Match Preview, Stoke City v Arsenal: The Alexis Conundrum

Arsenal’s tests shift to England’s Northeast from its Northwest with Sunday’s visit to Stoke City. It’s a challenging fixture under any circumstances—Arsenal have just one win in seven Premier League matches there—and so soon after Wednesday’s grueling, frustrating draw at Liverpool, Stoke is a truly trying trip.

The good news is that the Gunners move on from disappointments much more quickly than their supporters do. We’ve seen recent evidence of this, when the 4-0 pasting at Southampton led not to a collapse as 2015 turned to 2016 but instead to three victories in short order.

And even if the legs remain weary, the prospect of Alexis Sanchez’s return is energizing. Although results have been solid in his absence (W7, D1, L1), Arsenal could certainly benefit from the Chilean’s infectious verve. A midwinter match at Stoke City seems like the perfect occasion.

In this occasion, as in all, perfection may elude us. Manager Arsène Wenger would be taking a major risk by immediately calling on Alexis. A re-aggravation of his hamstring injury, a problem related to compensating for his original injury, or consequences of Stoke’s infamously physical play could restrict last season’s star man from contributing substantially to Arsenal’s Premier League title challenge.

Wenger is well aware of the difficulty of this decision. He told his pre-match press conference:

Alexis, I would say has a 60:40 chance to be available and be back in the squad. He has two decisive days - Friday and Saturday. He is fit, he has worked very hard, and the decision we have to take is whether to take a gamble or not on his injury.

One of the manager’s clear considerations is the threat Alexis adds to Arsenal’s attack. Without him, opponents can focus on playmaker Mesut Özil, even man-marking the league’s top provider out of the game, as Southampton did. Alexis’s unpredictability, quickness, and determination will punish a team structured to stop anyone else.

Equally important is Alexis’s contribution to the Gunners’ efforts without the ball. He’s the key to Arsenal’s press in forward areas and forms an effective partnership with left back Nacho Monreal when opponents advance. Alexis can also help defend the middle of the pitch, where the midfielders Aaron Ramsey and Mathieu Flamini have shown they’d benefit from additional cover.

Despite the myriad ways in which Alexis strengthens this Arsenal team, the feeling here is that the manager will deploy him as a substitute. Wenger fancies a gamble, but perhaps not now with a prize asset he needs for as many of the remaining 16 league matches as possible.

Key Matchup

Joel Campbell against Erik Pieters. Arsenal’s once forsaken Costa Rican has risen to impressive form of late, creating danger with timely runs and clever passes from the right of Arsenal’s attack. He’ll need all his decisiveness and skill to outmaneuver Stoke’s well-drilled defensive unit and experienced and physical left back.

Where to Worry

Stoke have bombed Arsenal with crosses in the past, and the Gunners will need to limit that supply. But this season, the Potters have added speed and creativity to their weaponry, as their quick strikes against Manchester City showed. Keeping playmaker Bojan Krkic in check and marking the runs of Marko Arnautovic will be extremely important.

Match Verdict

It takes little perspicacity to see this match as a physical and mental gantlet. Even without the tricky Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke have enough in attack to hurt Arsenal. And the Potters still deploy a solid, physical, potentially frustrating defense. But this Arsenal team has a way of succeeding despite the obvious obstacles, and we think they’ll do so again.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. The front man took a beating against Liverpool, got patched up, and returned to score two exquisite goals. That increased his total to 18 in all competitions this season. If he can outwit (not difficult) and outmuscle (more difficult) head Orc Ryan Shawcross, Arsenal will succeed.

Stoke City. Ibrahim Affelay. Several Stoke players may grab the camera’s attention more than the Dutch midfielder does, but his deployment will dictate the match’s dynamic. If he works deeper in the midfield, he’ll be assigned to control Özil, meaning manager Mark Hughes is placing the priority on defending. If he takes a more advanced role, that will reveal Hughes’s attacking intent.

Match Preview, Arsenal v Sunderland: A Cup in Time or Ill-Timed?

Arsenal’s FA Cup match against Sunderland on Saturday presents an interesting interpretive choice.

There’s the historical angle, focusing on the club’s unparalleled success in the competition. With last May’s demolition of Aston Villa in the final, Arsenal became the most frequent winner of the FA Cup, and manager Arsène Wenger lifted the trophy for the sixth time, more than any other manager in the modern era.

This perspective also features the fillip the FA Cup has been to the club in recent years. After a decade without a title, Arsenal marked a true revival with the 3-2 win after extra time over Hull City in the 2014 Final. The joy of players, staff, and supporters worldwide was memorable and meaningful, and the performance set the stage for the team to master big occasions in 2015.

We therefore must acknowledge the influence the competition has had on Arsenal’s trajectory. Navigating the current cup campaign to a third consecutive trophy, a feat not accomplished since Blackburn Rovers did it in 1886, would seem a fitting next chapter in that narrative.

Wenger has paid homage to his own and Arsenal’s FA Cup record, while turning his gaze, as ever, to the challenge in front of them.

It’s a good challenge [to try to win three in a row], and we’ll take it on. We have the desire to do well and to do it again. Let’s see how we get on in the first test, and let’s deal with that. We have enough confidence, enough desire, so let’s turn up with a positive performance.(Arsenal.com)

Here Wenger is turning to the second angle of interpretation, the one focusing on the immediate. Arsenal are in position to grasp a bigger prize, the Premier League title, and face two difficult road matches in the eight days after Saturday’s cup contest—at Liverpool on Wednesday, January 13, and then at Stoke City on Sunday, January 17. Given the grueling schedule the team just endured over the holiday period, the FA Cup encounter looks less of a priority.

Sunderland has its own reasons for de-emphasizing Saturday’s match: The Black Cats are fighting for survival in the Premier League and have two daunting matches of their own, a trip to Swansea that could reshuffle the relegation deck and another visit to London against Tottenham, in the next week.

As a result, the speculation is that both sides will rest vital players on Saturday.

That will present opportunities for some squad players to stake claims to more first-team action and for a few first teamers to gain some form and confidence. Prominent in the latter group at Arsenal is Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, the subject of considerable jawboning as he experiences a difficult season. An energetic and intelligent performance against Sunderland may be just the thing to spark Oxlade-Chamberlain into contributions commensurate with his talent.

Meanwhile, it’ll be interesting to see how Wenger uses youngsters Alex Iwobi and Jeff Reine-Adelaide. The pair of attackers has made the substitutes’ bench in recent Premier League fixtures due to the raft of first-team injuries, and Saturday’s contest seems an appropriate occasion to increase their involvement.

Wenger has been cagey about the scope of squad rotation, though. He has said “At the moment, I make two or three changes maximum,” while at the same time he’s described Reine-Adelaide as “mature enough to cope with the challenges of the Premier League, and he has technique as well.”

Sunderland manager Sam Allardyce has been far less coy. He has called the schedule “diabolical” and argued, “Don’t give me stick when I change the side at Arsenal.” Whether this is an adept feint or revealing only Saturday’s teamsheet will reveal.

Because identifying the starters is so difficult—and knowing each other isn’t straightforward for the makeshift teams, either—it’s tough to foresee the dynamics of the match. In general, Arsenal will probably enjoy more possession, while Sunderland tries to maintain its defensive organization and pose danger on the counterattack. Neither manager will want a replay, though, so the teams will attack to force a result.

If that means that an Arsenal player or two emerge with a more positive view of their skill and potential contribution, this match could become another memorable mark in the club’s FA Cup history.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. This match offers prime conditions for Oxlade-Chamberlain. He’ll go up against replacement defenders and midfielders unaccustomed to his speed and strength in a relatively low-pressure contest. He’s shown a knack for scoring in cup games as well.

Sunderland. Duncan Watmore. The speedy winger might be a regular starter that Allardyce sends out on Saturday as well. That’s because he hasn’t played a full season and poses a serious threat on the counterattack, as evidenced by his work in the sides’ Premier League encounter.

Arsenal's Midfield in Midwinter

The aesthetics of Arsenal’s 2015-16 Premier League campaign certainly turned on that moment in Norwich when midfielder Santi Cazorla unwittingly swung his leg into Norwich City’s Gary O’Neill. In that split second, Cazorla ruptured a knee ligament and joined midfield partner Francis Coquelin on the sidelines until early spring.

When the severity of Cazorla’s injury became known, there was no question manager Arsène Wenger would have to change personnel: The only two plausible midfielders available were Mathieu Flamini and Aaron Ramsey. The issue was whether Wenger would rethink the team’s formation and style to adjust for the absence of two essential players.

Evolution of the status quo

Flamini and Ramsey have now played six matches together—against Sunderland, Aston Villa, Manchester City, Southampton, and Newcastle in the league and against Olympiacos in the Champions League. Halfway through those fixtures, it appeared that the differences between this midfield of necessity and its preferred predecessor were subtle but not substantive. The formation remained a 4-2-3-1, for example, with the likely candidates simply replacing their injured colleagues.

Over the festive period, however, the differences became more pronounced. In particular, where Coquelin and Cazorla had emerged as a well-coordinated, if unlikely, pairing, Flamini and Ramsey grew less and less synchronized. Their divergence was made clear by the performance of Calum Chambers in Flamini’s stead against Bournemouth: In his first outing as Ramsey’s midfield partner, the neophyte looked more integrated and influential than Flamini did against Southampton or Newcastle.

Let’s be clear about two things, though: 1. The sample size remains small, particularly when it comes to Chambers’s involvement; and 2. The effects have not been the catastrophe many expected.

Since Coquelin’s injury against West Bromwich Albion, Arsenal have played nine matches, winning seven, drawing one, and losing one. That’s a successful run, accomplished in large part (six of the nine matches) without last year’s top scorer Alexis Sanchez.

Any criticism of “Flamsey” can’t rest on the results, then.

Instead, the critique seems to focus on the aesthetics. This isn’t meaningless, because we follow the Arsenal in part for the team’s artfulness and because those style points might reveal imperfections that, on other days, could cost the Gunners points in the league table.

In an effort to analyze the dynamics of the current midfield, the rest of this article examines the team’s orientation, its movement from defense to attack, and its defensive framework.

Orientation

Although Arsenal’s setup has remained a 4-2-3-1, there’s often much more space between Flamini and Ramsey than there had been between Coquelin and Cazorla. The average position graphics for each match on Arsenal.com make this point clear. Keep in mind these are composite renderings, so that at any given moment a player might be operating far from his indicated location.

For example, against Watford, the map shows Coquelin and Cazorla almost on top of each other. They were a little farther apart against Everton (map) and against Swansea (map), but in all three cases they took up central positions connected to each other and to their teammates.

The positions of their teammates are also interesting. As we’d expect from watching Wenger’s recent teams, fullbacks Nacho Monreal and Hector Bellerin offer the width, while the wide attacking players Alexis and Ramsey drift inward. And, as would befit standard operating positions, playmaker Mesut Özil works just behind the center forward, whether that’s Olivier Giroud or Theo Walcott.

For comparison, let’s look at the typical positions with Flamini and Ramsey in midfield. As Adrian Clarke pointed out on his ever-excellent Breakdown segment, acres of space separated Flamini and Ramsey against Newcastle (map). But in their other matches together, the distances, on average, are comparable to what we saw from Coquelin and Cazorla. Perhaps mental fatigue played a part in this development last Saturday, prompting Flamini to retreat slightly and Ramsey to advance, truer to their instincts.

With the Flamini-Ramsey midfield so far, Özil often finds himself in the most advanced position, even ahead of Giroud. This change might partly be a result of Giroud’s enhanced and more adept involvement in the buildup of play. Ramsey’s instincts forward might also be a factor; with Ramsey pushing up, Özil does not need to drop deeper to receive the ball.

Distribution

Indeed, we see different patterns of distribution and circulation with Flamini and Ramsey in midfield. Though the destination, as before, is Özil.

Cazorla served as the hub, receiving passes from both center backs, Per Metesacker and Laurent Koscielny, in comparable proportions and working the ball forward to Özil. Against Watford and Everton, Cazorla-to-Özil was Arsenal’s most frequent passing combination, while against Swansea it was tied for third. Meanwhile, a pattern developed on the left, where Monreal linked with Alexis frequently. (Stats from FourFourTwo's StatsZone)

A less diversified pattern has emerged since the Flamini-Ramsey pair debuted against Sunderland.

Ramsey has replaced Cazorla as the conduit to Özil, but he’s less likely to receive the ball from both center backs. It’s more often Koscielny who passes to Ramsey from defense; Mertesacker has been much less involved than he was with Cazorla.

This may have little to do with Cazorla’s exit and Ramsey’s arrival. Instead, the opposition may be putting pressure on Mertesacker so that he can’t jumpstart the offense, which he does so effectively. That’s opened lanes for Koscielny to exploit.

Cover

While the relationships between defenders and midfielders are important to the attack, they’re probably more important when Arsenal don’t have the ball. Midfielders support their rear guard to fend off opposition attacks by intercepting, tackling, blocking, or just outnumbering the offense.

In these duties, Coquelin excels. But Cazorla is no slouch defender. His collaboration with Monreal was particularly effective, as shown by their shutdown of Leicester City’s Riyad Mahrez in Arsenal’s 5-2 win in September.

Cazorla and Coquelin also adeptly patrolled the approaches to Arsenal’s penalty area, reducing the threats of through-balls and shots.

Ramsey and Flamini seem to provide less security. That’s not just a general impression; it’s apparent in the diagrams of defensive interventions and heatmaps. It’s also evident in the statistics, as this “By the Numbers” analysis by 7AMKickoff details.

There are several forces at work here. One is that Ramsey’s attacking instincts take him into the opponent’s third more frequently, leaving him with a longer retreat if Arsenal lose the ball. Another is that he and Flamini switch sides without the ball, so at some points Ramsey is supporting Monreal on the left and at others he’s working with Bellerin on the right. This might inhibit the development of a comfortable defensive relationship. It also has to be said that the 31-year-old Flamini has a narrower area of activity than Coquelin, 24.

The result is that opponents have found more areas to exploit, both centrally and on the flanks.

Implications

Thus far, these variations and imperfections haven’t prevented Arsenal from succeeding. The Gunners now top the table, whereas they sat fourth after drawing with Norwich. Despite what is essentially a 15-player senior squad, Arsenal secured nine points from the 12 available during the festive period, bettered only by Tottenham’s 10 from 12.

We should not forget those bare facts amidst the concerns, criticisms, and dissatisfactions about the aesthetics of the team’s play. At the same time, this analysis might help us understand the manager’s priorities, decisions, and instructions as other challenging matches approach.

Arsenal 1 Newcastle 0: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal labored to a 1-0 victory over Newcastle on Saturday to close the busy festive schedule with three wins in four matches.

In the 72nd minute, Laurent Koscielny slipped behind the Newcastle defense after a corner kick and stabbed home Olivier Giroud's header for the game's lone goal. This scrappy goal--and some heroics from goalkeeper Petr Cech--were enough to secure the Gunners' place at the top of the Premier League table after 20 matches.

Here are three things we learned from the encounter.

Arsenal can win without humming

This was far from a scintillating Arsenal performance. You can understand the reasons: A fourth league match in 13 days with a squad reduced by injury to 15 senior players.

Manager Arsène Wenger admitted his team struggled. "Our legs were heavy, I must say," he told his post-match press conference. He elaborated on the implications: "To not drop points with the way we played today, I think it is very important. It helps the team as well because you go through moments where you don’t play well. The memory of having done that before and still having won the game, helps you to hang on sometimes."

Indeed, it wasn't the first time this season the Gunners have won despite not being at their best. League victories over Everton and Aston Villa soon after tough European fixtures come immediately to mind.

Some will view those performances as concerning; others will say that one mark of champions is to win while playing relatively poorly. What can't be in dispute is the immediate consequence of this victory, three points that give Arsenal two points more than second-place Leicester City at the top of the Premier League table.

And a total of nine points from the 12 available during the holiday period. That's a solid return, as good as any team's over that stretch, pending the outcome of Tottenham's match at Everton late on Sunday.

As Wenger said, "I think we have given a lot during Christmas and we have had games before over Christmas. At the end of the day what do people look at after Christmas? Four games and how many points you have made. Nine points is acceptable or even good."

Petr Cech delivered another victory

After the opening ten minutes, Arsenal posed very little attacking threat until Koscielny's winning goal. Meanwhile, Newcastle grew stronger and had several decent looks at Cech's goal.

In fact, the Magpies produced more shots on goal (six) than did Arsenal (three). Cech parried them all, the most impressive his one-on-one stop of Georginio Wijnaldum in the 48th minute.

Because this save established the conditions for Arsenal to secure all three points, it's worth describing it in some detail.

Newcastle's Ayoze Perez picks up Aaron Ramsey's errant pass at the halfway line, then storms toward the Arsenal penalty area. He draws enough attention from Arsenal's Mathieu Flamini, Per Mertesacker, and Koscielny that Wijnaldum finds himself open to the right of Cech's goal.

Cech anticipates Perez's pass, comes out to close down Wijnaldum, then goes down to smother the shot.

It was similar to his late save on Everton's Gerard Deulofeu that clinched Arsenal's 2-1 victory in October. Overall, Cech produced another performance indicative of a title-winning goalkeeper.

Arsenal's midfield makeover showed some flaws

Saturday's contest saw the return of the midfield pairing of Ramsey and Flamini. It was the duo's fifth league match together since the November injury of Santi Cazorla, and the relationship still displays some imperfections.

Individually, Flamini and Ramsey made substantive and positive contributions. Flamini was the team's leading tackler, succeeding on six of nine attempts according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app. And Ramsey was in many ways the team's offensive hub, completing the highest number of passes on the team and figuring in four of its five top passing combinations.

The problem is that as a unit Flamini and Ramsey don't seem to jibe well. This shortcoming is most evident in the pair's dynamic without the ball. Unlike Cazorla and Francis Coquelin, Flamini and Ramsey sometimes have difficulty coordinating their defensive movement, both with each other and with the defenders behind them.

As a result in this match, Newcastle found considerable space to exploit in the midfield. That was the source of Wijnaldum's early second-half chance, and it was the platform for passes to the flank from which dangerous crosses were launched. A team with better finishing than Newcastle's would have made the Gunners pay for their generous midfield spacing.

Extra time

One might reasonably ask under the circumstances if Calum Chambers is a better midfield partner for Ramsey. Acknowledging that Chambers is a neophyte in the holding role and faced less-than-elite competition in his one outing there against Bournemouth, we did see him gel with Ramsey in an encouraging way.

In particular, Chambers shouldered some of the burden of distribution, completing 53/59 passes against Bournemouth, or 10 percent of the team's total completions, while Ramsey hit on 60 of 70 (13 percent). Against Newcastle, Ramsey's proportion rose to 17 percent (67 of the team's 400 completed passes), while Flamini connected on just 30 (7.5 percent).

Flamini brings considerable experience and an unblemished record at the Emirates Stadium, but energy and flow make a case for Chambers.

Aston Villa 0 Arsenal 2: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal produced a controlled performance that dispatched Aston Villa 2-0 on Sunday in Birmingham.

First-half goals by Olivier Giroud from the penalty spot and Aaron Ramsey from a sweeping counterattack sent Arsenal to the top of the Premier League table, pending the outcome of Monday’s Leicester City-Chelsea encounter.

Here are three things we learned from the match.

Arsenal’s depth can deliver

Arsenal, depleted by injuries and suffering especially the losses of starters Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla, and Francis Coquelin, faced its third test in eight days. The Gunners won all three and outscored their opponents 8-1.

Granted, there will be tougher opposition than Sunderland, Olympiacos, and Aston Villa in the next few weeks, but you can only beat the team that’s facing you. Arsenal have done that and rebounded from a rough November.

Sunday’s accomplishment is nothing to be sniffed at, even though Villa sit at the bottom of the league table. Arsenal returned from Athens in the wee hours of Thursday morning, then had to recover and travel again in advance of the early Sunday kickoff at Villa Park.

This could have created an uncomfortable scenario, as manager Arsène Wenger admitted after the match: “I was a bit anxious today as we had given a lot on Wednesday and came back very, very late on Thursday morning. I know that Villa was fighting to survive and it was maybe a set of important points to win against a team low on confidence.”

Arsenal came through it comfortably and became the only English team to run this kind of European gantlet successfully this week. Of the five Premier League teams playing in European competitions—Manchester City, Manchester United, and Chelsea in the Champions League and Liverpool and Tottenham in the Europa League—only Arsenal won away in Europe in midweek and away in the league at the weekend. Meanwhile, Manchester United lost both its away contests, and Liverpool and Tottenham suffered late in their league matches on Sunday and dropped points.

In this context, the ability and determination of Arsenal to get the result against Aston Villa, particularly with a starting lineup still acclimating to each other and to different individual roles, are evidence of the side’s title potential.

Arsenal’s speed kills

When Arsenal’s attackers see green in front of them and kick into high gear, few defenders can keep up. With Ramsey deployed in the center of midfield, Theo Walcott on one flank, and Mesut Özil in the playmaking position, the Gunners can flash into action and pose an immediate threat.

This dynamic led to both Arsenal goals. For the first, Walcott got past Villa’s lumbering Alan Hutton and gathered a long pass from midfielder Mathieu Flamini. Hutton bumped then grabbed Walcott and sent him to ground in the penalty area. Giroud slotted home from the spot.

The second goal showed the aesthetics and athleticism that the Gunners can offer. Ramsey tackles the ball away from Idressa Gueye about 25 yards from the Arsenal goal. Giroud recovers it, passes quickly to Özil, who finds Walcott just off the center circle on the left. Ramsey’s on his feet by then and at top speed, in a sprinting phalanx with Özil and Giroud.

Walcott takes one touch and sends a beautiful pass through to Özil, who is by this point about 25 yards from the Villa goal. Joleon Lescott, the lone defender still in the play, goes to close down Özil, so the German simply squares it to Ramsey to put into an open net.

Here’s how Ramsey described the passage of play, in his typically understated fashion:

It was nice to be there to finish the move. It was a great move from us. We saw them losing [the ball] as an opportunity to get forward and it was a great ball by Theo in the first place. Then the vision of Ozil to play me in for a simple tap in was delightful as well. I’m delighted that I could finish it off.

These two bursts of speed proved sufficient to secure the victory over Villa. A few subsequent surges, such as Walcott’s run off Giroud in first-half injury time, a foray by substitute Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Ramsey’s incredible dispossession of Lescott all the way on the Villa goal line in second-half injury time, could have added another goal with a bit of luck or composure.

Taken together, these moves show the threat Arsenal’s speed presents. Even without Alexis.

Ramsey returns as a midfield dynamo

Observers of Arsenal have long acknowledged that the central midfield position brings out Ramsey’s individual strengths. His energy, inventiveness, vision, and nose for goal, among other qualities, really emerge in the middle of the park.

Wenger hasn’t always deployed Ramsey there, largely because the overall balance has required his services elsewhere.

Against Villa, the Welshman made a case for basing the balance on him in central midfield.

He started and finished the play for Arsenal’s second goal. He was also the Gunners’ top passer, completing 71 of 78 for a 91 percent rate, according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app. Ramsey was active on defense as well, making more ball recoveries (nine) than any other Arsenal player and succeeding with five of six tackles, both game highs.

It’ll be interesting to see Ramsey’s collaboration with Flamini develop—it isn’t perfect and might not work as well against top teams—and to examine the questions Ramsey’s performances raise for the club’s transfer priorities. Will they, for example, encourage Wenger and his staff to identify other midfielders who can further bring out Ramsey’s strengths? That should generate much discussion into the January transfer window and beyond.

Extra time

Nacho goes solo.

The way the Gunners were set up on Sunday and after 20 minutes against Olympiacos on Wednesday meant that left back Nacho Monreal had hardly any support. Walcott on the left flank doesn’t have the keen defensive instincts of Alexis or Joel Campbell, while the midfield pairing of Ramsey and Flamini doesn’t shift laterally to protect the fullbacks as much as Coquelin and Cazorla do.

As a result, Monreal found himself covering a Villa attacker, often Scott Sinclair and the fullback Hutton. Several dangerous Villa attacks resulted.

Arsenal will likely need to adjust as they prepare to face Manchester City’s more effective strike force next Monday.

Match Preview, Olympiacos v Arsenal: Not the End of the World

At this point, there’s no secret about Arsenal’s objective in this evening’s Champions League encounter at Olympiacos: The Gunners must win by two goals or by any score except 1-0 or 2-1 to advance to the competition’s knockout stage.

Falling short would mean Arsenal wouldn’t advance from the Champions League group stages for the first time in 16 years. It would also cast the club into the Europa League, with its potentially awkward Thursday matches in far-flung locales.

We’re at this point because the Gunners fell to Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia and Olympiacos at home in their first two matches, so any talk of failure should really focus on those two performances. Winning today by the required margin represents a much tougher task.

That’s particularly true because Arsenal will be far from full strength. We won’t rehash the team’s injury problems but will only note that the absence of Alexis, when goals against a compact defense are essential, could be decisive.

In those conditions, it won’t surprise us if the Gunners don’t succeed to the necessary degree. And that outcome won’t be a harbinger of the apocalypse.

Yes, winning is preferable, and this team needs to get back in the habit after its difficult November. Joining Europe’s best in the Champions League knockout stage also bolsters Arsenal’s reputation, its finances, and fan enthusiasm. We’re not arguing any of those points.

But, in and of itself, an exit from the Champions League will not be cataclysmic.

That’s mainly because Arsenal don’t have a realistic chance of winning the Champions League. Even if they receive a kindly draw in the first knockout match and buck the recent trend of losing to that initial opponent, the likelihood of taking out Bayern Munich or Barcelona or even Juventus or PSG over two legs is remote.

The Europa League, on the other hand, is a competition Arsenal might actually win.

Aside from that calculation, there’s a far worse outcome than failure in Athens—additional injuries. If any more first team midfielders or forwards are forced off this evening and then are ruled out for any of the busy festive schedule, Arsenal’s prospects in the Premier League will look grim. That would actually be disastrous, given the tight competition at the top of the table and the Gunners’ legitimate chance of overtaking current leaders Leicester City in the next few weeks.

How much will manager Arsène Wenger account for these implications when he sends his team out this evening? He’s not the type to shirk a challenge or to take a tactical loss; that’s why such matches as the 2004 FA Cup semifinal against Manchester United, when he dipped into his squad to rest several starters for their run at invincibility and history, sticks in the memory.

Wenger has also sounded the charge in his comments before the match, saying “There is one positive thing for us - we know exactly what we have to do. We know that we have to go for it from the start. So let's do that and hopefully we can get through.”

An indication of Wenger’s aggressiveness will be his deployment of Theo Walcott. The forward played 25 minutes against Sunderland on Saturday after more than a month on the sidelines with a calf injury. Does the manager give Walcott the start on the right side of Arsenal’s attack and again send out Olivier Giroud as the team’s center forward? That would be the most attack-minded team Arsenal could field at the moment.

It would also be risky in the short- and medium terms. Walcott won’t provide much defensive cover for right back Hector Bellerin, and fielding both Giroud and Walcott, the only two healthy options to lead the Arsenal line, courts injury danger.

Wenger is a risk taker, but he’s not crazy. He’ll acknowledge the significant downsides and, more than likely, keep one of Giroud or Walcott in reserve.

There’s not much choice to make elsewhere in the Arsenal setup, meaning Mathieu Flamini and Aaron Ramsey will continue their partnership in midfield. Theirs was a significant combination offensively on Saturday—Flamini-to-Ramsey was the team’s top passing connection—but their focus forward left gaps in the defense that Sunderland exploited on the counterattack.

Because Olympiacos must only avoid defeat, it can sit back, stymie Arsenal’s attack, and look to break. Arsenal’s midfielders will therefore need to be more attentive than they were on Saturday.

A more solid midfield will mark an important development for Arsenal’s league campaign as well. Whatever the outcome in Athens, home is where the focus should be.

Players to Watch:

Olympiacos. Esteban Cambiasso. The experienced midfielder will be the man to control the tempo and keep Arsenal’s playmaker Mesut Özil from finding space. If he can shut down the approaches to the Olympiacos penalty area and move the ball to attack quickly, Cambiasso will put the Greek side in a strong position to advance.

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. The Frenchman has been producing the goals, ten in Arsenal’s league and European matches so far this season, and can trouble Olympiacos on set pieces. If Wenger prefers Theo Walcott’s speed and movement against the home side’s defensive setup, Giroud can be a decisive substitute.

Arsenal 3 Sunderland 1: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal's 3-1 victory over Sunderland on Saturday was welcome if not vintage.

Olivier Giroud's headed goal put the Gunners in front midway through the second half, and Aaron Ramsey's scrappy finish in injury time sealed the team's first league win since October 31. The result moved Arsenal back to second place, two points behind surprise leaders Leicester City.

Although the outcome was positive, particularly given the injury-enforced changes in the lineup, the performance will give manager Arsène Wenger, his staff, and the players much to contemplate as they turn to the busy December schedule.

Here are three things for us all to consider based on Saturday's match.

Arsenal's leads seem precarious

For the third consecutive league match, Arsenal scored the first goal. Such early leads would frequently be decisive, because they allow the team with the advantage to focus on thwarting the opponents and launching counterattacks.

Arsenal have not been able to capitalize of late, however. Just as they had done at West Bromwich Albion and Norwich City, the Gunners failed to hold their lead through the half. Joel Campbell's clean strike of Mesut Özil's sublime pass was negated by a Giroud own goal just before halftime.

The specifics were different in each match, but a common thread is defensive instincts that, in the moment, were not precise enough. In this case, Laurent Koscielny's move to nip the ball from Sunderland's Duncan Watmore along the touchline wasn't necessary and proved a split-second late. The subsequent free kick saw Giroud attempt a clearance with the wrong foot, given his relationship to goal; the equalizing goal was the result.

In truth, level terms looked shaky at times on Saturday, too. Arsenal's midfield was bypassed far too easily, leading to clear chances for Sunderland attackers Watmore and Fabio Borini. The new midfield partnership of Mathieu Flamini and Aaron Ramsey didn't support the defense enough, especially when one of the fullbacks had made a foray forward.

Arsenal will need to address this weakness before sterner tests ahead.

Arsenal's difference makers again made the difference

The shakiness didn't undo the Gunners because, in Özil and Petr Cech, the Gunners could call on world-class players to see them through.

In the absence of Santi Cazorla and Alexis Sanchez, Özil took on more responsibility for the Arsenal attack. The German playmaker attempted 107 passes, 15 percent of Arsenal's total on Saturday. As a point of contrast, the previous match in which Arsenal's first choice lineup attempted at least 600 passes was against Stoke City; Özil's attempts made up 10 percent that day. (Stats from FourFourTwo's StatsZone app)

He misfired on 22 passes, a week after failing on just one pass at Norwich City. But his influence was profound. He had the highest number of passes in the attacking third, created five chances for teammates, had more successful dribbles, and suffered the most fouls.

Özil's brilliant assist for Campbell's opener was his 12th in 14 league games this season. That's an absolutely blistering pace. He has twice as many assists as the next highest providers in the league.

At the other end of the pitch, Cech continues to prove his worth. He made three crucial saves, two of what StatsZone calls "big chances" when the attacker has only the keeper to beat. Cech also scrambled away two other potential own goals.

The goalkeeper is shoring up Arsenal's defense and its position near the top of the Premier League table.

Aaron Ramsey's energy was telling

Last week's injury to Santi Cazorla meant that Aaron Ramsey, himself only a week back from an injury layoff, returned to the center of Arsenal's midfield. It's the position he prefers and one in which he thrived during the 2013-14 season.

Despite Ramsey's time on the sidelines--and perhaps despite the sleep deprivation accompanying his new fatherhood--his energy and influence grew as the match went on. His runs overloaded dangerous areas and helped move Sunderland's defenders from their posts.

The assist for Giroud's goal came from one such occasion, when Ramsey shifted left to adjust to left back Nacho Monreal's dribble infield, received Monreal's pass, and found Giroud just in front of Sunderland's Younes Kaboul. He closed the deal by getting into the box and bundling home Calum Chambers's deflected shot.

Overall, Ramsey was almost as involved as Özil in the attacking third, completing 39 of his team-high 114 passes there. He also attempted seven shots and created four chances for teammates.

We'd perhaps like to see a keener focus on the defensive side from Ramsey--he tried and failed his one tackle attempt and made just one interception--but as a second game back from injury, in a different position, with a different partner in midfield, Ramsey's influence was sizable.

Extra time

Arsenal's movement from outside to inside created the first two goals. For the first, Campbell ran outside wingback DeAndre Yedlin and was open for Özil's pass. For the second, Monreal carried the ball from outside to inside, scrambling Sunderland's defense just enough for Ramsey and Giroud to find space.

These attacks from the flank proved more productive than attempts to play through Giroud against Sunderland's three central defenders. It's something to watch as Theo Walcott returns to the side from injury.