have the highest shot total of any club in a top-five European league.)

A substantial majority of those shots (41) has come from within the opposition penalty area; that’s more dangerous shooting than Arsenal have produced during the first three matches of any of the past five seasons, according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app. The overall result has been 18 shots on goal in three matches, a high absolute number by the standards of the past five seasons' starts.

The problem is Arsenal’s low proportion of shots on frame. By managing just 30 percent of shots on goal in its first three matches, the team has, for the fifth time in the past six seasons, failed to put more than 35 percent of its shots on target. By contrast, over the full 2014-15 season, Arsenal put 37 of its shots on goal.

Newcastle is a tricky opponent under these circumstances. The Magpies have allowed 53 shots in three matches, with 18 of those (34 percent) on goal; they’ve blocked 19 shots (36 percent), including eight last weekend when they held Manchester United to a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford.

Given this dynamic, Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger may make some changes to his attacking lineup. He has the speedy options of Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to unsettle the Newcastle defense, which has been already troubled by the quickness of Swansea’s Jefferson Montero and Manchester United’s Memphis DePay.

Wenger could also add some zest from the midfield in recognition that Newcastle have not presented much of a scoring threat: Their 25 shots rank lowest in the Premier League. This might tempt Wenger to move Aaron Ramsey from his spot upfield into one of the central midfield positions.

The riskiness of that decision depends in large part on the health of Arsenal’s two first-choice center backs. At last report, Per Mertesacker remained ill, and Laurent Koscielny faced a fitness test on his back. Some accounts suggest that Koscielny trained with the first team on Friday and should replace Calum Chambers in Arsenal’s lineup at Newcastle.

Would that provide enough stability for Wenger to break up the central midfield pair of Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla?

Or, perhaps more to the point, does Mertesacker’s continued absence dictate the retention of Cazorla to aid Arsenal’s transition from defense to attack? Without Mertesacker’s clever passing, Arsenal probably need Cazorla’s trickery to move quickly upfield.

But Cazorla doesn’t offer the threat on goal that Ramsey does from the center of midfield. Cazorla’s two shots on goal in six attempts in the first three matches are in line with the team’s ineffective rate thus far.

Whatever players Wenger sends out early Saturday, bucking the trend and (re)discovering the knack in front of goal will be the charge. Another scoreless display will intensify the questions.

The Özil Yin and the Alexis Yang

Since Arsenal playmaker Mesut Özil returned to full-time action in late January, questions have arisen about his compatibility with new teammate Alexis. The two have joined forces in seven matches in 2015, during which Alexis has scored just one goal. That's a significant dropoff from his 13-goal production in 18 games without Özil.

This trend has troubled some supporters and commentators, because they see the integration of these two stars as the key to Arsenal's progress. After all, the club paid the two highest transfer fees in the club's history in 2013 and 2014, respectively, to acquire these remarkable players. In the process, Arsenal signaled its reemergence as a prime destination for world-class talent.

These concerns are misplaced. That's because seven matches, plus 531 minutes in eight matches in fall 2014, don't represent a large enough sample size to declare the two mismatched. More to the point, a close study of their playing styles and ability suggests that the two can emerge as ideal complements.

Playing personalities that jibe

Armchair psychoanalysis of professional athletes is always questionable. We've never spoken with them, and, by and large, we wouldn't be qualified to draw clinical conclusions even if we had met them. We are also wrong to expect elite athletes to behave like we would in high-stakes performance environments; as I've written in "Mesut Özil Plays for Arsenal, and You Do Not," their success depends on their acting not like us.

That said, we can observe their playing personalities. Alexis is all visible action, taking on defenders, pressing with abandon, relishing the spolight. Özil operates in the shadows, exploiting the space no one else sees, directing his teammates into promising positions for themselves, deflecting the attention.

These descriptions give rise to an interesting analysis of Alexis as extrovert and Özil as introvert. FourFourTwo's Chas Newly-Burden lays out this case in a compelling fashion in "Özil, Ronaldo, and Football's Distrust of Introverts."

Because football is a team game, though, what matters is how the players work together. Do their styles, preferences, and abilities -- combined and integrated with those of their teammates -- enhance Arsenal's chances of success?

Complementary expertise

Reasonable supporters, football experts, and appreciators of athletic skill and choreography can't honestly conclude that Arsenal would be a better side without Alexis and/or Özil. The suggestion that the two can't flourish also ignores substantial evidence.

In addition to raising the squad's overall levels of quality and play, Özil and Alexis are an almost ideal attacking partnership. It's been argued that Alexis's reluctance to stay in wide areas, shown by his tendency to dribble toward the center, often crowds Özil out of the Arsenal attack. With a less imaginative playmaker, that might be a legitimate concern. But thanks to Özil's vision and refined sense of playing space, Alexis's forays actually create the conditions in which Özil thrives.

Alexis's zealous excursions, even when they aren't successful, force defenses to change their shapes. In the process, they leave space unoccupied, and Özil is probably the best in the world at identifying that space before anyone else and in exploiting the resulting weakness.

The most striking recent example of this phenomenon occurred in Monaco during the second leg of Arsenal's 2-0 win in the Champions League Round of 16. The play preceded Arsenal's second goal and appears in this video starting at the 8:25 mark.

For the entire match, Monaco had been surrounding Alexis with two, three, and sometimes four players. Özil recognized this tendency and the weakness it created elsewhere.

In this instance, Özil has the ball when Alexis drifts parallel to goal, just outsize the penalty area. Monaco midfielder Geoffrey Kondogbia is between the two Arsenal players, but that's not enough coverage to execute Monaco's gameplan.

So Monaco's right midfielder Dirar and right back Fabinho both step toward Alexis. This leaves a gaping hole down Arsenal's left for left back Nacho Monreal to exploit. Özil spots the space and Monreal's run and lifts a pass over all the Monaco defenders, catching Monreal in stride and allowing him to cut the ball back to Theo Walcott. Walcott's shot off the post rebounds to Aaron Ramsey, who shoots home.

Adapting to opponents' adaptations

This combination of awareness and skill is essential because the majority of opponents, like Monaco, are now hyper-conscious of the threat Alexis poses. Premier League sides Crystal Palace, Everton, and Newcastle were all notable in their focus on Alexis, double- and triple-teaming him in an apparent effort to force other Arsenal players to beat them. Indeed, center forward Olivier Giroud's impressive productivity in recent matches might be a consequence of this defensive attention on Alexis.

The player heatmaps and other visualizations on whoscored.com (originating with OptaSports) and the match chalkboards on Arsenal.com show the priority many opponents are now placing on stopping Alexis. Everton sent out three defensive-minded central midfielders, Gareth Barry, James McCarthy, and Muhamed Besic, two of whom largely focused on Alexis's side of the pitch, Arsenal's left. All but one of Barry's and McCarthy's successful tackles occurred on that side, and all their interceptions happened there.

Arsenal varied its attacks as a result. It pushed forward on its left 37 percent of the time, right 37 percent, and centrally 27 percent.

Against Crystal Palace, the attacks went predominantly down the left (again, 37 percent), where Alexis spent most of his time. Palace's primary method of coping with Alexis was to foul him. He drew four fouls, the most among Arsenal players in that match, contributing to his total of 57. That's the fourth-highest figure in the Premier League. (Stats from OptaSports via whoscored.com and from PremierLeague.com.)

These decisions by opponents might be related to Alexis's reduced goalscoring, as much if not more than his tiring or misfiring are. Whatever the mix of factors, the genius and skill of Özil have intervened to provide the perfect complement and to lead Arsenal to success so far in 2015.

Will This Arsenal Side Fulfill Its Potential?

Arsenal's victory over Hull City in the FA Cup was its 30th competitive match since the start of the season. After those 30 contests, the consensus both inside and outside the club has to be that the team's performance has not met expectations.

Following the May 2014 FA Cup triumph and the top-class acquisitions last summer, few expected the team to usher in 2015 by marking a negative milestone. Yet, after the defeat to Southampton on January 1, Arsenal had amassed the fewest points (33) from its first 20 matches in 18 years under manager Arsène Wenger.

The team's relative standing was also poor by the standards set under Wenger. Arsenal stood sixth in the Premier League table on January 2, only the third time since Wenger's arrival that its position was that low after 20 matches.

Reminder of the gap

Although the performance has been inconsistent and disappointing, it's worth remembering two points:

1. The Premier League season is 38 matches long, not 20, and
2. The financial gap between Arsenal and Chelsea and Manchester City has not shrunk

The ability to spend almost indiscriminately on transfer fees and wages does not cause a club to win titles. That would be way too deterministic and would sap the league race of any drama at all. However, the correlation between a club's outlay on players and its final league position has been well documented. That research has shown that higher spending teams enjoy a greater likelihood of success.

How significant is that likelihood? The Pay as You Play blog goes into precise detail on the relationship between spending and success. Its 2012 analysis concluded that a team has to spend roughly 3 1/2 times the normalized median league expenditure on transfer fees and player wages (mTTV) to achieve a 95 percent chance of winning the league. To get similar odds of finishing at least fourth, a club would expect to spend three times the league median.

In 2011, these correlations meant a club needed to lay out £493 million to enjoy 95 percent odds of winning the league, or £375 million for 50-50 odds. Those numbers are based on transfer fees and salaries between the introduction of the Premier League in 1992 and 2011. No more recent figures are available, but I can't imagine the overall expenditure or the multiple of the median has decreased since 2011.

The point here is that even though Arsenal increased its wage bill to £166 million and laid out £54 million net in transfer spending over the 2014 reporting period (see "Arsenal: Money Changes Everything" on the Swiss Ramble blog), its challenge to Manchester City and Chelsea was always going to be difficult. That's because City's wage bill stood at £205 million in 2014, and it had averaged £72 million in net transfer expenditure from 2008 to 2014, while Chelsea paid £176 million in wages in 2014 and had averaged £42 million in net transfer expenditure since 2008. (Sources: The Swiss Ramble, "Manchester City: Roll with It" and SB Nation, "Premier League Transfer Spend over 3, 5, and 7 Years")

So while the FA Cup win, the long run at the top of the table in 2013-14, and the arrivals of Alexis Sanchez, Mathieu Debuchy, and Danny Welbeck may have strengthened the perception that Arsenal had the potential to win the league, the stars still had to align for the team to reach just even odds, according to historical norms, of winning the league.

Star crossed

It's hard to argue that fortune has favored Arsenal this season.

The long and persistent injury list is an obvious factor foiling the club. Particularly damaging has been the chronic lower-leg problems of center half Laurent Koscielny.

As my fellow You Are My Arsenal blogger JokmanAFC has persuasively argued in "Kos Is the Boss and our Most Important Player," the Frenchman is the essential piece in Arsenal's defensive machine. His absences have been unsettling, and the consequences are clear: Arsenal conceded seven more goals in its first 20 matches of the current campaign than it had in the previous season.

The injury problems have also contributed to the other major issue hindering the team's performance so far: the inconsistent attacking lineup. Tim Stillman's most recent column for Arseblog, "Window Shopping," puts it succinctly: "Arsenal have struggled for rhythm."

In a way, this shouldn't be a surprise, given that the team's top attacking talent has played together so seldom. An review of participation in Arsenal's 2,700 minutes of action shows how rarely the potentially effective combinations of attacking players have been on the pitch:

• Mesut Özil and Theo Walcott: 0 minutes together
• Walcott and Oliver Giroud: 0
• Alexis Sanchez and Walcott: 128 (less than 5 percent of total Arsenal match time)
• Alexis and Giroud: 458 (17 percent)
• Alexis and Özil: 531 (20 percent)
• Alexis, Özil, and Giroud: 0
• Alexis, Özil, and Danny Welbeck: 317 (12 percent)

Because intuition and instinct are integral to Wenger's philosophy and system, the absence of these combinations of players for more than 80 percent--and in several cases 100 percent--of Arsenal's playing time has, understandably, produced inconsistent performances.

What to expect

We should account for both the structural financial conditions and the proximate factors of injuries and unsettled player selections when we assess the team's prospects for the remainder of the season. They all point to a low likelihood that Arsenal will enjoy the broad success many of us thought possible in August.

When I say "broad success," I mean a credible title challenge. If you consider that your standard of fulfilled potential, Arsenal will probably fall short.

That doesn't mean that we should give up, though. Many opportunities to enjoy the team should pop up between now and May. A deep run in the FA Cup could thrill us as in 2014, as could victories in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

There's also a possibility that the team, resupplied in attack and more stable in defense, could, on its day, get the better of teams higher in the table. Who knows what effect such victories might have on the rest of this season and next?

Those possibilities are open. They're why we shouldn't give up, even if our initial expectations appear out of reach.

Assessing Arsenal Ten Matches In

Each Premier League campaign has its own dynamics. We can search for patterns, correlations, and precedents, but ultimately every series of 38 matches that begins in August and ends in May takes its own independent shape. That makes the 10-match milepost an arbitrary measuring point.

Even so, it is a point, a round number a little more than a quarter of the way through the season. Arsenal has played more than half the teams in the league, so it's illustrative if not definitive to look at developments thus far.

The message from the overall numbers

A fair expectation at the start of any sporting campaign is for a team to make progress on its previous season. That was a reasonable objective for Arsenal as it set out on its 2014-15 Premier League effort, particularly because the FA Cup triumph, world-class summer signings, and a full season's acclimatization for star playmaker Mesut Özil seemed to have the club on a positive trajectory. (See my preseason assessment, "The Arsenal: Forward, Upward, or on Some Generally Positive Trajectory.")

In a broad-brush analysis, the first 10 matches don't show movement upward. The 2013-14 squad produced 25 points in its first 10 matches, while the 2014-15 version has tallied just 17.

The opposition has been tougher this season, with the competition having averaged 12.7 points from the first 10 matches, compared with 10.9 points in 2013-14. The median figures, which discount the outliers, tell a slightly different story, 11 points vs. 10.5, indicating that the schedule has been only a bit more difficult.

The results from comparable fixtures between the two campaigns aren't as promising, either. Only the draw at Everton marked an improvement on last season's performances, while home draws against Tottenham and Hull City and the away draw against newly promoted Leicester City leave Arsenal five points off its returns from parallel matches in 2013-14.

As a result, over the remaining 28 matches, Arsenal will have to match its wins of 2013-14 and pick up points from draws or losses--such as West Bromwich Albion away, Stoke away, and Aston Villa at home--to reach at least 79 points again.

The positives from relative numbers

Because each season is distinctive, though, Arsenal may not have to amass 79 points to achieve a higher final position in the league table. It all depends on the competition.

At this point, the top of the league is not as congested as it was in 2013-14. Chelsea leads the way with 26 points, and four other clubs have 17 points or more. In 2013-14, Arsenal's 25 points topped the table after 10 matches, while seven others had at least 17 points. That more tightly packed group of early leaders produced the most accomplished top four in points terms in Premier League history.

Let's look at 2010-11, the last season to follow a World Cup, for a different example. That year, Manchester United won the league with 80 points; Arsenal finished fourth with just 68 points, two fewer than both Chelsea and Manchester City. Tottenham were fifth at 62.

The start of that season bears some similarity to the first 10 matches of the current campaign. At the same point, just four teams stood at 17 points or higher, Arsenal among them with 20, putting them in second place. (All standings from tables on premierleague.com.)

Telling statistics

In that competitive setting, one set of in-game statistical measures stands out.

According to whoscored.com, Arsenal has taken the second highest number of shots per game (17.3) through the first ten matches and the third highest shots on goal per game (5.6). However, it's only sixth in goals scored, with 18.

That is, Arsenal has scored on just 10 percent of its shots. Meanwhile, its opponents have produced 11 goals from 74 shots, or 15 percent.

This discrepancy points toward the most prominent statistical difference in Arsenal's offense between 2013-14 overall and this season so far, the number of shots it has taken outside the penalty area. That average figure increased from 5.0 last season to 8.4 in the first ten matches of 2014-15, the highest in the league by 13 percent. None of those shots has gone in.

Indeed, manager Arsène Wenger's own assessment, shared on Arsenal Player before Arsenal faced Burnley in the 10th match of the season, emphasized the point. "On the efficiency front, we can do better," he said, "because if you look at the chances we have created and we have given away, I think we have created many chances, and our finishing was not at the expected level. And we gave very few chances away, but the chances we have given away are of quality, and that's what you want to do better."

If the manager can convey his seriousness about better efficiency to the players, we may see fewer of the ineffective shots from distance going forward.

The qualitative story

Statistics can help us understand performance trends, but fans' interest has more to do with qualitative judgments. In essence, we're assessing if the club is producing entertainment value: Is the team performing attractively as a whole, and are players delivering individually?

The answer to the first question has to be "not yet." With a few exceptions, such as the first 20 minutes against Manchester City and the last 20 against Burnley, the team's performances have left something to be desired.

I'm not inclined to identify a cause or causes because that would produce simplistic and misleading analysis.

What can be said is that injuries to several important players, defenders Mathieu Debuchy and Laurent Koscielny, captain Mikel Arteta, center forward Oliver Giroud, as well as Özil, haven't helped. Tactical shifting may have played a role, too, although I hesitate to conclude that an established approach would have improved the attractiveness or the results.

As for the second question, Alexis has been the standout performer, netting seven goals in his first 10 league matches. Other high-profile summer acquisitions, striker Danny Welbeck and defender Calum Chambers, have also had more solid performances than poor ones. The quality of the new boys overall has therefore been a plus.

Most returning players haven't quite met the standards they set last season, but more telling is the sense that the whole is less than the sum of the parts at the moment.

All the components might add up eventually; that would boost the enjoyment and entertainment we supporters receive. It would also solidify a place closer to the top of the table, even if the raw numbers fall short of last season's. That's something to hold onto amidst legitimate current concerns.