Arsenal 2 Leicester City 1: Three Things We Learned

For those justly annoyed over football's accelerating mutation into a mode of corporate consumption. For those unjustly condemnatory of a longtime, brilliant steward of Arsenal Football Club. For those weary of winter midnights and pre-dawns across the globe to witness our dreams for 20- to 35-year-old men meet the harsh realities of elite competition.

I give you Danny Welbeck in the 95th minute against Leicester City.

When the English forward returned from his 10-month injury absence and headed home to give Arsenal a critical 2-1 win over league leaders Leicester City, he joined us all in the euphoria. The joy we shared is the fundamental reason we follow sport.

Let's all pause and recognize that this Arsenal team has provided us with four such occasions already this season, in four different fashions, really: The first-half swamping of Manchester United, the brilliant rearguard action against world powers Bayern Munich, the makeshift inspiration against Manchester City, and now this, a dramatic infusion of faith.

Gratitude for those moments should be the primary thing we learned from this match. From an analytical perspective, here are three others.

Arsène Wenger's gambling instincts can still come up aces

The Arsenal manager showed he hasn't lost his taste for a bet. Instead of establishing a game plan to negate Leicester City's counterattacking strengths, Wenger sent his team out to do what they do best. The Gunners moved the ball quickly, attacked the Leicester defenders at speed, and kept plugging even when the breaks went against them.

This approach brought the rewards.

Arsenal had the better of the play in the first half, particularly in the opening 20 minutes, when the objective was obviously to score and force Leicester to spend the bulk of the match outside its defensive comfort zone. The goal didn't come, as often it doesn't, and Leicester got the break it needed when Jamie Vardy conned referee Martin Atkinson into awarding a penalty, which he dispatched.

Rather than sulk over this injustice, Arsenal started the second half assertively. The key, it turned out, was Alexis taking on Leicester right back Danny Simpson. Simpson's regular fouling of the Arsenal dynamo eventually led to a yellow card for a body block and a second yellow and expulsion for tugging back Olivier Giroud.

This handed the initiative squarely to the Gunners. Wenger took it and placed an even more substantial wager on his attackers. He replaced deep-lying midfielder Francis Coquelin with the dangerous but lately powerless Theo Walcott, who provided the cool finish that leveled the score on 70 minutes.

Then, knowing his team needed to win to legitimate their case as contenders for the league title, he sent on yet another forward, Welbeck, a player whose only action since last April consisted of 45 minutes with the Arsenal youth team.

As a result, Arsenal were fielding a goalkeeper, four defenders, one central midfielder with attacking instincts (Aaron Ramsey), playmaker Mesut Özil, and four forwards. Against a team deadly on the counterattack, even with 10 men.

Jackpot.

Arsenal can achieve top intensity

Leicester reached the Premier League summit with a combination of persistent intensity and clinical finishing. Arsenal rose to the challenge, matching the league leaders' energy and desire.

These are impossible qualities to quantify and therefore overused by those who review matches. Mentions of "desire" and "mental strength"--or the lack thereof--usually signal laziness, ignorance, or at least the absence of analysis.

In this case, though, the manager had a supportable point when he said:

We put the intensity in from the first to the last minute. It was as well a mental test for us, because to find yourself down 1-0 at half-time to a team who defends so well, you need to keep going in your head. And we came back in the second half with relentless energy. And we took as well all the risks to win it. We knew a draw was not good enough. In the end it paid off, down to the mental desire of the team to give absolutely everything to win it.

The Gunners did not let up, producing nine of their 24 shots in the last 10 minutes of the match. The last one was the best.

Olivier Giroud's fortitude founded this performance

Arsenal's overall persistence and desire took form in center forward Olivier Giroud. The Frenchman, sometimes too demonstrative in his expressions of discomfort, more than held his own in the physical battle against Leicester's hulking center halves Robert Huth and Wes Morgan.

Giroud won 13 of 20 aerial duels, according to FourFourTwo's StatsZone app, and created four chances for teammates. One of those was the strong but cultured knockdown that invited Walcott to slot home the equalizing goal.

Giroud also made two tackles, including an eye-catching one as Arsenal increased the pressure after Walcott's goal. He chased down Leicester's tireless midfielder N'Golo Kanté well into the Arsenal half and nipped the ball to Alexis.

This was one example of Giroud's willingness to leave his predictable post; at other times, he ran left and unsettled Leicester's defense. Indeed, that was where Giroud spun Simpson and drew the decisive second yellow on Leicester's right back.

Extra time

A word here for Nacho Monreal. Arsenal's outstanding left back fell victim to Vardy's machinations for the penalty. Based on his overall performance, though, he deserved to be on the winning side.

The Spaniard shut down Leicester's dangerous Riyad Mahrez for the second game, this time without the concerted assistance of midfielder Santi Cazorla. He succeeded on five of seven tackles, made nine ball recoveries, and won all three of his headers.

Monreal was also Arsenal's second most prolific passer on the day, completing 72 of 80 (90 percent). His combination with Alexis, the second most frequent for the team, and his interplay with Ramsey, tied for the third most frequent combination, suggest the team may have found a new route from defense to attack.

How Arsenal Can Beat Leicester

When league leaders Leicester City visit the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, the onus will be on Arsenal to accomplish what only one other Premier League team has done this season: Defeat the formidable Foxes.

Leicester’s story is now well-known. Nearly relegated into the Championship last season, the Midlands team hired veteran manager Claudio Ranieri and have rampaged through the league campaign to date. Thanks partly to a relatively clean injury record—Leicester have lost fewer player weeks to injury than all but one other team—and to a style that suits their personnel perfectly, the Foxes sit five points clear of Tottenham and Arsenal.

They visit London just after an impressive 3-1 away victory at Manchester City, and for Arsenal to reduce the five-point difference in the standings and energize their own push for the title, the Gunners must find a way to stop the Leicester juggernaut.

When the two sides met in September, Arsenal produced a swashbuckling 5-2 win. But a game plan that relies on outracing Leicester might not be wise here. For one thing, Arsenal haven’t been efficient recently, having failed to score in three straight league matches before notching two first-half goals against Bournemouth on Saturday. Leicester are also less generous than they were in September, with five clean sheets in their last seven matches.

There are several other approaches that could position Arsenal for victory on Sunday. Some are restrained; others, radical. This article examines some of the options available to manager Arsène Wenger and his team.

Let Leicester have the ball

Leicester have shown a preference for playing without possession. In 25 league matches, the Foxes have had more of the ball—that is, made more passes—than their opponents only twice, according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app. One of those occasions was against a Bournemouth side reduced to 10 men by a 57th-minute red card.

This tactical choice plays to Leicester’s strengths. The Foxes have a skillful distributor in N’Golo Kanté, quick attackers in Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez, and Shinji Okazaki, and a killer instinct in front of goal. That last attribute has given the team the best results in converting shots within the penalty area. (See 7AM Kickoff’s "Leicester are winning the league through superior finishing” for an analysis.)

One way, then, for Arsenal to mitigate Leicester’s strengths would be to relinquish possession to the visitors. This would need to happen in a controlled way with Arsenal’s players organized, coordinated, and positioned behind the ball.

Although such an approach would mark a departure from Arsenal’s overall playing philosophy, there’s considerable precedent for it. In important matches against accomplished opponents, such as Bayern Munich and Manchester City, the Gunners have sacrificed possession for the sake of controlling dangerous spaces.

Granted, Bayern and Man City are possession-based sides and were more than happy to take Arsenal up on the offer. It’s not clear how a possession-averse side like Leicester would respond.

Still, last season Arsenal went to West Ham, managed by defense-and-long-ball aficionado Sam Allardyce, compiled just 42 percent possession, and came away 2-1 winners. A similar approach and result would be welcome on Sunday.

Make Leicester’s defense move

In September, Arsenal succeeded in unsettling Leicester’s back line. They’re less susceptible to speed now because they’re less adventurous and better protected by Kanté and Danny Drinkwater. That certainly showed in last week’s win over Man City, when Sergio Aguero, David Silva, and Raheem Sterling failed to make a telling mark despite their quickness.

But, as Adrian Clarke points out on the Official Arsenal Weekly Podcast, Leicester center backs Wes Morgan and Robert Huth are not the fleetest afoot and might not cover a midfield run from Aaron Ramsey or Mesut Özil if Arsenal center forward Olivier Giroud can occupy both of them for an instant.

Similarly, the Leicester fullbacks, Danny Simpson and Christian Fuchs, are not all that fast by the standards of the Premier League. They rely on sound positioning and organization to control wide attackers. Counterattacks at speed by Alexis Sanchez and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain or the kind of direct play Tim Stillman described on this week's Arsenal Vision Post-Match Podcast could stake Arsenal to an advantage.

Double up Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez is the Foxes’ creative genius and, with Vardy, their one-two goal combination. Keeping him quiet will go a long way, though not all the way, to squelching Leicester’s attack.

Arsenal largely succeeded at this task in September by skillful defending on its left. Fullback Nacho Monreal had an excellent day and received consistent support from midfielder Santi Cazorla. The two didn’t allow Mahrez to surge into attack, and they limited the space through which he could dribble. Mahrez began to work the other flank in response.

Cazorla’s absence complicates Arsenal’s effort to reprise this performance. Ramsey is capable of the diligence required, as he showed against Bournemouth last weekend and in prior seasons as Mikel Arteta’s midfield partner. But his work will have to be in synch with Monreal’s and with that of either Mathieu Flamini or Francis Coquelin. Flamini, who started alongside Cazorla at Leicester, hasn’t developed the most seamless partnership with Ramsey, while Coquelin has hardly played with the Welshman.

Defending against the threat posed by Mahrez will therefore be a real test.

Match Leicester’s formation

This would be a radical and unlikely choice.

Leicester’s setup is described as a 4-4-2, but it’s more of a 4-4-1-1 or even a 4-5-1. Okazaki plays behind Vardy and serves as both a second striker and as an additional midfielder. His energy and ability in the tackle permit him to execute these dual roles.

Arsenal could send out a mirror image of this formation, which would give the Gunners more security to relinquish the ball (as in the option above). It would also put Arsenal players in better position to pressure Leicester’s long passes from midfield.

Those are both reasonable objectives, but committing to this structure would involve several major personnel changes. First, to match not only Leicester’s formation but its energy, Arsenal would most likely position Ramsey further forward. He’d be the best equipped to execute the Okazaki role, as he does for the Welsh national side.

With Ramsey in a more advanced role than normal, Arsenal would need a different partnership in central midfield, some mix of Flamini, Coquelin, and Mohammed Elneny. Playmaker Mesut Özil would shift to one flank with Alexis on the other. Giroud could still lead the line in this setup, but the attack would be more static than is customary.

I don’t think we’ll see this structure or lineup on Sunday. It would take Arsenal away from its strengths, disrupt the flow, and dislodge the team’s best player this season. Wenger isn’t likely to take such a gamble in this crucial encounter.

There are other, more tested, ways of making the most of Arsenal’s advantages while minimizing Leicester’s considerable threats. No doubt as Sunday’s critical encounter approaches, Wenger and his staff are weighing these options with more experience and wisdom than Arsenal bloggers and twitterati would.

Leicester City 2 Arsenal 5: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal produced a swashbuckling 5-2 win at Leicester City on Saturday.

The performance doubled the Gunners' goal output for the season and ended Leicester's unbeaten opening run. Combined with the midweek win over Tottenham in the Capital One Cup, Saturday's victory represented a strong response to disappointing losses in the two preceding contests at Dinamo Zagreb and Chelsea.

Here are three things we learned from the match.

Don't get into a shootout with Arsenal

In truth, we could fill a report with accounts and analysis of the various ways Arsenal scored--incisive counterattack, deft crosses, individual skill off a set play, precise timing of a fullback run. That's testament to how rampant Arsenal's offense was in this match.

Allowed space by Leicester's high defensive line, Arsenal's Theo Walcott and Alexis Sanchez swooped into dangerous areas again and again. Leicester's midfield failed to put pressure on Santi Cazorla and Mesut Özil, giving those two pass masters many opportunities to pick out the runs of their teammates farther forward.

The numbers (from Opta via the StatsZone app) reveal the consequences.

Arsenal had 26 shots, an amazing 22 inside the Leicester penalty area, and only missed the target with one (not including the 14 blocks Leicester made).

Cazorla completed 71 of 77 passes (92 percent), created five opportunities for teammates, and assisted on Walcott's opening goal. Özil connected on 54 of 59 passes (also 92 percent), also created five scoring chances for teammates, and delivered a delicious cross for Alexis's second goal.

Leicester tried but could not match the Gunners' effectiveness in attack. The Foxes took 16 shots of their own, 11 in the Arsenal penalty area, and opened the scoring in the 13th minute when Jamie Vardy latched on to a long clearance, outran Per Mertesacker, and finished past Petr Cech into the far corner.

This set the tone for a wide-open match, which played to Arsenal's strengths.

Alexis loves Leicester

The King Power Stadium in Leicester will hold fond memories for Alexis when he ends his time in the Premier League.

Arsenal's star man got his first league goal there last season and ended his early season drought there Saturday with goals of opportunism and top quality.

His first was a welcome, straightforward finish, thanks to Walcott's clever run to the near post, which took two Leicester defenders with him. When Hector Bellerin's cross was redirected by that three-player melee, Alexis found himself with the ball in front of an open goal. The easiest of putaways got him off the mark for the season.

For his second, he received another pass from the marauding Bellerin, passed to Özil across the top of the Leicester penalty area, timed his run to escape all the defenders, then redirected Özil's cross past the onrushing Leicester keeper Kasper Schmeichel.

He capped the hat trick with a screaming low shot from outside the penalty area, an opening he generated himself with a deft flick of Nacho Monreal's throw-in past Leicester's Ngolo Kanté.

These were a worthy payoff for Alexis's combination of creativity, desire, and skill that took him to such heights in his inaugural Premier League campaign.

Nacho Monreal may be the best left back in the Premier League

It's a variation of the rags-to-riches story. Monreal joins Arsenal in January 2013, primarily due to the injury of starting left back Kieran Gibbs. The Spaniard does not thrive under the circumstances but gradually learns the requirements and tricks of a Premier League defender.

Watch the recent interview on the club's website for Monreal's thoughtful reflection on his career.

He's now made 94 appearances for Arsenal; his latest was an absolutely top performance against the league's in-form attacking player, Leicester's Riyad Mahrez.

Mahrez came into the match with five goals and three assists in six games this season. Monreal shut him out on Saturday, so much so that Mahrez switched sides to try to find better opportunities on Arsenal's right.

Overall, Monreal made seven ball recoveries, succeeded on seven of the eight clearances he attempted, and won seven of eight aerial duels. He also assisted on Olivier Giroud's goal in second half injury time, taking advantage of the flagging Leicester defense to reach the by-line and cut the ball back for the Arsenal striker.

That closed Monreal's outstanding display and solidified his place as the top left back in the league at the moment. Name a better one. 
 

Extra time

This was Walcott's top showing as a center forward for Arsenal.

The conditions favored him: Leicester's lumbering center backs and assertive defensive line gave him the space to use his speed. He did that, connected with Cazorla's defense-splitting pass, and delivered a subtle left-footed finish for Arsenal's first goal.

On other occasions, Walcott created space for teammates with intelligent runs, such as the one that freed Alexis for his opening goal. And he held his own in the physical battles.