Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Is This Arsenal's Year?

This international break is even less exciting than most, what with just four competitive ties in Europe among pedestrian national sides, World Cup qualifiers far in advance of the actual competition, and a host of friendlies. The main benefit of the current hiatus is the opportunity to assess Arsenal’s start to the season and the club’s prospects.

Arsenal have played 12 matches in the Premier League and return to action on Saturday with 26 points, the same as league leaders Manchester City. Will the Gunners be there in May?

A more favorable feeling


Because the dynamics of each campaign are different, obsessing over parallels with seasons past isn’t especially productive. Still, there might be lessons supporters and the players can draw from the 2013-14 league season, for example, when Arsenal topped the table after 12 matches.

“The second half [of that season], we dropped,” left back Nacho Monreal told Arsenal Player. “So we need to learn about that. The team is different now. We have different players—more competitive. I think the level of the team is better now.”

It’s hard to argue that point. The additions of Alexis Sanchez and Petr Cech and the acclimatization of Mesut Özil brought three game changers to the side; recruitment in the summer of 2014 gave the squad needed depth; and the emergence of Francis Coquelin and Hector Bellerin added to the dynamism in the playing style.

Much has also been made of the team’s camaraderie and mindset. As Cech observed from his many successful seasons with Chelsea,
You never win things without being focused, without being right in the training ground. So far, I have to say that the team are focused on what we are doing every day, and I have to say, this is the key.

The results, at least in the League, provide the evidence. Arsenal have what it takes to compete with the top sides. The 3-0 demolition of Manchester United, still the team with the league’s best defensive record, is a clear sign of the Gunners’ ability to dominate a match at the summit.

They’ve also summoned the quality of winning when they’re not at their best, such as the 2-1 victory over an energetic Everton side, and have been able to grind out draws that in years past may have turned into losses.

The sample size is small, but two performances after taxing Champions League ties illustrate a possible difference between the seasons. In 2013, Arsenal traveled to Germany, endured the indefatigable pressing of Jürgen Klopp’s Borussia Dortmund side, and escaped with a 1-0 win. Four days later, a drained Arsenal team lost 1-0 to Manchester United at Old Trafford. This season, the Arsenal team, exhausted by a 5-1 battering in Munich and seemingly overwhelmed by illness, injury, and Mauricio Pochettino’s midfield press, rallied to secure a 1-1 draw with Tottenham and finished that match its more likely winners.

A comparison of results


Beyond such anecdotes, do the numbers indicate that this team has reached a higher level of competitiveness?

In total, the 26 points from the first 12 matches (W8 D2 L2) is two fewer than the Arsenal of 2013-14 compiled over the similar opening period. The difference, really, is that of one draw in 2015 that was a win in 2013.

Given the strength of the two schedules, though, that’s a good outcome. At this point in the 2013 campaign, the median position of the Gunners’ first 12 league opponents was 11.5; this season, it’s 9.5.

Indeed, in 2013, nine of Arsenal’s first 12 opponents found themselves in the 11th to 20th league positions after 12 matches. Arsenal won seven of those nine matches, drew one (at West Bromwich Albion), and lost one, the opener against Aston Villa. That’s a total of 22 of 28 points, or 79 percent, from matches against the league’s poorer sides.

Among the first 12 opponents this season, by contrast, only five occupied a bottom-half spot after 12 matches. Arsenal won four of those matches and lost one (at Chelsea), amassing 12 of 26 points, or 46 percent, against teams below the current league midpoint.

The majority of Arsenal’s points, then, have come against teams in the top half of the league. There have been two decisive victories against teams in the top four, two wins and two draws against teams in positions five through 10, and the opening day loss to West Ham, currently sixth in the table.

In short, although the points total is slightly lower this season, the results are more encouraging, considering the competition.

Relative performance to date


How do these early results look in comparison to those of the other main title contenders?

The degree of difficulty in Manchester City’s schedule has been much lower than Arsenal’s, yet City haven’t accumulated any more points. The median league position of its opponents after 12 matches is 12.0.

They’ve played every team in the bottom six except 19th-ranked Sunderland and built their goal differential advantage with a five-goal win over Newcastle (#17) and a four-goal win over Bournemouth (#18).

At this point, the other main challenger for the title appears to be Manchester United. They’ve amassed 24 points from their first 12 matches, against opponents with a median position of 9.5. That’s identical to Arsenal’s strength of schedule.

The breakdown of matches against top-four opponents, those in positions five through 10, and those in the bottom half of the table is identical for Arsenal and Manchester United. The performance gap between the two is small, but so far Arsenal have fared better against the top four, winning two and losing none to Manchester United’s one draw and one loss.

Other statistics, such as expected goals (xG) and the difference between expected goals for and against, put Arsenal squarely in contention for the Premier League title.

The preliminary conclusion


More than two thirds of the season remains, and developments both foreseeable and unforeseeable will influence the final outcome. Health, particularly of Özil, Alexis, Coquelin, and Santi Cazorla, is probably the most important factor.

Injuries and other factors may favor the Gunners in ways they haven't in years past, or they may not. It’s that unpredictability that drives interest in sporting endeavors.

The most we can therefore do is give a “qualified yes” answer to the question “Is this Arsenal’s year?” Anything more definitive would just ruin the fun anyway.

Monday, November 9, 2015

Arsenal 1 Tottenham 1: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal fought back from a goal down to secure a 1-1 draw with Tottenham in the 161st installment of the North London Derby.

Mesut Özil again provided the crucial pass, finding substitute Kieran Gibbs with a cross at the far post. Gibbs got enough of the ball to bundle it past Spurs keeper Hugo Lloris, negating Harry Kane’s first half strike for Spurs and Tottenham’s superiority during the middle section of the match.

Here are three things we learned from the contest.

Arsenal now have the players to deliver the points


Although Spurs controlled much of the play, Arsenal had enough quality to make the key moments count. Özil and goalkeeper Petr Cech, players with international pedigree, exerted their influence at the right times to prevent defeat.

The German playmaker delivered an assist in his sixth consecutive league game and his 10th in 11 league appearances. The former is an unprecedented feat for a player on one Premier League team. His assist total could have been even higher, but for some slightly wayward finishing by striker Olivier Giroud. Overall, Özil created seven chances for teammates, according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app.

Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger hailed his silky midfielder’s progress and contribution after the match. “He was outstanding again,” said Wenger. “He has grown into a very great player as he has added commitment, leadership qualities, and responsibility, and I’m very pleased with his development.”

Another experienced hand earned widespread praise for keeping the Gunners in this match. Cech had to stop goal-bound shots by Christian Ericksen and Toby Alderweireld in the match’s third quarter; otherwise, Arsenal would have trailed by two goals with little prospect of recovery.

The save of Alderweireld’s shot was especially important. The Spurs’ defender got himself free to receive a corner kick and directed a strong header at goal. Cech’s positioning and reflexes were exactly what they needed to be for the moment; this intervention gave Arsenal the chance of equalizing.

As Wenger put it, “He has shown again how important he is and that maybe goalkeeper is maybe the most underrated position in football, because there is a moment he can keep you in it. If you go 2-0 down, it’s bye-bye.”

Thanks to Cech and Özil, Arsenal did not have to depart this match with nothing.

A depleted Arsenal can survive—and nearly thrive


The Arsenal injury list consisted of seven players, three starters among them, prior to the match. That was actually a slight improvement from earlier in the week, due to the returns of Laurent Koscielny and Mikel Arteta to the squad.

But the strain was still significant. Midfielder Santi Cazorla, whose partnerships with Özil and Francis Coquelin are so important to the team’s flow and defensive solidity, was suffering from dizziness and nausea and could hardly kick the ball straight. Wenger replaced him at halftime.

Offensive dynamo Alexis doesn’t seem right, either. He’s been playing with some combination of a groin strain and fatigue for a month, and his knack for goals has left him.

Right back Mathieu Debuchy, himself a replacement for the injured Hector Bellerin, took a knock in the second half and had to come off just after the Gibbs goal. As a result, the team spent the ultimate period of the match with Mathieu Flamini, inserted for Cazorla in midfield, at right back and Gibbs at left wing.

Yet this ragtag bunch looked the more likely winners in the end, even though Spurs had fielded its first-choice lineup playing to the top of its capabilities. That’s an indication of this team’s desire and potential.

Mathieu Debuchy should stop talking


Anyone who pays the slightest attention to Arsenal knows that Mathieu Debuchy is dissatisfied. The Frenchman suffered the misfortune of two long-term injuries last season, his first at the club, and encountered the emergence of the phenom Hector Bellerin. As a result, Debuchy, who wants a spot on the French national team for the European Championships on home soil next summer, found himself on the Arsenal bench.

When Debuchy has gotten the opportunities to regain his place, he hasn’t made the most of them. To a certain extent, that’s understandable: It’s hard for many professional athletes to perform at their best with sporadic playing time.

But rather than knuckling down and improving his performances, Debuchy has made strong public hints of his desire to leave Arsenal for playing time elsewhere. That’s not optimal public relations work from a player who’s been involved in the team’s worst outings this year. To use a term from hockey, Debuchy has a plus/minus of minus-9, capturing the losses to West Ham, Dinamo Zagreb, and Bayern Munich.

A better approach than voicing his discontents would be to capitalize on the slight progress he made on Sunday. Debuchy succeeded on nine of 10 tackles and displayed an improved awareness of his position relative to those of his teammates. He’ll need to show improvements like these when he gets further opportunities if he’s going to catch the eyes of any suitors or French manager Didier Deschamps.

Extra time


Francis Coquelin does not surrender. With his comrade Santi Cazorla playing at peak peaked, Coquelin was practically alone in Arsenal midfield as Tottenham pressed. The Frenchman held his own, making nine ball recoveries, tied for most in the match, and succeeding on six of eight tackles. He also committed no fouls. Without Coquelin’s clever, stalwart play, Spurs would likely have enjoyed a comprehensive and insurmountable advantage.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Bayern Munich 5 Arsenal 1: Three Things We Learned

Bayern Munich swamped Arsenal 5-1 on Wednesday, putting the Gunners’ hopes of qualifying for the Champions League knockout phase for the 16th consecutive season in considerable doubt.

With Bayern’s dominant, three-goal first half, this result was foregone by halftime. The night’s meaningful question was what would happen in Athens, where Olympiacos trailed Dinamo Zagreb and gave the Gunners hope that they might still control their European destiny.

Olympiacos scored late to win, though, meaning Arsenal must win its final two matches, including at least a two-goal win on the group stage’s last night in Athens, and trust Bayern to beat the Greek team, to move on.

That’s the big conclusion of the night. Here are three other things we learned.

Arsène Wenger has the Premier League in his sights


The Arsenal manager invariably speaks about his focus on the next game and how it’s the most important. There was a hint of something else prior to this match, though.

Wenger kept star defenders Laurent Koscielny and Hector Bellerin out of Wednesday’s action, allowing them to recover from “small” injuries in advance of a major Premier League test against Tottenham on Sunday.

That decision is worth noting.

It suggests the manager and his staff sense an opportunity to compete for the league title and that they’re willing to put the European campaign aside to enhance that domestic opportunity. Doing so requires wisdom and restraint, particularly because Wenger has long coveted the top European trophy.

No doubt he expected a less damning result in Munich, but as long as he and his players can put it in the vault, this continental setback won’t be any more consequential for their league prospects than was the 3-2 loss to Olympiacos. We shouldn’t forget that that defeat immediately preceded Arsenal’s 3-0 destruction of Manchester United.

The first goal was the killer


The early moments of the game were actually promising for Arsenal. The Gunners had a shot in anger in the opening minute, passed crisply when they had the ball, and forced Bayern into shots from distance.

Hope of another upset was largely snuffed out by Robert Lewandowski’s 10th-minute header. The Polish striker slipped the attentions of Gabriel, who was alone among the Arsenal back line in dropping deep when Thiago had the ball near the right corner of Arsenal’s penalty area. Lewandowski’s well-placed effort gave Arsenal goalkeeper Petr Cech no chance.

This early goal meant Arsenal could not absorb the Bayern pressure as the Gunners had so successfully done two weeks ago. They had to seek a tying goal, creating the space and time on the ball that Bayern was designed to exploit. The only question was how ruthlessly they would do so.

Having lost to Arsenal, the German giants weren’t inclined to let up. That intensity—plus Arsenal’s sub-par defensive effort and ill fortune with officiating—sealed the Gunners fate on the day.

Arsenal’s first-choice defense is a well-oiled machine


Replacing Bellerin with Mathieu Debuchy and Koscielny with Gabriel shrank Arsenal’s margin of error. Indeed, the changes caused enough instability for Bayern’s talent to thrive.

A poorly synchronized back line left Lewandowski onside for the opening goal, and Debuchy’s tendency to drift into the center gave Bayern’s dangerous wide men the run of their left flank. The Frenchman wasn’t even effective at clogging the middle, failing to clear a pass that then fell to Thomas Müller, who fired off Per Mertesacker and into the net for Bayern’s second goal.

On Arsenal’s left, Bayern finally found a way to isolate left back Nacho Monreal, using runners from midfield to occupy Arsenal’s central midfielders Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla. This often left Monreal trying to cover two men on his own, Philipp Lahm and Müller or substitute Arjen Robben, because left forward Alexis was understandably focused on attacking. As a result, Bayern always had an outlet and frequently produced uncontested passes into more dangerous areas.

It was quite a contrast from the defensive performances Arsenal’s preferred lineup has delivered this season. The unit of Cech, Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, and Monreal has won all of its matches while conceding just three goals, one at Crystal Palace and two at Leicester City. Crucially, though, the group has played together in just five of Arsenal’s 17 matches in the Premier League, Champions League, and Capital One Cup.

The ability to field that unit consistently might well determine Arsenal’s fortunes in the Premier League.

Extra time

Fair play to Mathieu Debuchy and Olivier Giroud, who kept plugging despite the obvious outcome of this match. Debuchy scampered back to rob Robben of a goal after the Dutchman had rounded Cech, and Giroud produced an exquisite chest control and lashing finish. Such moments were all the more noticeable because they were rare.

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Champions League Match Preview, Bayern Munich v Arsenal: Use Their Anger Against Them

Arsenal confront an apparently enraged Bayern Munich in Germany on Matchday Four of the UEFA Champions League.

The Gunners’ 2-0 win over the previously omnipotent side two weeks ago seems to have stirred up Pep Guardiola’s charges. Star striker Robert Lewandowski, who had two goal-bound shots saved by Arsenal’s Petr Cech at the Emirates, said, “We desperately need the points. We have to show who is the better team.”

Bayern’s motivation isn’t lost on Arsenal. According to Per Mertesacker, who likely enjoys some back-channel communications with several compatriots in the Bavarian side, “They will be angry I guess. We are the first team who really challenged them, so they will be on the ball and try to show that they are back and better than us.” (Arsenal.com)

There’s no question of Bayern’s quality. They’re the Bundesliga’s juggernaut and one of the two best teams in Europe. Guardiola has skillfully mixed the experience of players like Philipp Lahm and Xabi Alonso with the guile of Douglas Costa and Arjen Robben and the firepower of Thomas Müller and Lewandowki.

Arsenal witnessed the threat in Matchday Three, but the Gunners did not cower. Bayern’s skill in and dominance of possession failed to carry the day. That’s largely because Arsenal stayed disciplined in defense, forced Bayern to pass around the perimeter, and intervened only at the most opportune moments.

It’s likely to be the same approach at the Allianz Arena, perhaps with a slight variation. If Bayern let too much emotion affect their style and decisions, they’ll be vulnerable to a martial arts-style response from Arsenal. Frustrate them for another period of time, and they might be more prone to mistakes. Particularly on set pieces.

Arsenal also can’t allow changes in personnel to affect the proceedings too much. A different Gunner will have to summon the energy and intelligence of Aaron Ramsey on the right side of midfield. That’s especially important given the wide threat posed by Costa and Robben, who missed the London leg due to injury.

Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger may rejigger the midfield, bringing in Mathieu Flamini as part of a 4-3-3 formation, but a more likely choice will be to replace Ramsey with Joel Campbell. The Costa Rican had an excellent Premier League debut at Swansea on Saturday, scoring the team’s third goal and displaying a keen will for defending. He’ll have to match that performance—if not improve it—against Bayern.

As if facing Bayern’s wide men weren’t enough of a challenge, Campbell will have to manage the threat with a different right back. Due to Hector Bellerin’s groin injury, Mathieu Debuchy will get the start. The French international has the pedigree to compete in such a headline game; the question is his form. His performances so far this season, including in last week’s Capital One Cup loss at Sheffield Wednesday, have been rusty and unimpressive, to put it charitably. For Arsenal to stay in this contest, Debuchy will have to rise to a very big occasion.

At stake is the Gunners’ control over their own Champions League fate. Escaping Munich with a draw would mean Arsenal could qualify for the knockout phase with wins in their final two matches, regardless of the other results. A win would put them in even better position, level on points with Bayern and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.

Losing tonight, though, would hand the initiative to Olympiacos. If the Greek team beats Dinamo Zagreb in Athens this evening, a draw against Bayern in two weeks would secure passage to the knockout stage and destroy Arsenal’s chances of progressing.

There’s still a lot of football to be played and therefore a variety of possible outcomes in the competition. But those outcomes will look a lot more promising if Arsenal avoid losing this evening.

Players to Watch:


Arsenal: Olivier Giroud. Arsenal’s center forward changed the complexion of the match at the Emirates, winning the physical battles with Bayern’s central defenders and scoring the decisive goal. The Frenchman, who has six goals in his last six matches for club and country, has also scored at the Allianz Arena before. Another opportunistic goal would strengthen the Gunners immeasurably.
Bayern Munich: Arjen Robben. You can’t take your eyes off that pointy, bald head anyway, so you might as well watch the Dutchman. Although everyone knows his signature move, he’s so quick and wily he’s still difficult to stop. Debuchy and/or Nacho Monreal, and importantly, the assistance they get from Arsenal’s midfielders and forwards, will be sorely tested.

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Swansea City 0 Arsenal 3: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal emerged 3-0 winners over Swansea City in a match suitably bizarre for the day.

Although the Gunners looked out of it for most of the first half, second-half goals from Olivier Giroud, Laurent Koscielny, and Joel Campbell secured the victory. Koscielny's goal, prompted by a borderline foul on/error by Swans and former Arsenal goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski, and the score by Campbell in his first Premier League start were oddly fitting on Halloween.

Here are three things we learned from the match.

Mesut Özil is the Premier League's most dangerous man


We're still early in the Premier League campaign, but it's becoming clear that Arsenal's playmaker and record signing can push the Gunners to contend for the title. In the 10 matches Özil has played, he's tallied nine assists and created 47 chances, according to Squawka.

As 7AM Kickoff has pointed out in his "By the Numbers" articles for Arseblog, Özil has a real chance to deliver more than 20 assists this season. He's on an unreal pace of 0.96 assists per 90 minutes so far.

He picked up two more assists on Saturday, finding Giroud with a corner in the 49th minute, then working an intricate move with Alexis Sanchez on the left before fizzing a pass across the box to Campbell for the final Arsenal goal.

Özil also started the sequence that led to Koscielny's goal. When no Swansea player closed him down on Arsenal's right, he spotted the chaos in the Swansea penalty area and sent in the cross that Ashley Williams failed to clear properly. Fabianski, Giroud, and Koscielny were all waiting for the ball to come down, and Koscielny came away with it.

At the source of all these passages were Özil's ability to recognize the way to cause Swansea the most danger and the skill to execute the decisive play. It's a deadly combination.

Joel Campbell keeps the balance


A major question leading up to the match addressed the right attacking midfield position in Arsenal's 4-2-3-1 formation. With six more likely candidates for that role injured, manager Arsène Wenger gave a league debut to Campbell, who, despite some credible performances on loan and on international duty, had never shown he could reach the level required at Arsenal.

Campbell's calm finish, if not his celebration, certainly showed he belonged, but more than that, he slotted seamlessly into the existing Arsenal framework.

The Costa Rican helped move the attack forward, exchanging tidy passes with right back Hector Bellerin and the central midfielders. With Swansea understandably focusing on the threat Alexis posed on Arsenal's left, Campbell proved willing to take a shot when he had a sight of goal.

He also hustled to reach the right defensive positions. That was especially important due to the danger posed by the tricky Swansea winger Jefferson Montero. Although Montero caused a few nervous moments, Bellerin and Campbell managed the threat admirably.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Arsenal team could proceed as normal. In light of the successful recent performances, allowing his teammates to stick to their roles and strengths was Campbell's most important contribution.

Arsenal can survive risks and wobbles


This was as shaky a 3-0 victory as you're likely to see.

Particularly in the first half, Arsenal seemed vulnerable. The choice to use a high defensive line seemed overly risky given Montero's wiliness, the ability of Jonjo Shelvy and Ki Sung-Yeung to pick a pass, and the Gunners' struggles against Swansea last season.

The high line nearly proved calamitous midway through the first half, when Shelvy found Bafetimi Gomis and sent the striker clean through on Petr Cech's goal. Only the experience of Cech and the speed of Bellerin prevented Arsenal from going 1-0 down.

Giroud's goal early in the second half steadied things somewhat, but, even then, Arsenal made some odd choices. The defense was less coordinated and diligent than you'd expect from a team looking to protect a lead and counterattack. A few times Swansea players found space just outside the Arsenal area and took a crack at goal or nearly worked a teammate free.

Still, Swansea managed just eight shots on goal and only two in the penalty area. When the three Swans' shots did work Cech, he was more than ready.

The sixth clean sheet in 11 league matches--and the lowest number of goals conceded in the league--are evidence of the stability Cech has brought to the Arsenal defense.

Extra time


Hector Bellerin doesn't just have a future; he has a present. As one-half of the league's best fullback tandem, the young Spaniard has brought quick interventions, sound positioning, and a real offensive threat to Arsenal's right side.

Against Swansea, he figuratively busted a gut to prevent Gomis from scoring and later literally busted one, throwing himself into the post to clear André Ayew's offside effort off the line.

Bellerin's contributions already and his clear talent warrant a long-term contract.

Friday, October 30, 2015

Match Preview, Swansea City v Arsenal: Beware the Welsh Bogeyman

A Halloween trip to South Wales should be a scary enough prospect for Arsenal.

Swansea City have sent shivers down Gunners’ spines under current Swans boss Garry Monk, who took over in February 2014. Monk has an undefeated record against Arsenal, having won both league encounters last season and drawn the match at the Emirates in March 2014.

That recent record is just one ominous sign for the fraidy-cats among Arsenal supporters. They’re also trepidacious about the prospect of fielding an ill-equipped attacker on the right side due to the injuries of six first-team players capable of playing that position. With Aaron Ramsey, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Danny Welbeck, Jack Wilshere, Theo Walcott, and Tomas Rosicky all out, manager Arsène Wenger has hinted that he’ll choose between Joel Campbell and Alex Iwobi.

The thinking here is that Campbell will get the nod. The Costa Rican international has at least some pedigree at the senior level and the defensive experience to help right back Hector Bellerin cope with Swansea’s tricky winger Jefferson Montero.

Although Swansea’s recent success against Arsenal and the instability at one position figure prominently in the pre-match horror stories, the prospects might not be that frightening after all. That’s because Swansea have struggled to create a consistent offensive threat.

Yes, the Swans famously came from a goal down to beat Manchester United in late August. But since then, they’ve won just one of six league matches. In that stretch, they’ve been held scoreless by Stoke, Everton, and Watford.

As Adrian Clarke noted in this week’s Official Arsenal Weekly podcast, Stoke stifled Swansea by funneling their hosts’ attacks to the center of the pitch. From there, the Swans could not generate anything incisive. They put just two shots on target of the 14 they attempted.

Swansea’s inefficiency grew out of the source of their shots: nine of the 14 came from outside the penalty area. That’s consistent with the team’s choices and production throughout this league campaign, during which they’ve taken 67 of 131 shots (51 percent) from outside the area. Only Watford has tried a higher proportion of shots from that inefficient part of the pitch. (Stats from whoscored.com)

Given the provenance of these attempts on goal, it’s perhaps not surprising that Swansea have scored just nine non-penalty goals on their own. Two penalties and an own goal take the total to 12.

By contrast, Arsenal have netted 16 goals, none from penalties and two from opposition own goals. The secret has been a heightened focus on shooting from dangerous areas: According to Squawka, the Gunners’ 142 shots from within the penalty area (of 197 total shots) lead the league and are 27 percent higher than shots from similar positions by Manchester City, which ranks second.

This set of statistics shows how Arsenal can survive a visit to the Liberty Stadium—maintain defensive discipline, force Swansea’s dangerous wide attackers André Ayew and Montero into the middle, and continue to take high-quality shots on goal.

Players to Watch


Arsenal: Francis Coquelin. If Arsenal succeed at directing Swansea’s attack to the center of the pitch, Coquelin will be the player to stop the moves and start Arsenal’s offense. His distribution has improved greatly this season (see 7AM Kickoff), so that the creative geniuses of Mesut Özil and Santi Cazorla have been able to shine.

Swansea City: Ki Sung-yueng. Ayew is the Swans’ top goal scorer, but the Korean midfielder seems the side’s most influential player. He adds control, energy, and the right passing choices to the mix and will be crucial to the contest in the midfield.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Arsenal 2 Everton 1: Three Things We Learned

Headed goals separated by 90 seconds by Oliver Giroud and Laurent Koscielny and another late save from Petr Cech secured Arsenal's hard-fought 2-1 win over Everton.

Although the Gunners enjoyed more possession and created more danger than the Toffees, the indigestion was still there among Arsenal supporters as the visitors came close several times to drawing level. Stout defending saw off the challenge and sent Arsenal, perhaps temporarily, to the top of the Premier League table.

Here are three things we learned from the match.

This Arsenal side can dig deep


Arsenal's third intense match in a week's time required considerable fortitude. The conditions were unpleasant, to say the least. Rain made the ball slick and the pitch slow.

Everton played with the energy and intent of a team with something to prove after the 3-0 home defeat to Manchester United last week. Their physical and mental readiness wasn't affected by midweek European action, either.

The Gunners, meanwhile, were four days removed from a grueling, emotional win over Bayern Munich, which came after a patient but taxing victory at Watford.

Arsenal showed the effects of this schedule--the fullback pair of Hector Bellerin and Nacho Monreal in particular seemed to flag--but in the moments that mattered, the concentration and performance reached a high level.

Central defenders Koscielny and Gabriel were especially effective during critical passages of play, intercepting threatening passes for Everton striker Romelu Lukaku. We'll not soon forget Gabriel's late tackle away from the Belgian and primal scream that showed his desire to finish the job.

The intervention of Cech was also crucial. His 86th-minute scamper to block Gerard Deulofeu's open shot prevented the dangerous but divey Spaniard from yet again snatching a point for his team at the Emirates.

A goalkeeper with that kind of focus must provide both an example and confidence for the rest of the team.

Cazözil is a distinctively spectacular midfield combination


Maybe this match didn't teach us about the skill and influence of Arsenal's two midfield geniuses. Most knowledgeable supporters and observers already recognized the special qualities of Santi Cazorla and Mesut Özil.

Against Everton the duo's mastery was on full display.

Each notched an assist with perfect passes into the dangerous area in front of Tim Howard's goal. Those were two of the ten key passes, five each, that Cazorla and Özil made during the match.

That's strong evidence of their incisiveness. In the attacking third, Cazorla completed 28 of 33 passes (85 percent), while Özil connected on 30 of 34 (88 percent). Unbelievable efficiency in the most crowded part of the pitch.

The pair also worked together to propel Arsenal forward. According to FourFourTwo's StatsZone app, Cazorla and Özil were involved in the match's two top passing combinations, finding each other a total of 36 times.

The offensive flow that Arsenal achieves owes to the influence of these two remarkable players.

Arsenal's match management is a work in progress


It's a test of the physical, mental, and psychological, individually and collectively, to succeed consistently at the high level at which Arsenal competes. Naturally, the players and the team don't earn perfect grades on every such examination.

On Saturday, Arsenal showed it has room for improvement in managing the dynamics of a match. Instead of consolidating its lead by placing priority on defense just before halftime, the Gunners kept moving forward. A perhaps ill-advised shot by Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain helped Everton launch a dangerous counterattack, from which an unlucky deflection brought Ross Barkley's goal.

The thought could have been to score a third goal before the break in order to demoralize Everton and put the game beyond much doubt. But the risk associated with that decision, especially against a team so effective in open spaces as Everton, probably outweighed the reward.

What's encouraging is that the lesson did not prove damaging. And the match showed Arsenal's capacity for another type of victory.

Extra time


If Arsenal add set-piece goals to the repertoire, they'll be devastating. The Gunners have three goals from corners, crosses and throw-ins in this Premier League season, half as many as the top performers in that category, Leicester City, West Ham, and Crystal Palace. (Stats from Opta via Squawka.com)

We know how effective the Gunners can be on the counterattack, with intricate passing moves, and with individual moments of brilliance. The high expected goals stats are evidence of that. Delivering more set-piece goals would make Arsenal a diversified, and difficult to stop, offensive force.