Neither Arsenal nor Hull City had this on a list of preferences—an FA Cup 5th
Round replay in the middle of crucial fixtures in other competitions.
Yet Tuesday’s meeting at the KC Stadium appeared on the agenda after
neither side could score at the Emirates on February 20th.
In
that contest, a combination of tame Arsenal finishing and an
outstanding performance by Hull goalkeeper Eldin Jakupovic prevented the
Gunners’ dominance from being decisive.
Tigers’ manager Steve
Bruce’s approach was a little odd, changing his team’s setup to a very
defensive 3-5-1-1 even though a draw didn’t suit him. He may have
figured that going for a sucker punch was the best way to knock Arsenal
out at home.
This time, Hull has no reason to play more
assertively. Another 90-minute clean sheet, followed by extra time and
potentially a penalty shootout, would give Bruce’s team a reasonable
chance of advancing to host Watford in Saturday’s quarterfinal.
A
priority on defending makes even more sense in light of Hull’s own
recent struggles in front of goal. The Tigers have scored just once in
their last five matches, including the first leg against Arsenal,
despite shooting 72 times.
That relative impotence has contributed
to Hull’s fall from the Championship’s top spot to third place, outside
the top-two positions that secure promotion to the Premier League.
Of
course, Arsenal are no strangers to inefficient finishing, scoring just
46 goals from the 356 chances (12.9 percent) they’ve created in league
play. The gap between the Gunners’ Expected Goals (xG) and their goals scored is the widest in the league.
Perhaps
Arsenal’s better than expected performance on that measure against
Tottenham on Saturday will be the start of an improving trend: Two
goals, one at a numerical disadvantage, from an xG measure of 0.7.
There were other encouraging signs from Saturday’s combative 2-2 draw in the North London Derby.
Despite Francis Coquelin’s dismissal in the 55th
minute, the Gunners held their own statistically, with passing numbers
comparable to their opposition’s. The midfield seemed more coherent as
well, as Mohamed Elneny’s inclusion in the center and Aaron Ramsey’s
return to the right resulted in quicker ball movement and enhanced
defensive cover. And once they had pulled level through Alexis Sanchez’s
first league goal since mid-October, Arsenal created the chances most
likely to produce a match-winning goal.
Do these indications of
progress tell us anything about the team’s prospects for Tuesday? After
all, a fair number of Saturday’s starters won’t see action against Hull.
Don’t be surprised, though, if Wenger gives Alexis another go in an
effort to build on the Chilean’s spirited and successful showing against
Tottenham. He’ll help the Gunners put greater pressure on Hull’s back
line and help them win their first FA Cup replay since eliminating
Swansea in the 3rd Round in 2013.
Key Matchup
Arsenal’s
fullbacks against Hull’s wide defenders. Hull succeeded in funneling
Arsenal’s attacks into central areas in the first leg, so the onus will
be on the Gunners to widen their play on Tuesday. Without any true,
touchline-hugging wingers, Arsenal will rely on its fullbacks to stretch
the Hull defense.
Calum Chambers will probably get the nod on the
right, while either Nacho Monreal, if he’s shaken off the minor injury
that kept him out Saturday, or Kieran Gibbs will play on the left. All
are capable on the ball; they’ll need to be quick, clever, and dynamic
to offer the variety and danger that seemed lacking in the home fixture.
Where to Worry
This
Arsenal side seems its own biggest challenge at times, in the sense
that bad decision-making and lackluster displays have kept it from
fulfilling its potential. Its task on Tuesday is twofold: Re-energize
itself after a physically and emotionally taxing derby, and combine
effectively as a selection that hasn’t played together much. This will
not be easy work against a determined and accomplished Championship side
on an iffy pitch.
Match Verdict
Arsenal
moves the ball quickly and succeeds at moving Hull City’s defenders out
of position. Joel Campbell and one of Alexis or Ramsey bring ingenuity
to the proceedings, and Alex Iwobi keeps things flowing to his attacking
teammates. Hull are stubborn but can’t hold out.
Players to Watch
Arsenal. Alex Iwobi. Arsenal’s
latest young talent has caught the eye in home cup matches, receiving
the ball on the turn, slipping past defenders, and picking some
dangerous passes. If he can keep the ball moving away from home, the
Gunners will get good chances to score.
Hull City. Edin Jakupovic. It
was his blinder in London that made this replay necessary. If the Hull
keeper can stop Arsenal early, the favorites might start to doubt their
prospects while the hosts gain confidence.
Arsenal’s Last 16 FA Cup encounter with Hull City gives the aesthetic purists another occasion to miss the point.
Much
is expected of the Gunners when they face theoretically inferior
opposition at home in this competition. Not only must they win, they
must do so with ease and style.
So when the team did not glide past Premier League strugglers Sunderland in the 3rd Round or Championship side Burnley in the 4th
Round, a large contingent of supporters and observers criticized the
players and managerial staff. This reaction ignored the nature and
objective of knockout competition.
In one-off contests, the only
thing that matters is to win. That’s especially been the case for
Arsenal in these early FA Cup rounds because the matches have come when
the team hasn’t been in top form. Its January doldrums, featuring three
weeks without a win, accompanied by the unfamiliar lineups fielded in
the Cup, rendered style irrelevant. Victory was paramount.
The
scenario is slightly different for Saturday’s meeting with Hull City.
The Gunners have won two league matches in succession, including the
inspirational comeback over league leaders Leicester City on Sunday.
Rather than using the FA Cup to return to winning habits, Arsenal can
now see it as a way to accelerate their momentum.
A victory can
put the Gunners into a confident mood as they face a crucial and busy
two weeks. First, there’s the visit of seemingly indomitable Barcelona
in Tuesday’s Champions League Round of 16. The following Sunday, they
commence a seven-day league gantlet at Manchester United, followed by a
midweek home match against Swansea, and closed with a trip across North
London to take on their traditional and (whisper it) title rivals
Tottenham.
Hull City have an even busier schedule, having won at Blackburn on February 13th and drawn with Brighton on February 16th, and facing matches at Ipswich Town on Tuesday the 23rd and against Sheffield Wednesday on Friday the 26th.
As
a result, manager Steve Bruce won’t send his first choice,
Championship-leading starting XI onto the Emirates pitch on Saturday.
“Making changes is the only option I’ve got,” he said.
This means
the Tigers’ very good performances—producing the third-highest goals
total while conceding fewer than all but one other team in the
Championship—may not be all that relevant. One theme that might be worth
watching on Saturday is Hull’s attention to high-quality shots on goal.
They’ve scored more often than any other Championship side from shots
within the opposition penalty area.
That’s been a focus of
Arsenal, too. But the Gunners’ biggest threat inside the area, center
forward Olivier Giroud, isn’t likely to play on Saturday. Instead, the
speedy duo of Theo Walcott and Danny Welbeck, along with two players
who’ve displayed a taste for the longer-range shot, Joel Campbell and
Mohamed Elneny, will probably get starts.
It will be interesting
to see how these players combine, particularly in the transitions from
attack to defense to attack. With the speed of Walcott and Welbeck,
Arsenal may well press Hull’s makeshift defense in an effort to force
turnovers. That’s been an approach employed by manager Arsène Wenger at
home, particularly when the right players are available and the
opposition seems vulnerable.
Although this choice of style would
be interesting, it won’t carry too much importance. What will matter on
Saturday, as with all knockout matches, is the victory.
Key Matchup
Alex
Iwobi against Hull City’s holding midfielders. The newest addition to
Arsenal’s first-team squad has caught the eye in his appearances in this
competition. Taking on the playmaker responsibilities from the Premier
League’s top assist man Mesut Özil is a daunting prospect for a
19-year-old, but Iwobi has displayed the quickness of feet and thought
to continue making Arsenal dangerous.
Despite manager Steve
Bruce’s priority on rotating his outfit, Hull City will probably feature
two experienced figures in the center of midfield, from the trio of
Jake Livermore, Tom Huddlestone, and David Meyler. Livermore and Meyler,
in particular, are physical, and Iwobi’s ability to deal with those
attentions could determine how creative and effective Arsenal will be on
the whole.
Where to Worry
Hull City
possess wily wide players, including Sam Clucas, Sone Aluko, and Ahmed
Elmohamady. They can dribble at isolated fullbacks and find teammates in
dangerous positions farther forward. Arsenal will need to coordinate
defensive coverage to minimize this threat.
Match Verdict
Hull
will be diligent and canny defensively and will test Arsenal’s
patience. In the end, though, the Gunners’ speed will lead to a similar
outcome to those of the clubs’ two FA Cup meetings since May 2014, an
Arsenal victory.
Players to Watch
Arsenal. Theo Walcott. Walcott
broke his scoring drought with the critical equalizer against Leicester
City on Sunday. He’ll likely start this match at the tip of Arsenal’s
attack, where his speed will concern the Hull City back line. If he and
Danny Welbeck can synchronize their movements, expect at least one of
them to hurt Hull with a goal.
Hull City. Nick Powell. The Manchester United loanee gets a chance to jumpstart his career at Hull City, and he’ll be looking to impress in his debut.
