Mesut Özil and Arsenal's Midfield Misadventure

When Arsenal's offense hums, playmaker Mesut Özil orchestrates it. But neither he nor the team got into a rhythm in Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United. The Gunners’ inability to register a shot on target until Olivier Giroud’s equalizer in the 89^th minute seems like clear proof of the team’s ineffectiveness on the day.

Combine that reality with the hosts’ crisper passing and effective defending, and you get a rather unpleasant display for Arsenal fans. A pleasing result, no doubt, but not with the aesthetic quality we would like to see.

Pause from the monocause

As ever in this era of reductive outrage, many observers laid the responsibility at the feet of either Özil or Aaron Ramsey. The attacking midfielders carried the creative potential in this particular starting XI; the other members of the front six tended to the direct (Alexis, Theo Walcott) or the risk managers (Francis Coquelin, Mohammed Elneny).

It’s true that neither Özil nor Ramsey created a chance for a teammate. Between them, they completed only one pass in the opposition penalty area. And neither took a shot.

So at one level you can see why Arsenal’s two talents took criticism for the pedestrian display overall.

But those complaints, true to our age, oversimplify complex developments.

Kelly Wood’s defense of Ramsey, “Aaron Ramsey! He is Great,” hammers the Ramsey critics effectively, so I won’t restate her points here. What I will do instead is try to understand the dynamics that brought on this performance, particularly from Özil.

So, what’s Özil’s scenario?

First, the statistics don’t reveal anything out of the ordinary. Özil completed 58 passes against Manchester United, just one fewer than his season average. His passing accuracy of 86 percent was only one percentage point lower than his norm so far this year.

The difference was where Özil did this work. Instead of combining with Alexis and Walcott on the edge or in Manchester United’s penalty area, the German playmaker operated much closer to midfield. The heat maps on whoscored.com show Özil frequenting the middle third. That was a change of his sphere of influence, given that he’s one of the Premier League’s most prolific final-third passers.

Not only did this shift of activity take Özil away from where he’s most dangerous, it jammed him into an area where others were operating. In particular, Alexis dropped deep from his center forward position to receive the ball—note the overlap with Özil on the heat map.

Rather than creating triangles to facilitate quick passing, the Gunners’ close proximity to each other in midfield allowed Manchester United’s midfielders to clog the spaces.

There was another team on the pitch

That was central to Jose Mourinho’s brutal design.

The Manchester United manager set out to deny Özil opportunities on the ball. The German genius often found himself surrounded by three opposition players—center backs Marcos Rojo and Phil Jones pushing up and midfielder Michael Carrick shielding passes into him. When he ventured to the left, right back Antonio Valencia and a central midfielder usually had him cornered.

Loosening these defensive shackles proved difficult. It required guile and skill from Özil's midfield teammates or a dangerous distraction elsewhere.

For all their positive qualities and contributions, Coquelin and Elneny could not provide the craft to free Özil. The central pair focused on breaking up the hosts’ attacks and making the simple pass out. These two responsibilities were difficult enough, what with the harassment they received from Ander Herrera.

To find the well-marshalled Özil, they needed more daring.

Creative responsibility wasn’t their brief, though, as manager Arsène Wenger admitted afterward. “I knew it would be a bit more of a physical battle, so I chose players who have experience and fight,” he told Arsenal.com.

Method to the midfield

There’s a logic to this approach. Many factors weighed against Arsenal in this match, even if this wasn’t the most fearsome Manchester United lineup of all time.

Early kickoff. Return from the international break. The Mourinho hoodoo. A 10-year league victory drought at Old Trafford. Injuries to dynamic players like Hector Bellerin and Santi Cazorla.

In that context, you can understand a more circumspect approach from Arsenal. Wenger was right that midfield robustness was important; it’s just that his charges didn’t cope superbly with the aggressiveness of Manchester United in that area of the pitch.

They handled it well enough to get a draw. If the players’ post-game comments are a true indication, they’ll be honest in their assessment of the performance and optimistic that better outings lie ahead.

Match Preview, Manchester United v Arsenal: Day One of Ten That Define

Arsenal’s visit to Manchester United on Sunday commences a defining ten-day stretch.

Between February 28^th and March 8^th, the Gunners will play four matches. Their three Premier League encounters with Manchester United, Swansea, and Tottenham are separated by just three days each. Then, three days after the North London Derby, Arsenal travel to Hull for a replay of the FA Cup 5^th Round match, seeking to advance toward an historic third consecutive trophy in that competition.

The league matches—two at the grounds of other top-five sides--present a challenge that a title-winning team must rise to. As manager Arsène Wenger said, “It is the key period. We work the whole season for this period and that’s where you’re really tested, but it’s where you have an opportunity to show your quality as well. On that front, that is the most interesting period of the season.”

So far, Arsenal have fared well against direct rivals for the league crown, having won four, drawn one, and lost none against Leicester City, Tottenham, Manchester City, and Manchester United.

Four of those five matches were at home, however, including the 3-0 thrashing of Sunday’s opponents in early October. How instructive will we find that contest in our efforts to understand what might happen on Sunday?

In brief, Arsenal had the right tactical plan that day and the personnel to execute it; Manchester United did not. (See Arsenal’s Tactical Triumph for more detail.)

But the personnel will definitely change on Sunday, and the plans will probably shift, too. Both teams have suffered injuries to vital players. For Arsenal, the most telling loss has been that of Santi Cazorla, the architect of the October victory. His ability to dance out of the visitors’ midfield pressure in the first half opened the attacking space that Arsenal exploited.

In response to Cazorla’s absence, Manchester United manager Louis van Gaal may again decide to press Arsenal’s midfield. That’s a tactic most opponents have tried since Cazorla’s November knee injury, and Arsenal have often sputtered as a result. Van Gaal does have two players, Morgan Schneiderlin and Ander Herrera, who can harry the Arsenal midfield.

The problem is that pressing requires synchronization, persistence, conditioning, and a strong last line of defense. The Red Devils have not had a settled midfield since the turn of the year, raising questions about both their ability to coordinate the press and their capacity to stick to the physical and mental task. Furthermore, due to injuries across the back four, the United defense lacks stability.

Given those factors, van Gaal may opt for the risk-averse, possession game that has characterized much of his team’s play this season. With Michael Carrick and Juan Mata, United do have the players to implement this approach. How aggressively and effectively Arsenal disrupt the hosts’ efforts in this respect will influence the dynamics of the match.

Its outcome, though, will probably be decided up front. Manchester United lack a proven match-winner because Wayne Rooney is out with injury; Arsenal don’t have a player in any kind of goal-scoring form. Indeed, the Gunners have been held scoreless in five of their last eight matches. So both teams could stumble at the critical moment in front of goal.

If Arsenal can convert just one of the many chances it might get—as the league’s most creative team in terms of clear goal-scoring opportunities—that could do the trick. And at the outset of this critical sequence of matches, a positive result is all that matters.

Key Matchup

Aaron Ramsey against the Manchester United midfield. Restored to his preferred position in central midfield, Arsenal’s Welshman has performed creditably. Perhaps those performances haven’t met expectations, but were those expectations reasonable? As Tim Stillman observes in his Arseblog column “Sacrificial Ram,” Ramsey has been doing three jobs at once, supporting his deep-lying midfield partner, making up for the absence of a ball-control specialist on the right, and sparking Arsenal’s preference for attacking to the left.

Ramsey will face skillful and intelligent opponents in Scheiderlin and Herrera. The extent to which he can slip their attentions and initiate Arsenal’s attacks will shape Arsenal’s threat overall.

Where to Worry

Arsenal’s defensive focus flagged on just a few occasions against Barcelona on Tuesday evening. Two of those lapses proved fatal. The injury-riddled Manchester United don’t possess the proven attacking threats of Barcelona—no team does, in truth—but at this level, with these stakes, the slightest mental error can be a killer. Wenger and his team will need to turn all their attentions to the task at hand on Sunday.

Match Verdict

Most of the accomplished talent on display will be in the midfield, with Manchester United’s Schneiderlin, Herrera, and Juan Mata facing off against Ramsey, Mesut Özil, and Alexis Sanchez. Those two trios will be at the center of the action, but this one comes down to the two defenses. Arsenal’s, anchored by the impressive Petr Cech, has been more stable than Manchester United’s, who may have to cope without its standout keeper David de Gea.

Despite the Gunners’ recent goal-scoring struggles, their chances of getting an unmissable opportunity against Manchester United’s makeshift back line seem strong.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. The ex-Manchester United man has looked lively and dangerous since his return from injury. He’s shown he can rise to the occasion—both here in last season’s FA Cup quarterfinal and in his match-winning substitute appearance against Leicester City two weeks ago. If he’s physically ready, he merits a start, and that can’t be a tantalizing prospect for these opposition defenders.

Manchester United. Juan Mata. The Spaniard now pulls the strings for Manchester United, a role that suits him. He can also find dangerous spaces in the opponents’ penalty area, avoiding the attentions of defenders and midfielders. Arsenal’s Francis Coquelin will need to be especially diligent tracking Mata’s movements.

Arsenal's Tactical Triumph

While we marvel in the sublime skill and breathtaking speed Arsenal displayed against Manchester United on Sunday, we should also praise the team’s tactical triumph. The flexibility that manager Arsène Wenger and his players displayed bamboozled the visitors and their supposed tactical genius of a manager, Louis van Gaal.

In fact, van Gaal’s approach played right into Arsenal’s hands, permitting the Gunners to emphasize their strengths and to exploit Manchester United’s weaknesses. Once Arsenal had secured the three-goal advantage, they adapted to various situations and remained the superior force.
 
Let’s look at how the game plans unfolded.

Early onslaught

Arsenal showed every intention of starting the match assertively. This not only represented a response to the poor midweek showing in the Champions League against Olympiacos, but it also conformed to the patterns of this Premier League season. In particular, the home team takes the initiative early to gain the superiority it needs to play on the counterattack. (See Danny Higginbotham’s column in The Independent for a clear explanation of this trend.)

Two goals before the 10-minute mark are the proof Arsenal succeeded. Here’s evidence of the intention: Deep-lying midfielder Francis Coquelin’s position just before Alexis Sanchez opened the scoring.

Coquelin helps start the attack, then follows Hector Bellerin and Mesut Özil up the right side of the pitch into an advanced position for a defensive midfielder. From where he is, he can trouble three of United’s possible escape routes, via Wayne Rooney, Bastian Schweinsteiger, or Memphis Depay.

Coquelin joins attack but positions himself to thwart any possible United counter-attack

As it happens, Manchester United does intercept Bellerin’s centering pass, but Coquelin beats Memphis to the ball and gets it back to Özil. That’s when Özil’s quick interchange with Aaron Ramsey and sprint to the byline scramble the Manchester defense and create the scoring opportunity.

Manchester United’s susceptibility

The buildup to this play also reveals Manchester United’s vulnerability and the flaws of its game plan.

Van Gaal apparently decided to man-mark Arsenal in the center of the pitch. Schweinsteiger covered Santi Cazorla, Rooney was assigned Coquelin, and Michael Carrick was on Özil.

United's man marking the midfield put them at a distinct disadvantage in controlling the match

This setup handed the initiative to Arsenal. Schweinsteiger is 31 years old; Cazorla is only a year younger but a magician with the ball. Rooney is 29; Coquelin, 24. Carrick is 34; Ozil, 26. Add the speed of thought and passing to the age difference, and Arsenal were just too quick in the midfield.

A word here, too, about the role of Per Mertesacker. Schweinsteiger leaves Cazorla and tries to close down the Arsenal captain, but Mertesacker outfoxes him with a one-touch pass to Coquelin, who has eluded Rooney. This springs the attack.

Flailing fullbacks

Another consequence of Manchester United’s man-marking in the midfield was that its fullbacks had very little support defending the spaces on the flanks. Alexis took advantage of this situation, running Matteo Darmian ragged.

The situation titled even more favorably toward Arsenal because Manchester United central defenders Chris Smalling and, in particular, Daley Blind were sensitive to the threat of Theo Walcott. Walcott’s speed and movement upset the defensive balance and, just before the third Arsenal goal, forced Darmian into a narrow position, leaving Alexis free to receive Walcott’s pass and move into a threatening position with the ball. (See Adrian Clark's analysis of this passage of play on The Breakdown on the official Arsenal website.)

With Ashley Young defending like a winger playing fullback on Manchester United's left, the effectiveness of Arsenal’s Bellerin and Nacho Monreal was a stark contrast.

Consolidation

Immediately after Alexis drove home his second goal of the first 20 minutes, Arsenal’s objective changed. A three-goal lead made controlling dangerous spaces the priority. Manchester United’s ponderous play helped Arsenal in this respect, as did the shift to a 4-4-1-1 formation.

Coquelin and Cazorla moved together closer to the center of the pitch and Arsenal’s center backs, while Alexis and Ramsey dropped deeper from their attacking initial positions.

Arsenal move to a 4-4-1-1 to protect the lead

Alexis is slightly advanced here because he’s engaging Darmian on Arsenal’s left, but overall this is the compact shape Arsenal used to protect its lead and start further counterattacks.

It’s a perfect response to the game situation, Arsenal having earned the right to play on the counter with its early three-goal blitz.

Adaptation

At halftime, Van Gaal replaced Darmian with Antonio Valencia and Memphis with Marouane Fellaini. The latter brought his physical-bordering-on-fouly presence into the center of midfield. This change spurred the visitors to become more assertive in midfield, creating two shots on target midway through the half.

Wenger and his team adapted. He instructed Ramsey to leave his post on the right and join Coquelin and Cazorla in the center of midfield. Özil went right, and Arsenal took a 4-3-3 shape.

Ramsey tucks in to form a 4-3-3 to adjust to United's halftime changes

This adjustment largely succeeded in upsetting Manchester United’s rhythm.

Later, Wenger made one final shift, introducing the more physical center forward presence of Olivier Giroud and returning to the 4-2-3-1 shape from which Arsenal had started the match. Only this time, Ramsey took the playmaker role and joined Giroud in defending from the front of the formation. Substitute Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain became the main threat on the counterattack, nearly capping the scoring with a chip off the bar in injury time.

Had that gone in, the final score of 4-0 would not have flattered Arsenal. With a clear game plan, tactical flexibility, expert execution, a focused mentality, and physical commitment, the Gunners dispatched one of its bogey teams and made manifest their potential to mount a title challenge.

(Graphics courtesy YouAreMyArsenal)

Match Preview, Manchester United v Arsenal: Minimal Mystery

Arsenal's visit to Old Trafford won't carry the drama that seemed likely when the fixture list was released. Originally the penultimate match of the league campaign, the contest could have decided the two sides' Champions League fates or one of their title aspirations.

Neither remains in the balance. Arsenal have already amassed enough points to secure a top-four league finish, while United would have to give up a plus-14 advantage in goal differential to lose its own Champions League spot. Meanwhile, Chelsea have won the title.

The two teams won't hold any major surprises for each other, either. They met two months ago in the FA Cup quarterfinal, a 2-1 Arsenal victory that signaled further improvement against top competition away from home.

Still, no Arsenal-Manchester United contest is devoid of drama, and this one will be interesting on several levels.

For one thing, the implications for the final league table remain important. Arsenal need a win to maintain any hope of finishing second, which was a realistic--and stated--objective prior to Monday's loss to Swansea. A victory would also guarantee the Gunners third place and a pass on next season's Champions League qualifying round.

A United victory keeps open the possibility of a third-place finish for Louis Van Gaal's team, while a draw would give Van Gaal the points for a fourth-place finish and Arsenal almost all it needs for third. It'd be out of character for both Van Gaal and Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger to play for that result, so their approaches will be interesting in light of their objectives for the season.

Second, this is the final opportunity for Arsenal to consolidate its away performances against top opposition. The victory at Manchester City, the FA Cup win at Old Trafford, and to some degree the loss at Chelsea have shown that Arsenal are no longer naive travelers.

Although Arsenal played energetically in all three matches, the manager and the team did not take a uniform approach. They placed priority on solid defending in their own half against City and Chelsea, while they pressed United's midfielders and defenders assertively.

Lacking Michael Carrick's ball retention and passing efficiency due to his injury, is United vulnerable to a similar pressing approach on Sunday? Or will Wenger see West Bromich Albion's and Chelsea's recent rear-guard victories over United and his side's result at Manchester City as suggesting a more defensive stature? Will Wayne Rooney's exclusion bear on the Arsenal manager's thinking at all?

All those questions lead to a third interesting point. Based on Wenger's priorities for this match and his judgment of how to realize those, which players does he select? The team looked less than energetic against Swansea, particularly in the first half, and there may be a temptation to bring some variety to the lineup. After all, it was the fifth consecutive appearance for the identical starting eleven, an unprecedented run in Wenger's tenure.

Midfielders Jack Wilshere and Tomas Rosicky are the most likely candidates to join the starters. They'd each add verve to the Arsenal attack, though Wenger will weigh their energy going forward with defensive necessities. In particular, Arsenal's right-sided attacker will have to assist right back Hector Bellerin in marshaling United's Ashley Young, a primary agent of Van Gaal's directive to send crosses into the opposition's penalty area.

A healthy Danny Welbeck or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain might have expected to join the Arsenal XI because they'd bring speed in attack and defensive tenacity, but neither is ready to return to the scene of his outstanding FA Cup performance.

Even without Welbeck's desire to show his old employers again what they've forsaken, and even without the high stakes these encounters have carried in the past, Arsenal-Manchester United will always have its intrigues. It's each club's most prominent fixture as the season draws to a close, so the result could shape the storylines and tone for several months. Worth the attention.