We can expect another change in complexion for Arsenal's EFL Cup quarterfinal match with Southampton on Wednesday.
Manager
Arsène Wenger made seven alterations to his starting lineup between
last Wednesday’s Champions League draw with Paris-Saint Germain and
Sunday’s 3-1 league win over Bournemouth. The only holdovers were
central defenders Laurent Koscielny and Shkodran Mustafi, playmaker
Mesut Özil, and center forward Alexis Sanchez.
Selecting that
quartet for two high-profile matches shows its importance to the current
Arsenal team. In all likelihood, Koscielny, Mustafi, Özil, and Alexis
will get a deserved rest against Southampton. They will have few
opportunities for days off before the return fixture against Bournemouth
on January 2.
In their places, Wenger will send out young players
and squad stalwarts—Rob Holding and Gabriel in the center of defense,
for example, and Alex Iwobi in the attacking midfield.
The center
forward choice will be an interesting one. Recent league supersub
Olivier Giroud would get the nod up front, but he tweaked his groin on
Sunday and may need more time to recover. Lucas Perez will be in the
squad after a month-injury absence; he might not be ready to start,
though.
The other options would be Theo Walcott, replaced by
Giroud after 75 minutes on Sunday, Iwobi as part of a fluid front four,
or debutante Stephy Mavididi. None ideal. As a result, Wenger may have
to fend off arguments from the indefatigable and insistent Alexis for
another run-out.
We’ll also see Kieran Gibbs return to left back
and Francis Coquelin to the center of midfield. Other candidates for
starting roles include Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Jeff Reine-Adelaide, Alex
Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Chris Willock.
All have earned playing time in Arsenal’s two wins in this competition. They’ll be backed by goalkeeper Emi Martinez.
This
group will face its stiffest test in this competition so far. Not only
are Southampton the first top-flight side to play Arsenal in this year’s
cup, the Saints have posed serious challenges to the Gunners of late.
Arsenal’s 2-1, stoppage-time, league win in September was just their
second in seven outings against Southampton. That included a 2-1 loss in
this competition two years ago.
Like Wenger, Southampton manager
Claude Puel should adjust his starting XI from the one that defeated
Everton 1-0 at the weekend. The Saints’ schedule is just as busy as the
Gunners’, with a return to London against Crystal Palace and a crunch
Europa League matchup with Hapoel Be’er Sheva in the next eight days.
There’s
also precedent for Puel to rotate for this competition. He switched
nine starters between Southampton’s league draw at Manchester City and
the 1-0 home win over Sunderland in the last round.
Key Matchup
Alex
Iwobi against Harrison Reed and Jordy Clasie. If Özil does get the
break as anticipated, much of Arsenal’s creative burden will fall to
Iwobi. He has not made much of an impact recently—as is normal for
players who burst into the first team. Southampton are a difficult team
to unlock, largely because their deep midfielders and defenders work so
well together. Iwobi will need to find his daring and execution to
create chances for his teammates.
Where to Worry
Shane
Long annoys Arsenal every time he faces them. The Irish striker is
tireless both in his running and in his niggly fouling. He’ll try to get
under Gabriel’s skin and hope for a mistake from the relatively
inexperienced defensive partnership of Arsenal.
Match Verdict
This
one has the makings of a cagey and uneven affair. Because both teams
will have relatively new makeups, synching the attacks might prove
difficult. The heightened, if only mildly, pressure of a quarterfinal
with Wembley on the distant horizon might also have a psychological
effect on the players.
Players to Watch
Arsenal. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
His double propelled Arsenal to a 2-0 win over Reading in the last
round. The incentive of facing his former club, plus his improved
performances aside from his North London Derby cameo, could push him to
make a telling impact here.
Southampton. Stuart Taylor.
The ex-Arsenal man, now 36, may get his Southampton debut in goal in
the absence of Alex McCarthy. He’ll need all that experience and good
relationships with his back four to keep Arsenal’s youthful attack from
bamboozling him.
When Arsenal's offense hums, playmaker Mesut Özil orchestrates it.
But neither he nor the team got into a rhythm in Saturday’s 1-1 draw
with Manchester United. The Gunners’ inability to register a shot on
target until Olivier Giroud’s equalizer in the 89th minute seems like clear proof of the team’s ineffectiveness on the day.
Combine
that reality with the hosts’ crisper passing and effective defending,
and you get a rather unpleasant display for Arsenal fans. A pleasing
result, no doubt, but not with the aesthetic quality we would like to
see.
Pause from the monocause
As ever in
this era of reductive outrage, many observers laid the responsibility at
the feet of either Özil or Aaron Ramsey. The attacking midfielders
carried the creative potential in this particular starting XI; the other
members of the front six tended to the direct (Alexis, Theo Walcott) or
the risk managers (Francis Coquelin, Mohammed Elneny).
It’s true
that neither Özil nor Ramsey created a chance for a teammate. Between
them, they completed only one pass in the opposition penalty area. And
neither took a shot.
So at one level you can see why Arsenal’s two talents took criticism for the pedestrian display overall.
But those complaints, true to our age, oversimplify complex developments.
Kelly Wood’s defense of Ramsey, “Aaron Ramsey! He is Great,”
hammers the Ramsey critics effectively, so I won’t restate her points
here. What I will do instead is try to understand the dynamics that
brought on this performance, particularly from Özil.
So, what’s Özil’s scenario?
First,
the statistics don’t reveal anything out of the ordinary. Özil
completed 58 passes against Manchester United, just one fewer than his
season average. His passing accuracy of 86 percent was only one
percentage point lower than his norm so far this year.
The
difference was where Özil did this work. Instead of combining with
Alexis and Walcott on the edge or in Manchester United’s penalty area,
the German playmaker operated much closer to midfield. The heat maps on whoscored.com
show Özil frequenting the middle third. That was a change of his sphere
of influence, given that he’s one of the Premier League’s most prolific
final-third passers.
Not only did this shift of activity take
Özil away from where he’s most dangerous, it jammed him into an area
where others were operating. In particular, Alexis dropped deep from his
center forward position to receive the ball—note the overlap with Özil
on the heat map.
Rather than creating triangles to facilitate
quick passing, the Gunners’ close proximity to each other in midfield
allowed Manchester United’s midfielders to clog the spaces.
There was another team on the pitch
That was central to Jose Mourinho’s brutal design.
The
Manchester United manager set out to deny Özil opportunities on the
ball. The German genius often found himself surrounded by three
opposition players—center backs Marcos Rojo and Phil Jones pushing up
and midfielder Michael Carrick shielding passes into him. When he
ventured to the left, right back Antonio Valencia and a central
midfielder usually had him cornered.
Loosening these defensive
shackles proved difficult. It required guile and skill from Özil's
midfield teammates or a dangerous distraction elsewhere.
For all
their positive qualities and contributions, Coquelin and Elneny could
not provide the craft to free Özil. The central pair focused on breaking
up the hosts’ attacks and making the simple pass out. These two
responsibilities were difficult enough, what with the harassment they
received from Ander Herrera.
To find the well-marshalled Özil, they needed more daring.
Creative
responsibility wasn’t their brief, though, as manager Arsène Wenger
admitted afterward. “I knew it would be a bit more of a physical battle,
so I chose players who have experience and fight,” he told Arsenal.com.
Method to the midfield
There’s
a logic to this approach. Many factors weighed against Arsenal in this
match, even if this wasn’t the most fearsome Manchester United lineup of
all time.
Early kickoff. Return from the international break. The
Mourinho hoodoo. A 10-year league victory drought at Old Trafford.
Injuries to dynamic players like Hector Bellerin and Santi Cazorla.
In
that context, you can understand a more circumspect approach from
Arsenal. Wenger was right that midfield robustness was important; it’s
just that his charges didn’t cope superbly with the aggressiveness of
Manchester United in that area of the pitch.
They handled it well
enough to get a draw. If the players’ post-game comments are a true
indication, they’ll be honest in their assessment of the performance and
optimistic that better outings lie ahead.
Arsenal travel to Bulgaria to face Ludogorets Razgrad on Tuesday,
with the opportunity of setting the pace in Champions League Group A.
The
Gunners are level on points with Paris Saint-Germain and have a
superior goal difference, so the target of winning the group is within
reach with three matches to go.
The team shouldn’t grab for that objective prematurely, though. Any dip in performance or focus could be costly here.
Ludogorets
posed dangers two weeks ago when they visited the Emirates. Yes,
Arsenal ran out 6-0 winners, but there were moments in the first half
when Arsenal goalkeeper David Ospina had to intervene and prevent the
Bulgarian side from seizing the initiative.
Indeed, Ludogorets did
not follow the pattern most visitors use in North London: Rather than
defending deep, they opened the game and sought to capitalize on
Arsenal’s aggressiveness. They were particularly adept in transition,
moving quickly from the wings to playmaker Marcelinho.
This
success should make Arsenal wary. All the more so because first choice
right back Hector Bellerin did not make the trip to Sofia. In his place,
we’ll see either Carl Jenkinson, with only one Arsenal start since May
2014, or regular center half Shkodran Mustafi.
The center of
Arsenal’s midfield will also look different. Santi Cazorla remains
injured, and Francis Coquelin may get a rest before Sunday’s North
London Derby.
The challenge for manager Arsène Wenger is choosing
among the qualities and strengths of four deserving central midfield
choices. Granit Xhaka, out of action since his red card against Swansea,
Coquelin, Mohammed Elneny, and Aaron Ramsey all have strong starting
cases.
Our best guess is that Xhaka partners Elneny. It would be
only the second start for the pair. Xhaka-neny’s previous performance
came in Arsenal’s 4-0 EFL Cup win at Nottingham Forest, so in theory the
two can combine effectively.
Whomever the manager picks,
Arsenal’s midfielders need to attend to the home side’s threat.
Ludogorets led PSG at home and drew with Basel in the Champions League.
In domestic competition, they’ve scored 15 goals in their last four
games, so they don’t lack firepower.
Where the hosts may struggle
is in defense. Arsenal possess the speed of thought, movement, and
passing to punish most teams. It’s unlikely that Ludogorets have the
organization and defensive quality to keep the likes of Mesut Özil and
Alexis Sanchez quiet.
Key Matchup
Arsenal’s
fullbacks against Ludogorets’s wide attacking players. Ludogorets will
look for opportunities to isolate Gibbs and Jenkinson/Mustafi.
Wanderson, Misidjan, and Cafú all flashed threats in the first meeting.
If Gibbs keeps up his fine form and his counterpart on the right holds
firm, Arsenal can limit Ludogorets’s effectiveness going forward.
Where to Worry
Too
many changes in Arsenal’s starting XI, some enforced by injury and
others by choice, could create uncertainty the hosts could exploit. Of
particular concern would be the defensive support Arsenal’s right back
receives from the midfielder and wide attacker. Jenkinson or Mustafi
will need help to slot in effectively.
Match Verdict
A
wide-open affair. Ludogorets will likely maintain its European record
of scoring in all its home matches, but Arsenal will field enough
offensive talent to overcome the hosts.
Players to Watch
Arsenal. Alexis.
Arsenal’s dynamo is humming at the moment. Two goals against Sunderland
on Saturday punctuated his all-action performance. His is the kind of
talent and energy that Ludogorets will struggle to contain.
Ludogorets. Marcelinho.
The Brazilian pulled the strings for the Bulgarian side two weeks ago,
completing 89 of 99 passes, both game highs. He also created three
chances for teammates.
