When to Expect Arsenal's Next Transfer

Last week’s arrival of the skillful and feisty Swiss midfielder Granit Xhaka seemed perfectly coordinated with the unlikely St. Totteringham’s Day of May 22^nd to tamp down unrest in the Arsenal fanbase.

Yet after the revelations of this spring, you have to wonder how widespread that unrest is.

The situation on the ground and in the ground

In particular, all the hullabaloo and lobbying from three supporter groups resulted in only the most tepid and amateurish of protests during Arsenal’s 1-0 win over Norwich on April 30^th. This led some observers, Arseblog’s Tim Stillman prominent among them, to suggest that social media produce an inaccurate representation of Arsenal support.

That certainly jibed with my experience at the Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion matches earlier in April. There was localized grumpiness and limited encouragement during the uninspired display against Palace, but I would describe the environment as disinterested rather than toxic. Two early goals against West Brom and a different fan demographic made that a more festive affair.

The atmosphere at these matches surprised me a little, because with my support restricted by distance to television, blogs, and Twitter, I had feared outright revolt in person. What I got instead was more evidence that the self-regard, outrage, and hyperbole we witness through social media aren’t pervasive among our fellow supporters.

How time rolls

In addition to attitude, social media tends to warp the sense of time. The immediacy of the vehicle, especially Twitter, creates an endless desire for news and feedback. But, in the real time experienced by most people, revelations and faux-revelations are not constant.

It’s worth remembering the different dynamics of virtual and earthbound existence during the close season. The patterns of the league and cup competitions aren’t there to guide us through the summer months, but the appetites and expectations driven by social media don’t abate.

To satisfy these desires, many fans look to the club’s player acquisitions. Intensified by print and broadcast media, supporters’ hunger for transfer news has further distorted reality. Now, we’ve reached the point where some observers expect their own needs for news to drive the club’s decisions. As if solipsism and ceaseless satisfaction of the Arsenal twitterati should somehow guide the business.

When manager Arsène Wenger responded to questions about fan discontent by saying “I’m sorry if I can’t keep [everyone] 100 percent happy,” he was referring to the team’s overall performance and its inability to sustain a challenge for the league title. But he could just as easily have been speaking about the way the club conducts its business activities.

Alternatives to PR priority

It doesn’t, for example, let public relations become the dominant priority during the transfer season. That might be an obvious point, considering the futile clamoring of supporters and observers for the acquisition of a top center forward since 2013. Still, Arsenal officials do very little to manage perceptions of what positions need to be filled, and they certainly don’t measure acquisitions to fit the social media news cycle.

More important are the club’s background work, the clarity of negotiations, and the preferences of incoming players. In the case of Xhaka, Arsenal’s scouts “have been watching him for a long time,” in the words of Wenger; Xhaka confirmed that the manager had made the initial contact in mid-2015: “It was a year ago, I was almost speechless when he called!”

From the outside, we can’t know how straightforward the negotiations with Xhaka’s representatives and former club Borussia Mönchengladbach were. The news cycle and popular appetites encourage misinformation, as when stories emerged that Arsenal had lowballed the German club. All we can assess is the outcome, which suggests very little fuss.

The timing also depended on Xhaka’s interest in concluding the move before the start of the European Championships on June 10.

So if any fans are thinking that their own desires and perceptions had anything to do with these events—the position Arsenal are filling, the player’s identity, the unfolding of negotiations, the arrangement of the announcement--all the evidence indicates other factors drove the business.

At the other end of the transfer period, when moves are about to be cut off for four months, the forces could be different. Even so, Arsenal isn’t likely to act based on fans’ longings. Opportunities might materialize, such as when playmaker Mesut Özil became available in late summer 2014. Now that the club has greater, perhaps unprecedented, financial stability, we can expect it to be a buyer more often than a seller in those situations.

No matter what the scenario, the plan for the business and the sporting strategy will guide decisions. Our own personal or collective preferences of what position, which player, or when won’t.

Although a football club’s business is entertainment, Arsenal’s genre isn’t fantasy.

Match Preview, West Ham v Arsenal: Iron On

When I woke up this morning,
It was raining
Yeah, it was pouring again
Still I think the birds were singing
I couldn’t hear them through the din
Couldn’t hear them
Will you send me a picture, so I can remember?
Will you send me a picture, so I can?
- Superchunk, “Iron On”

These lyrics by the standout 90’s group Superchunk might well depict Arsenal’s visit to West Ham on Saturday.

It’ll be the Gunners’ last match at West Ham’s Boleyn Ground, and they may want a picture to remember the site of some favorable results before the Irons’ (get it?) decamp to the Olympic Stadium for the 2016-17 Premier League season. And spring might well bring inclement weather for the kickoff just after noon local time.

But the strongest connection for me is the potential of birds singing amidst the din, the birdsong being a stylish Arsenal performance drowned out by the noise of supporter dissatisfaction. The remoteness of Arsenal’s chances of winning the Premier League dominates the story, while moments of beauty and discrete accomplishments get ignored.

A dominant display by the Gunners on Saturday might level those two narrative hooks.

One reason is that West Ham are a formidable opponent, especially at home. The Irons have not lost in their last 13 matches in Upton Park and sit sixth in the table, just three points off a Champions League spot.

Knocking off West Ham at home will be a sign that Arsenal are capable of winning their remaining six matches. That’s likely to be the only hope Arsenal have of catching league leaders Leicester City.

Another reason the aesthetics of the match might receive more attention after Saturday is the confirmation such a performance would give this particular Arsenal side. After the creditable showing at Barcelona, the controlled performance to beat Everton 2-0, and the dominant 4-0 home win over Watford, a victory over West Ham would show that manager Arsène Wenger has aligned the players, structure, and style.

Indeed, Wenger has revealed that he’s loathe to mess with the current mix, telling his pre-match press conference that

I’m always reluctant to change what works. [It is] down to the confidence gained from our last two games. Team play has improved in those games and our game is based on mobility, speed and technique. We have found a good balance in our game.

Critical in this discovery has been the work of Mohammed Elneny in midfield. The newest Arsenal player, the Egyptian has enhanced the flow of the attack while supporting the defense. He completed 122 passes against Watford, the highest number in the League this season, 36 of them to playmaker Mesut Özil, according to FourFourTwo StatsZone. That means that Elneny was able to move the ball efficiently and with regularity to the man Arsenal want to have it.

Despite their strong record, West Ham look vulnerable to the quick, effective passing and movement that Elneny, Danny Welbeck, and Alex Iwobi have brought to Arsenal’s starting lineup. The Irons’ defense was sloppy last week against Crystal Palace, and their fullbacks’ predilection for attack left central defenders Winston Reid and Angelo Ogbonna exposed.

Welbeck and Alexis can exploit those gaps, and Özil and Iwobi will find their teammates if they’re free.

This won’t be a simple task, because West Ham manager Slaven Bilic has no doubt recognized this threat and drilled his charges to limit it. He can also summon the memory of the Irons’ opening-day victory at the Emirates and inspire his team to repeat that performance for the home crowd.

So expect each team’s game plan to be similar to the ones that day, with Arsenal trying to bamboozle their opponents with quick passing and movement and West Ham trying to thwart those efforts. The outcome will rest on the execution.

Key Matchup

Mesut Özil against Cheikhou Kouyaté. Arsenal’s pass master hasn’t provided an assist in four league matches, during which Arsenal have scored 10 goals. To inch closer to the league record of 20, Özil will have to evade the attentions of Kouyaté, who received a reprieve when the FA rescinded the red card he received last week.

Where to Worry

This is perhaps the Premier League’s easiest scouting report: Don’t give West Ham free kicks anywhere near the Arsenal area. Dimitri Payet is a wizard with direct free kicks, having scored two stunning ones for West Ham and France in recent weeks. And we witnessed in the season opener the danger West Ham poses on free kicks sent into the box. One goal came in this scenario, while the second came after Arsenal failed to clear a free kick properly.

Match Verdict

A nervy affair in a tight, febrile atmosphere hinges on the first goal. If Arsenal can get ahead, West Ham will struggle in open play.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Alex Iwobi. The youngster has made a significant mark in his first two Premier League starts, providing the team’s second goal in both. He’ll have the opportunity to contribute again because West Ham’s right back, Michail Antonio, is a wide midfielder by trade and therefore doesn’t always defend diligently.

West Ham. Mark Noble. It might seem odd to emphasize the workmanlike West Ham midfielder when Payet is capable of such sumptuous free kicks, but Noble has the responsibility to hold down the midfield. If he and Kouyaté can keep Arsenal’s attack from flowing through that area, they’ll give their  team the advantage.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Watford: Can We Kick It?

Arsenal return to action on Saturday against Watford with no margin of error to achieve the team’s top performance objective, the Premier League title.

To have any hope of overtaking leaders Leicester City and second place Tottenham, the Gunners must win all of their remaining eight matches. They would  then finish the season with nine consecutive wins, commencing with the impressive victory at Everton two weeks ago.

It’s an unlikely proposition, but consider this: Arsenal are actually four points better off than they were from parallel fixtures in the 2014-2015 season. If they repeat their results against their last eight opponents – all victories last season – they’ll finish with 79 points, versus 75 last season.

The players seem to understand the task and the stakes. Left back Nacho Monreal remarked to the official website this week:

We’re aware that we don’t just depend on ourselves - that’s obvious. Right now we’re in third place, so I think the only objective we need to set for ourselves is winning the eight matches we have left, and then what will be will be. It’s not just down to us. Even if we do win all eight games, that doesn’t mean we’ll be champions, but what does depend on us is winning those eight games.

How the Gunners arrived at this position is well analyzed territory. Among the many reviews, playmaker and likely Player of the Year Mesut Özil’s take, delivered to the German website Spox.com this week, was particularly interesting. He said: 

Considering the season, we have to admit that we have botched it. We’ve not brought out against the smaller teams what we actually can. That will carry an immediate penalty in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we still have all the possibilities. We have to watch for Leicester and Tottenham to slip up and then be there.

There’s a chance to right that mistake, at least partly, on Saturday against Watford.

Not only are the Hornets the type of team Arsenal have dominated in seasons past, one in the bottom half of the league table, but they’re the team that ousted Arsenal from the FA Cup just three weeks ago. The Gunners should therefore have ample motivation on Saturday.

Monreal acknowledged this, saying, “We know it’s going to be difficult against Watford because we only played them recently, and they knocked us out of the FA Cup. But we’re hungry for revenge.”

If Arsenal can channel that spirit and execute a plan similar to the one against Everton, the performance could be eye-catching. In particular, the energetic and synchronized pressure applied by Danny Welbeck, Alexis Sanchez, and Alex Iwobi can disturb Watford’s defenders and midfielders and prevent them from launching long balls to holdup man Troy Deeney.

Watford are also susceptible to quick ball movement on the flanks and in the channels between their central and wider players – the kind of activity that led to Danny Welbeck’s opening goal against Everton. They’d prefer to coax Arsenal to build up play methodically through the middle or to lob in hopeful crosses.

Not allowing Watford to dictate these terms should give Arsenal a strong chance of winning its first home match since the famous victory over Leicester City in mid-February. That’s a necessity for the Gunners to finish the season strong.

Key Matchup

Alexis’s switch to the right side of Arsenal’s attack has enhanced his contributions of late. Against a mentally and physically roaming left back, as Everton’s Leighton Baines was on the day, Alexis can be devastating. He doesn’t seem as predictable on the right as he was on the left, and Watford’s left back Nathan Aké appears to be a promising target.

Where to Worry

Watford’s main threat lies in the old-school holdup play of Troy Deeney. Both the goals the Hornets scored in the FA Cup quarterfinal win resulted from Deeney’s interventions in the Arsenal penalty area. Arsenal’s central defenders and deep-lying midfielders will need to harass Deeney and minimize the service to him.

Match Verdict

This will be a telling contest for Arsenal. An energetic performance and positive result will maintain the remote hope of a title miracle and strengthen the hold on a Champions League spot, while a lackluster one will render the final seven games mundane. The thinking here is that Arsenal can summon the energy and quality to defeat Watford and start the run-in with a surge.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. The front man has energized Arsenal’s attack and has delivered the end product, with three goals in five league matches since his return from injury. Welbeck’s speed and savvy could unnerve Watford’s rather stationary central defense.

Watford. Troy Deeney. When Watford succeed offensively, the play has flowed through their big man up front. He’s strong, persistent, and clever and has played a role in 15 of the Hornets’ 28 league goals.

Match Preview, Tottenham v Arsenal: The Vermaelen Moment?

Since the trip to Liverpool in mid-January, our match previews have been exhorting Arsenal to stand and deliver. To stake a claim to the Premier League title.

It’s no revelation that they haven’t done so. Eight points from seven matches is the proof.

Now, the Gunners’ visit to the most threatening Tottenham side in half a century carries some major implications. Those include losing a third consecutive league match for only the fourth time in manager Arsène Wenger’s 20-year tenure, falling nine points behind leaders Leicester City with only nine matches to play, casting serious doubt on another St. Totteringham’s Day due to a six-point deficit, and raising the risk of finishing below the Champions League positions.

Given these massive stakes and the toothless performances produced by the team recently, the question arises—Does Wenger see this as another Vermaelen moment? A point in the season that necessitates a radical move?

You’ll recall that after a 2-1 defeat in the March 2013 North London Derby left Arsenal 10 points adrift of the rivals, Wenger benched club captain Thomas Vermaelan and goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny and rode the new central defensive partnership of Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker to eight wins and two draws in the season’s final 10 matches. That run, during which the Gunners gave up just five goals, allowed them to pip Spurs for third place and that season’s last Champions League spot.

A similar shakeup seems needed to push this team to a strong finish. Even that might not be enough to grab the league title, but it could aid Arsenal’s efforts to win a third straight FA Cup and to quell a supporter revolt.

Wenger can consider several options. As was the case when midfielders Santi Cazorla and Francis Coquelin were injured in the fall, the manager could change the formation and work different personnel into the mix.

Because the midfield hasn’t seemed coherent in Cazorla’s absence and because Tottenham may be the best English team at exploiting that particular weakness, Wenger could switch to a 4-3-3 with Coquelin, Aaron Ramsey, and Mohammed Elneny offering physicality, energy, and better flow in the midfield. An even more extreme solution, explored by Dave Seagar in “The New Formation to Best Use Our Fit Players, Re-energize Alexis, and Beat Spurs,” would be a 4-3-1-2 with the midfield just described and the striker pairing of Danny Welbeck and Alexis Sanchez.

That such overhauls seem like reasonable responses shows the extent of Arsenal’s struggles.

There’s also the option of adjusting the personnel within the current framework. This is the choice Wenger made after the Coquelin and Cazorla injuries, an approach that proved neither optimal nor fatal through November and December.

With the players available now, a similar lineup adjustment seems less problematic. Elneny could come into the midfield beside Coquelin in the 4-2-3-1, helping to break pressure with his canny movement and clean passing. Ramsey could move forward and right, whence he served the midfield and attack well in the fall. Indeed, that deployment, with Olivier Giroud or Danny Welbeck as the lone striker, looks closest to the one that appeared so strong in October.

It would be a bit harsh for Joel Campbell, who was Arsenal’s brightest player in the midweek loss to Swansea, but he’ll see action either Saturday or Tuesday in the FA Cup replay at Hull City.

Whichever selections Wenger makes, his charges will face a stern test. Tottenham are energetic, physical, and well-drilled. They too lost on Wednesday, but that was a dip in an otherwise impressive run of results. They might be susceptible to being pressed themselves and have shown some weakness defending set pieces—cue Mesut Özil and Danny Welbeck on the latter. Otherwise, they seem designed to overwhelm Arsenal in its current state.

And yet, these matches aren’t played in theory, on keyboards, or on lifelike video games. As long as that’s the case, possibilities abound until the final whistle blows.

Key Matchup

Francis Coquelin against Delli Alli. As Adrian Clarke observed on the club’s weekly podcast, the confrontation of the teams’ energetic youngsters may determine the shape of the match. Alli is the trigger of the Spurs press whose quickness forces opposition midfielders into hasty decisions. He latches onto turnovers and launches Tottenham’s attack.

Coquelin will certainly need technical assistance breaking that Alli-led line of pressure, but he should have no problem in the physical battle. The Frenchman gives as good as he gets and has shown signs of strengthening form against Manchester United and Swansea.

Where to Worry

Honestly, the signs from Arsenal’s recent performances are not encouraging. Goals have been lacking, the midfield has been disjointed going forward and retreating, experienced defenders have made poor decisions. The savior, goalkeeper Petr Cech, has come up lame, so David Ospina will have to keep Spurs out.

Match Verdict

Spurs apply an uncomfortable amount of pressure for 70 minutes and hope that pays off in a lead that they can ride the final 20 minutes. Arsenal go back to basics, show some professional pride, and produce a disciplined performance. The match turns on a set piece or the referee’s decision.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. He starts on the right or leads the line. His speed, physicality, desire to make up for lost time, and growing confidence in front of goal could make the day extremely difficult for Tottenham’s defenders, who, though organized, can’t match Welbeck’s athleticism.

Manchester United. Christian Eriksen. The Dane creates from the flanks for Spurs and is a crafty deliverer of set pieces. Arsenal’s midfielders need to track his movements, and defenders can’t give away silly free kicks to him.

Arsenal's Problems Aren't Mine

If you’ve read any of my writing on Arsenal, you’ll have gathered that I approach the subject with an analytical eye and attempt to offer a reasoned perspective. This suits my demeanor and I hope makes my efforts distinctive, if probably not unique.

This piece will be a departure from that style and outlook.

The context is, of course, the team’s three consecutive losses and its apparent squandering of a reasonable shot at the Premier League title. But the focus isn’t on the team’s performances, its needs in the short- and long-term, or manager Arsène Wenger’s competence. There are myriad voices discussing those matters, few in edifying ways.

Instead, I want to address—feel compelled to address—two characteristics of the Arsenal supporter mindset, aggrievement and resignation, and the unhealthy and pointless application of these characteristics.

Let go

Let’s establish the main premise first. We supporters have virtually no control over what happens at the club. There is some evidence to suggest that match-day fans can, through positive reinforcement, strengthen players’ states of mind. Their psychological advantages, which escape those who haven’t excelled in elite athletic competition, are strengthened when they perceive they’re being supported.

Other than that, we are powerless. The Arsenal board does not consider us when it’s taking action, Wenger and his staff don’t factor our perspectives into their planning, and the players don’t ultimately feel responsibility or anything toward us.

Now, I understand that there’s a direct line between this feeling of powerlessness and outrage. Any observer of politics, particularly US politics, has to acknowledge that. But I think we have a choice individually and collectively over how we handle the lack of control. Actually, our reaction is the only thing we can control.

It helps to recognize that when a group of 20- to 33-year-old men fail in an athletic endeavor, that’s no reflection on my worth as a person. Maybe they didn’t provide the uplifting distraction we were looking for. Maybe we’re disappointed because we expect better when we invest our time, money, and emotional energy.

Does that mean my family doesn’t value me, my associates don’t respect my contributions, my friends no longer enjoy my company, my other pastimes don’t fulfill me? No.

So outrage, particularly in the form of abuse, is twisted and pointless. It’s also boring.

The quest for fun

Second premise: Sport is entertainment.

I know many people are making a statement of cultural affinity when they support a team. So the connection is a deep psychological one that may seem impossible to separate from who we are.

I also acknowledge that entertainment means different things to different people. I personally prioritize enjoyment and inquiry in my entertainment, which means I prefer pastimes that I learn something from, laugh at, or feel taken away from myself in some way.

Others see entertainment as a way to relieve their frustrations, often connected to an impulse to voice criticisms. There’s also a belief among some that they can criticize sources of entertainment and seem smart or clever, especially in the era of social media.

We’re free, of course, to choose types of entertainment and to react in a way that matters for us individually. The problem is that some of those reactions, distributed and intensified by the Internet, reduce the value for others. That provokes another choice—keep paying attention or seek the benefits somewhere else.

It’s really a question of how we want to spend our limited time on this earth, a choice which might, I believe, extend our time here. We can wallow in the negativity, think we’re smarter because we notice the problems, and resign ourselves to the worst-case scenario.

Embrace the uncertainty

This resignation, in the form or low-stakes gallows humor, is a popular choice in the British Isles. Stiff upper lip and all that. I understand how it helps cushion the blows when unwelcome events, such as losses by one’s preferred sports team, occur. I also understand how resignation and its interpretive offshoots predictability and inevitability help brains process random, complex, and uncontrollable events.

Indeed, all of the post facto observations about predictability are just methods of self-soothing. “We saw that coming.” If you saw the worst coming and you still paid attention, you are sick.

Or maybe outcomes of human endeavors, including sporting competition, aren’t predictable at all. Although chances of specific results are better or worse based on correlations in the past, each event is new and could conclude in many ways.

That is why more and more people watch the Premier League, for example, because despite the correlation between expenditures on salaries and transfer fees and final position in the league table, the end is not at all predictable. We can’t foresee the champion, and we certainly can’t know the winner of each individual match.

If your method of coping with this uncertainty is to identify the most uncomfortable outcome and make quips about it, okay. I guess that can be entertaining and funny in small doses. As a persistent tone and unyielding point of view, though, it’s tiresome.

What’s the healthy response? Well, I’d say maintaining perspective, respecting others’ decisions if ignoring their tedious expressions, and focusing our energies on things we can control.

My hope is that the Arsenal first team will respond to its recent setbacks in this mature way. If they can't, I'll recognize that it's no reflection on me personally.

Match Preview, Manchester United v Arsenal: Day One of Ten That Define

Arsenal’s visit to Manchester United on Sunday commences a defining ten-day stretch.

Between February 28^th and March 8^th, the Gunners will play four matches. Their three Premier League encounters with Manchester United, Swansea, and Tottenham are separated by just three days each. Then, three days after the North London Derby, Arsenal travel to Hull for a replay of the FA Cup 5^th Round match, seeking to advance toward an historic third consecutive trophy in that competition.

The league matches—two at the grounds of other top-five sides--present a challenge that a title-winning team must rise to. As manager Arsène Wenger said, “It is the key period. We work the whole season for this period and that’s where you’re really tested, but it’s where you have an opportunity to show your quality as well. On that front, that is the most interesting period of the season.”

So far, Arsenal have fared well against direct rivals for the league crown, having won four, drawn one, and lost none against Leicester City, Tottenham, Manchester City, and Manchester United.

Four of those five matches were at home, however, including the 3-0 thrashing of Sunday’s opponents in early October. How instructive will we find that contest in our efforts to understand what might happen on Sunday?

In brief, Arsenal had the right tactical plan that day and the personnel to execute it; Manchester United did not. (See Arsenal’s Tactical Triumph for more detail.)

But the personnel will definitely change on Sunday, and the plans will probably shift, too. Both teams have suffered injuries to vital players. For Arsenal, the most telling loss has been that of Santi Cazorla, the architect of the October victory. His ability to dance out of the visitors’ midfield pressure in the first half opened the attacking space that Arsenal exploited.

In response to Cazorla’s absence, Manchester United manager Louis van Gaal may again decide to press Arsenal’s midfield. That’s a tactic most opponents have tried since Cazorla’s November knee injury, and Arsenal have often sputtered as a result. Van Gaal does have two players, Morgan Schneiderlin and Ander Herrera, who can harry the Arsenal midfield.

The problem is that pressing requires synchronization, persistence, conditioning, and a strong last line of defense. The Red Devils have not had a settled midfield since the turn of the year, raising questions about both their ability to coordinate the press and their capacity to stick to the physical and mental task. Furthermore, due to injuries across the back four, the United defense lacks stability.

Given those factors, van Gaal may opt for the risk-averse, possession game that has characterized much of his team’s play this season. With Michael Carrick and Juan Mata, United do have the players to implement this approach. How aggressively and effectively Arsenal disrupt the hosts’ efforts in this respect will influence the dynamics of the match.

Its outcome, though, will probably be decided up front. Manchester United lack a proven match-winner because Wayne Rooney is out with injury; Arsenal don’t have a player in any kind of goal-scoring form. Indeed, the Gunners have been held scoreless in five of their last eight matches. So both teams could stumble at the critical moment in front of goal.

If Arsenal can convert just one of the many chances it might get—as the league’s most creative team in terms of clear goal-scoring opportunities—that could do the trick. And at the outset of this critical sequence of matches, a positive result is all that matters.

Key Matchup

Aaron Ramsey against the Manchester United midfield. Restored to his preferred position in central midfield, Arsenal’s Welshman has performed creditably. Perhaps those performances haven’t met expectations, but were those expectations reasonable? As Tim Stillman observes in his Arseblog column “Sacrificial Ram,” Ramsey has been doing three jobs at once, supporting his deep-lying midfield partner, making up for the absence of a ball-control specialist on the right, and sparking Arsenal’s preference for attacking to the left.

Ramsey will face skillful and intelligent opponents in Scheiderlin and Herrera. The extent to which he can slip their attentions and initiate Arsenal’s attacks will shape Arsenal’s threat overall.

Where to Worry

Arsenal’s defensive focus flagged on just a few occasions against Barcelona on Tuesday evening. Two of those lapses proved fatal. The injury-riddled Manchester United don’t possess the proven attacking threats of Barcelona—no team does, in truth—but at this level, with these stakes, the slightest mental error can be a killer. Wenger and his team will need to turn all their attentions to the task at hand on Sunday.

Match Verdict

Most of the accomplished talent on display will be in the midfield, with Manchester United’s Schneiderlin, Herrera, and Juan Mata facing off against Ramsey, Mesut Özil, and Alexis Sanchez. Those two trios will be at the center of the action, but this one comes down to the two defenses. Arsenal’s, anchored by the impressive Petr Cech, has been more stable than Manchester United’s, who may have to cope without its standout keeper David de Gea.

Despite the Gunners’ recent goal-scoring struggles, their chances of getting an unmissable opportunity against Manchester United’s makeshift back line seem strong.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. The ex-Manchester United man has looked lively and dangerous since his return from injury. He’s shown he can rise to the occasion—both here in last season’s FA Cup quarterfinal and in his match-winning substitute appearance against Leicester City two weeks ago. If he’s physically ready, he merits a start, and that can’t be a tantalizing prospect for these opposition defenders.

Manchester United. Juan Mata. The Spaniard now pulls the strings for Manchester United, a role that suits him. He can also find dangerous spaces in the opponents’ penalty area, avoiding the attentions of defenders and midfielders. Arsenal’s Francis Coquelin will need to be especially diligent tracking Mata’s movements.

Arsenal 2 Leicester City 1: Three Things We Learned

For those justly annoyed over football's accelerating mutation into a mode of corporate consumption. For those unjustly condemnatory of a longtime, brilliant steward of Arsenal Football Club. For those weary of winter midnights and pre-dawns across the globe to witness our dreams for 20- to 35-year-old men meet the harsh realities of elite competition.

I give you Danny Welbeck in the 95th minute against Leicester City.

When the English forward returned from his 10-month injury absence and headed home to give Arsenal a critical 2-1 win over league leaders Leicester City, he joined us all in the euphoria. The joy we shared is the fundamental reason we follow sport.

Let's all pause and recognize that this Arsenal team has provided us with four such occasions already this season, in four different fashions, really: The first-half swamping of Manchester United, the brilliant rearguard action against world powers Bayern Munich, the makeshift inspiration against Manchester City, and now this, a dramatic infusion of faith.

Gratitude for those moments should be the primary thing we learned from this match. From an analytical perspective, here are three others.

Arsène Wenger's gambling instincts can still come up aces

The Arsenal manager showed he hasn't lost his taste for a bet. Instead of establishing a game plan to negate Leicester City's counterattacking strengths, Wenger sent his team out to do what they do best. The Gunners moved the ball quickly, attacked the Leicester defenders at speed, and kept plugging even when the breaks went against them.

This approach brought the rewards.

Arsenal had the better of the play in the first half, particularly in the opening 20 minutes, when the objective was obviously to score and force Leicester to spend the bulk of the match outside its defensive comfort zone. The goal didn't come, as often it doesn't, and Leicester got the break it needed when Jamie Vardy conned referee Martin Atkinson into awarding a penalty, which he dispatched.

Rather than sulk over this injustice, Arsenal started the second half assertively. The key, it turned out, was Alexis taking on Leicester right back Danny Simpson. Simpson's regular fouling of the Arsenal dynamo eventually led to a yellow card for a body block and a second yellow and expulsion for tugging back Olivier Giroud.

This handed the initiative squarely to the Gunners. Wenger took it and placed an even more substantial wager on his attackers. He replaced deep-lying midfielder Francis Coquelin with the dangerous but lately powerless Theo Walcott, who provided the cool finish that leveled the score on 70 minutes.

Then, knowing his team needed to win to legitimate their case as contenders for the league title, he sent on yet another forward, Welbeck, a player whose only action since last April consisted of 45 minutes with the Arsenal youth team.

As a result, Arsenal were fielding a goalkeeper, four defenders, one central midfielder with attacking instincts (Aaron Ramsey), playmaker Mesut Özil, and four forwards. Against a team deadly on the counterattack, even with 10 men.

Jackpot.

Arsenal can achieve top intensity

Leicester reached the Premier League summit with a combination of persistent intensity and clinical finishing. Arsenal rose to the challenge, matching the league leaders' energy and desire.

These are impossible qualities to quantify and therefore overused by those who review matches. Mentions of "desire" and "mental strength"--or the lack thereof--usually signal laziness, ignorance, or at least the absence of analysis.

In this case, though, the manager had a supportable point when he said:

We put the intensity in from the first to the last minute. It was as well a mental test for us, because to find yourself down 1-0 at half-time to a team who defends so well, you need to keep going in your head. And we came back in the second half with relentless energy. And we took as well all the risks to win it. We knew a draw was not good enough. In the end it paid off, down to the mental desire of the team to give absolutely everything to win it.

The Gunners did not let up, producing nine of their 24 shots in the last 10 minutes of the match. The last one was the best.

Olivier Giroud's fortitude founded this performance

Arsenal's overall persistence and desire took form in center forward Olivier Giroud. The Frenchman, sometimes too demonstrative in his expressions of discomfort, more than held his own in the physical battle against Leicester's hulking center halves Robert Huth and Wes Morgan.

Giroud won 13 of 20 aerial duels, according to FourFourTwo's StatsZone app, and created four chances for teammates. One of those was the strong but cultured knockdown that invited Walcott to slot home the equalizing goal.

Giroud also made two tackles, including an eye-catching one as Arsenal increased the pressure after Walcott's goal. He chased down Leicester's tireless midfielder N'Golo Kanté well into the Arsenal half and nipped the ball to Alexis.

This was one example of Giroud's willingness to leave his predictable post; at other times, he ran left and unsettled Leicester's defense. Indeed, that was where Giroud spun Simpson and drew the decisive second yellow on Leicester's right back.

Extra time

A word here for Nacho Monreal. Arsenal's outstanding left back fell victim to Vardy's machinations for the penalty. Based on his overall performance, though, he deserved to be on the winning side.

The Spaniard shut down Leicester's dangerous Riyad Mahrez for the second game, this time without the concerted assistance of midfielder Santi Cazorla. He succeeded on five of seven tackles, made nine ball recoveries, and won all three of his headers.

Monreal was also Arsenal's second most prolific passer on the day, completing 72 of 80 (90 percent). His combination with Alexis, the second most frequent for the team, and his interplay with Ramsey, tied for the third most frequent combination, suggest the team may have found a new route from defense to attack.

How Arsenal Can Beat Leicester

When league leaders Leicester City visit the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, the onus will be on Arsenal to accomplish what only one other Premier League team has done this season: Defeat the formidable Foxes.

Leicester’s story is now well-known. Nearly relegated into the Championship last season, the Midlands team hired veteran manager Claudio Ranieri and have rampaged through the league campaign to date. Thanks partly to a relatively clean injury record—Leicester have lost fewer player weeks to injury than all but one other team—and to a style that suits their personnel perfectly, the Foxes sit five points clear of Tottenham and Arsenal.

They visit London just after an impressive 3-1 away victory at Manchester City, and for Arsenal to reduce the five-point difference in the standings and energize their own push for the title, the Gunners must find a way to stop the Leicester juggernaut.

When the two sides met in September, Arsenal produced a swashbuckling 5-2 win. But a game plan that relies on outracing Leicester might not be wise here. For one thing, Arsenal haven’t been efficient recently, having failed to score in three straight league matches before notching two first-half goals against Bournemouth on Saturday. Leicester are also less generous than they were in September, with five clean sheets in their last seven matches.

There are several other approaches that could position Arsenal for victory on Sunday. Some are restrained; others, radical. This article examines some of the options available to manager Arsène Wenger and his team.

Let Leicester have the ball

Leicester have shown a preference for playing without possession. In 25 league matches, the Foxes have had more of the ball—that is, made more passes—than their opponents only twice, according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app. One of those occasions was against a Bournemouth side reduced to 10 men by a 57th-minute red card.

This tactical choice plays to Leicester’s strengths. The Foxes have a skillful distributor in N’Golo Kanté, quick attackers in Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez, and Shinji Okazaki, and a killer instinct in front of goal. That last attribute has given the team the best results in converting shots within the penalty area. (See 7AM Kickoff’s "Leicester are winning the league through superior finishing” for an analysis.)

One way, then, for Arsenal to mitigate Leicester’s strengths would be to relinquish possession to the visitors. This would need to happen in a controlled way with Arsenal’s players organized, coordinated, and positioned behind the ball.

Although such an approach would mark a departure from Arsenal’s overall playing philosophy, there’s considerable precedent for it. In important matches against accomplished opponents, such as Bayern Munich and Manchester City, the Gunners have sacrificed possession for the sake of controlling dangerous spaces.

Granted, Bayern and Man City are possession-based sides and were more than happy to take Arsenal up on the offer. It’s not clear how a possession-averse side like Leicester would respond.

Still, last season Arsenal went to West Ham, managed by defense-and-long-ball aficionado Sam Allardyce, compiled just 42 percent possession, and came away 2-1 winners. A similar approach and result would be welcome on Sunday.

Make Leicester’s defense move

In September, Arsenal succeeded in unsettling Leicester’s back line. They’re less susceptible to speed now because they’re less adventurous and better protected by Kanté and Danny Drinkwater. That certainly showed in last week’s win over Man City, when Sergio Aguero, David Silva, and Raheem Sterling failed to make a telling mark despite their quickness.

But, as Adrian Clarke points out on the Official Arsenal Weekly Podcast, Leicester center backs Wes Morgan and Robert Huth are not the fleetest afoot and might not cover a midfield run from Aaron Ramsey or Mesut Özil if Arsenal center forward Olivier Giroud can occupy both of them for an instant.

Similarly, the Leicester fullbacks, Danny Simpson and Christian Fuchs, are not all that fast by the standards of the Premier League. They rely on sound positioning and organization to control wide attackers. Counterattacks at speed by Alexis Sanchez and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain or the kind of direct play Tim Stillman described on this week's Arsenal Vision Post-Match Podcast could stake Arsenal to an advantage.

Double up Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez is the Foxes’ creative genius and, with Vardy, their one-two goal combination. Keeping him quiet will go a long way, though not all the way, to squelching Leicester’s attack.

Arsenal largely succeeded at this task in September by skillful defending on its left. Fullback Nacho Monreal had an excellent day and received consistent support from midfielder Santi Cazorla. The two didn’t allow Mahrez to surge into attack, and they limited the space through which he could dribble. Mahrez began to work the other flank in response.

Cazorla’s absence complicates Arsenal’s effort to reprise this performance. Ramsey is capable of the diligence required, as he showed against Bournemouth last weekend and in prior seasons as Mikel Arteta’s midfield partner. But his work will have to be in synch with Monreal’s and with that of either Mathieu Flamini or Francis Coquelin. Flamini, who started alongside Cazorla at Leicester, hasn’t developed the most seamless partnership with Ramsey, while Coquelin has hardly played with the Welshman.

Defending against the threat posed by Mahrez will therefore be a real test.

Match Leicester’s formation

This would be a radical and unlikely choice.

Leicester’s setup is described as a 4-4-2, but it’s more of a 4-4-1-1 or even a 4-5-1. Okazaki plays behind Vardy and serves as both a second striker and as an additional midfielder. His energy and ability in the tackle permit him to execute these dual roles.

Arsenal could send out a mirror image of this formation, which would give the Gunners more security to relinquish the ball (as in the option above). It would also put Arsenal players in better position to pressure Leicester’s long passes from midfield.

Those are both reasonable objectives, but committing to this structure would involve several major personnel changes. First, to match not only Leicester’s formation but its energy, Arsenal would most likely position Ramsey further forward. He’d be the best equipped to execute the Okazaki role, as he does for the Welsh national side.

With Ramsey in a more advanced role than normal, Arsenal would need a different partnership in central midfield, some mix of Flamini, Coquelin, and Mohammed Elneny. Playmaker Mesut Özil would shift to one flank with Alexis on the other. Giroud could still lead the line in this setup, but the attack would be more static than is customary.

I don’t think we’ll see this structure or lineup on Sunday. It would take Arsenal away from its strengths, disrupt the flow, and dislodge the team’s best player this season. Wenger isn’t likely to take such a gamble in this crucial encounter.

There are other, more tested, ways of making the most of Arsenal’s advantages while minimizing Leicester’s considerable threats. No doubt as Sunday’s critical encounter approaches, Wenger and his staff are weighing these options with more experience and wisdom than Arsenal bloggers and twitterati would.

Bournemouth 0 Arsenal 2: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal won its first league match in five outings, defeating Bournemouth 2-0 at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday.

First-class goals by Mesut Özil and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, separated by just 90 seconds of the first half, proved enough for the Gunners to secure their first away league victory in almost two months and to position them for a push at leaders Leicester City when the two sides meet next weekend.

Here are three things we learned from the match.

Mesut Özil brings calm

Knowing they needed a win to keep pace with Leicester and recognizing they hadn’t delivered one since downing Newcastle on January 2, the Gunners were edgy at the start. Their passes seemed rushed, their touches were a bit off, and their one look at goal, via Alexis Sanchez, lacked quality.

Özil calmed everyone down.

His finish ended a passage of play that displayed several Arsenal players’ strengths. Aaron Ramsey, afforded time and space about 30 yards from the Bournemouth goal, looked to his right, then lobbed a pass toward the back post. There, both Alexis and Olivier Giroud attacked the ball, Giroud winning it and heading just outside the six-yard box.

Özil ran onto the ball and, as it bounced, clobbered it with his right foot into the roof of the net. An absolute no-doubter that gave Arsenal the comfort of an early lead.

In addition to that goal, Özil settled the play with his work on the ball throughout the match. He completed 52 of 56 passes (93 percent), according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app, including 22 of 25 in Arsenal’s attacking third. He also made 11 ball recoveries, tied for most on the team with Ramsey.

Perhaps Özil recognized the need for control and took fewer risks. That did affect his creative output a bit, as he created just two chances for teammates, a low number by his standards.

But his influence was critical and solidified his status as Arsenal’s most important player so far this season.

Aesthetics don’t matter at this point

Arsenal needed to earn points in the league table, not style points, from this match. That’s exactly what they did.

Conditions didn’t favor an eye-catching display anyway. Bournemouth were energetic hosts with experience knocking off top teams on the South Coast. The Dean Court pitch was choppy, and a strong wind swirled around the small ground. Late on, a squall blew in and worsened the elements.

These factors did have an effect. Arsenal’s defenders had trouble judging long balls, and iffy moments with the wind from Gabriel and Nacho Monreal led to threats on Petr Cech’s goal. The Czech keeper had an uncharacteristically bad day distributing the ball, as the wind caught several of his throws and goal kicks and took them out of play.

Arsenal played through these potential distractions and kept focus. When the defense lapsed, Cech was ready to make several crucial saves. In other instances, his teammates threw themselves in front of Bournemouth shots, making six blocks, or chasing down their opponents, as fullback Hector Bellerin did when Gabriel couldn’t deal with the long ball to Bournemouth’s Marc Pugh.

It was far from a scintillating display, but in context it was precisely the effort and execution required.

Arsenal’s center backs are still adjusting

Laurent Koscielny, captain on the day, and Gabriel, preferred again to Per Mertesacker, were strong in some respects and less so in others. They did the basic job of central defenders, keeping the opposition strikers quiet, very well. Former Gunner Benik Afobe, leading the Bournemouth line, did not get off a shot. Koscielny, in particular, ably marshaled Afobe and was well positioned to deal with other threats.

Where he and Gabriel struggled was in the effort to move Arsenal from defense into attack. It’s been observed in many places that Santi Cazorla’s absence in midfield has affected the Gunners’ transitions, and here without Mertesacker’s knack for a pass from the back, Arsenal again sputtered.

One passage of play in the first half showed the struggles clearly. Gabriel retrieved the ball and came under a bit of pressure from Bournemouth. He sought a way out via Mathieu Flamini in midfield, but Flamini just passed the ball right back to Gabriel. Gabriel then tried right back Hector Bellerin, who could do little more than find Flamini in the center of midfield again. Flamini went back to Gabriel, who had no choice but to lump it up field and out of play.

Sequences such as this have been all too common in recent weeks. There are signs that Arsenal are looking for other ways forward, such as from Monreal to Alexis, which was the team’s second highest passing combination on Sunday, or, thanks to Alexis’s return, more energetic efforts to win the ball closer to the opposition’s goal. Arsenal will need to explore these avenues as opponents continue their clear approach of putting pressure on the Gunners’ center backs and central midfielders.

Extra time

Oxlade-Chamberlain showed a flash of genuine quality with his goal. It might not have been as eye-catching as Özil’s, but his strike was very difficult. His first touch of Ramsey’s pass got him away from the defender, but his angle on goal was narrowing quickly as he ran slightly away from goal. He released his shot at the last possible moment, created decent power, and placed it precisely.

This was evidence of Oxlade-Chamberlain’s athleticism, and we’re all hoping the confidence he gains from scoring his first league goal since September 2014 will enhance his contributions to Arsenal’s title challenge.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Southampton: Wake up in February Makeup

When Arsenal welcome Southampton on Tuesday to start the month of February, the Gunners can hope to ride two trends.

During manager Arsène Wenger’s tenure, his teams have displayed a tendency to surge in the final months of league campaigns. As Amy Lawrence explains in “Arsenal Could Be Blown All the Way to Glory by Trademark Second Wind,” Wenger’s title-winning sides went on long successful runs, sometimes overhauling league leaders, in the second halves of seasons.

Indeed, in the past 10 seasons, only twice have Arsenal have dropped spots in the table during a season’s second half--in 2013-14, when the Gunners fell from first to fourth, and in 2007-08, when they dropped from first to third. On three occasions, Arsenal maintained its league position, and five times the club moved up the table.

After 19 matches of the current season, having played each league opponent once, Arsenal were top of the league. A month later, they sit third, three points behind leaders Leicester City.

The midweek date with Southampton looks like the moment to commence the characteristic charge. A victory here would also follow Arsenal’s odd and arbitrary, on-again-off-again pattern of monthly results. The Gunners went unbeaten in the league in October, then won none of their three league matches in November. December brought four wins in five, followed by a January in which the only league victory (in four matches) came on the 2^nd of the month against Newcastle.

It’s also a potential watershed match because Southampton have posed Arsenal difficulty in recent years. There’s of course the 4-0 loss at Saint Mary’s on Boxing Day, following other lackluster showings on the South Coast. At home, Arsenal haven’t exactly overwhelmed the Saints, either, needing a late Alexis strike to see off the visitors last season and an 86^th-minute Olivier Giroud penalty to secure three points the season before.

Expect this to be another tight affair. After a shaky period, Southampton appear to have sorted out the defensive issues. The Saints have held Manchester United, West Bromwich Albion, and Watford scoreless in their last three league fixtures. Those performances—and the way they shut out Arsenal in December—will probably serve as the model for Tuesday’s game plan.

The difference this time out is that Southampton won’t be able to concentrate so much attention on Mesut Özil. In the previous fixture, Southampton’s Jordy Clasie man-marked Arsenal’s playmaker and creative hub, while defensive midfield partner Victor Wanyama controlled everything else.

The return of Alexis Sanchez, whose hamstring injury preventing him from playing in December, poses problems for Southampton’s approach. If the Saints focus too much on Özil, Alexis could find more room to drive at goal. He’ll also help Arsenal harry the opposition defenders, increasing the likelihood of turnovers that he and Özil can quickly turn into threats.

Arsenal executed a similar plan to perfection against Manchester United in early October. There’s evidence that Southampton’s defenders are just as susceptible to such aggressive pressing: Pressing sides Tottenham and Liverpool both overwhelmed the Saints on their home ground in December.

A resurgence of similar energy levels and renewed focus from Arsenal, fueled by the returns of Alexis and Francis Coquelin, would change the dynamic on Tuesday. More to the point, these improvements would bode well for Arsenal’s three other important league fixtures in February and for the 11 subsequent contests to close the season.

Key Matchup

Jordy Clasie and Victor Wanyama against Mesut Özil. Without dwelling on the result, the Arsenal players and coaching staff will have studied Southampton’s approach in December and noted the focus on Özil. The German playmaker will have devised ways to free himself or to use Southampton’s attention to provide more space and time to his teammates.

That’s a less complicated task in a home match than it is on the road, and teams that come to the Emirates planning to man-mark any member of the Arsenal midfield usually regret it. Making Southampton pay for that choice, should they make it, will be important for Arsenal on Tuesday.

Where to Worry

Southampton are dangerous with crosses, headers, and set pieces. They’re the league’s most prolific crossers, with 436 in 23 matches, they have headed in 10 goals to lead the league, and their 10 goals from non-penalty set pieces rank second. Arsenal’s center back pairing of Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny will need to be attentive to this threat, and goalkeeper Petr Cech will need to continue his outstanding command of his penalty area.

Match Verdict

Both these teams will put in maximum effort. Southampton have climbed to eighth position in the league and will try to advance further. Arsenal know the necessity of reasserting home dominance if their title challenge is to persist. A gritty battle in the midfield, decided by a moment of brilliance in the forward line, seems how this match is likely to unfold. In Alexis, Arsenal again have that difference maker in attack.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Francis Coquelin. The Frenchman returned to action after a two-month layoff in Saturday’s FA Cup win over Burnley. He wasn’t in top form, as you’d expect, but his awareness and effort helped Arsenal largely control the midfield. Coquelin will be important in the same respect on Tuesday, and his lateral work should reduce Southampton’s threat from crosses. His relatively untried partnership with Aaron Ramsey in the center of the park will also be worth watching.

Southampton. Charlie Austin. The former Queens Park Rangers front man enjoyed a Southampton debut to remember last weekend, scoring the game-winning goal at Old Trafford as a substitute. If manager Ronald Koeman is reluctant to use regular starter Graziano Pellè after his three-week injury absence, Austin could lead the line; or he could come off the bench and pose a legitimate threat. After all, he scored both times Arsenal faced QPR last season.

Arsenal 0 Chelsea 1: Three Things We Learned

A first-half red card induced by Chelsea’s Diego Costa and a goal by the Chelsea striker sent Arsenal to a 1-0 home defeat on Sunday.

With the loss, the Gunners dropped out of first place in the Premier League and now sit just two points ahead of fourth-placed Tottenham.

The incident in the 17^th minute, when Per Mertesacker found himself on the wrong side of Costa and tried a last-ditch tackle, obviously changed the dynamic of the match and rendered most analysis meaningless. Still, here are three things we learned from the encounter.

Arsenal paid for the risks of its high line

The potential of a disastrous defensive moment is real when Arsenal employ a high line. The coordination between Mertesacker and his partner Laurent Koscielny has to be perfect, and their teammates higher up the pitch must put pressure on the ball to prevent the easy pass. If either of those elements is missing, the opposition has an opportunity to break beyond the Gunners’ defense.

That’s what happened when Chelsea’s Willian lost Aaron Ramsey in midfield, saw Arsenal’s other midfielder Mathieu Flamini back off, and picked the pass to Costa as he ran off Mertesacker’s shoulder. Koscielny and Mertesacker stepped up a smidge in an effort to catch Chelsea’s striker offside, but that was the wrong decision, taken in a split-second with no room for error.

We’ve seen similar series of events in previous matches this season. At Swansea, Jonjo Shelvy pushed the ball through the midfield and connected with Bafetimbi Gomis, who skirted Mertesacker while Koscielny stepped up. Against Newcastle, Ayoze Perez captured an errant pass in midfield and found an open Georgino Wijnaldum. In both those cases, Arsenal keeper Petr Cech came to the rescue, and Arsenal went on to win.

Mertesacker’s challenge, Costa’s theatrical tumble, and referee Mark Clattenburg’s red card prevented Cech from having the opportunity to save the day again.

In matches that turn on such small margins and instantaneous individual decisions, the risks of the high line require better collective management.

No one should fault Arsenal players for their effort

Even reduced to ten men with Mertesacker’s expulsion, the Gunners looked livelier than their opponents. They amassed 47 percent possession, which is remarkable for a team suffering a numerical disadvantage for 70 minutes, fashioned six corners, and found themselves with decent looks at goal on several occasions.

The problem was that Chelsea’s defenders kept most of Arsenal’s activity in front of them. When one of Arsenal’s wide players got the ball in the attacking third, there were no credible targets for a cross into the penalty area.

So Arsenal’s fullbacks often carried the ball long distances, particularly Hector Bellerin, who was a frequent threat on the right. He succeeded in bypassing several Chelsea players on occasion but ran into resistance as he got nearer goal. From Arsenal’s left, Nacho Monreal found himself open in the penalty area late in the match but couldn’t create a shot.

All this attacking from the fullbacks left the Gunners open to counterattacks, and Chelsea did get into spaces that more clinical teams would have exploited for the killer blow. Some acknowledgement is due Koscielny and Gabriel, Mertesacker’s replacement, for their work managing these late Chelsea attacks, though the pair must share some responsibility for Costa’s goal.

Arsène Wenger does not shirk tough decisions

The Arsenal manager’s call to sacrifice center forward Olivier Giroud in order to introduce Gabriel sparked considerable debate. Would Arsenal have been better served with the target and ball control Giroud offers, rather than the speed provided by Theo Walcott?

It’s a reasonable question. Just as Wenger’s choice of Walcott over Giroud--made with much more information than we have--was a reasonable one.

Overall, the manager had to account for the three fourths of the match that remained after Mertesacker’s red card. He had to consider the fitness of the players, the likely approach of his opponents, and his team’s best chance to succeed.

Reports that Giroud had suffered an injury in training may have factored in the decision. If that injury would have forced Giroud off at some point anyway, it made sense to replace him early.

Let’s also remember that the match was scoreless at the time, making it more likely that Chelsea would push forward and leave themselves vulnerable to a counterattack. This dynamic would have worked to the strengths of Walcott, not Giroud. Wenger did not foresee that Chelsea would score so early and then, despite a man advantage, sit back and soak up Arsenal’s pressure. That pattern of play would have favored Giroud.

Extra Time

Normally I turn the sound off when I’m watching matches. I don’t find NBC’s commentators insightful or instructive, as a general rule. On Sunday, I wanted to get a sense of the atmosphere, so I didn’t mute the sound.

I wish I had.

The main reason was the insistence of analyst and ex-Chelsea man Graeme Le Saux that Mesut Özil’s “body language” was the giveaway to a poor performance by the German. Rather than examine the setup of the Arsenal team once reduced to ten men or explain how Chelsea were containing Arsenal’s creative players, Le Saux harped on the appearance or carriage of Özil.

This is armchair psychology masquerading as analysis and absolutely no help to understanding a match.

Match Preview, Stoke City v Arsenal: The Alexis Conundrum

Arsenal’s tests shift to England’s Northeast from its Northwest with Sunday’s visit to Stoke City. It’s a challenging fixture under any circumstances—Arsenal have just one win in seven Premier League matches there—and so soon after Wednesday’s grueling, frustrating draw at Liverpool, Stoke is a truly trying trip.

The good news is that the Gunners move on from disappointments much more quickly than their supporters do. We’ve seen recent evidence of this, when the 4-0 pasting at Southampton led not to a collapse as 2015 turned to 2016 but instead to three victories in short order.

And even if the legs remain weary, the prospect of Alexis Sanchez’s return is energizing. Although results have been solid in his absence (W7, D1, L1), Arsenal could certainly benefit from the Chilean’s infectious verve. A midwinter match at Stoke City seems like the perfect occasion.

In this occasion, as in all, perfection may elude us. Manager Arsène Wenger would be taking a major risk by immediately calling on Alexis. A re-aggravation of his hamstring injury, a problem related to compensating for his original injury, or consequences of Stoke’s infamously physical play could restrict last season’s star man from contributing substantially to Arsenal’s Premier League title challenge.

Wenger is well aware of the difficulty of this decision. He told his pre-match press conference:

Alexis, I would say has a 60:40 chance to be available and be back in the squad. He has two decisive days - Friday and Saturday. He is fit, he has worked very hard, and the decision we have to take is whether to take a gamble or not on his injury.

One of the manager’s clear considerations is the threat Alexis adds to Arsenal’s attack. Without him, opponents can focus on playmaker Mesut Özil, even man-marking the league’s top provider out of the game, as Southampton did. Alexis’s unpredictability, quickness, and determination will punish a team structured to stop anyone else.

Equally important is Alexis’s contribution to the Gunners’ efforts without the ball. He’s the key to Arsenal’s press in forward areas and forms an effective partnership with left back Nacho Monreal when opponents advance. Alexis can also help defend the middle of the pitch, where the midfielders Aaron Ramsey and Mathieu Flamini have shown they’d benefit from additional cover.

Despite the myriad ways in which Alexis strengthens this Arsenal team, the feeling here is that the manager will deploy him as a substitute. Wenger fancies a gamble, but perhaps not now with a prize asset he needs for as many of the remaining 16 league matches as possible.

Key Matchup

Joel Campbell against Erik Pieters. Arsenal’s once forsaken Costa Rican has risen to impressive form of late, creating danger with timely runs and clever passes from the right of Arsenal’s attack. He’ll need all his decisiveness and skill to outmaneuver Stoke’s well-drilled defensive unit and experienced and physical left back.

Where to Worry

Stoke have bombed Arsenal with crosses in the past, and the Gunners will need to limit that supply. But this season, the Potters have added speed and creativity to their weaponry, as their quick strikes against Manchester City showed. Keeping playmaker Bojan Krkic in check and marking the runs of Marko Arnautovic will be extremely important.

Match Verdict

It takes little perspicacity to see this match as a physical and mental gantlet. Even without the tricky Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke have enough in attack to hurt Arsenal. And the Potters still deploy a solid, physical, potentially frustrating defense. But this Arsenal team has a way of succeeding despite the obvious obstacles, and we think they’ll do so again.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. The front man took a beating against Liverpool, got patched up, and returned to score two exquisite goals. That increased his total to 18 in all competitions this season. If he can outwit (not difficult) and outmuscle (more difficult) head Orc Ryan Shawcross, Arsenal will succeed.

Stoke City. Ibrahim Affelay. Several Stoke players may grab the camera’s attention more than the Dutch midfielder does, but his deployment will dictate the match’s dynamic. If he works deeper in the midfield, he’ll be assigned to control Özil, meaning manager Mark Hughes is placing the priority on defending. If he takes a more advanced role, that will reveal Hughes’s attacking intent.