Match Preview, Arsenal v Newcastle: The Depth of Presumption

One of the most maddening aspects of following Arsenal is the presumptuousness of its online fan base. So many supporters seem to be able to read the minds of the manager and players; there’s also a know-it-all contingent that enjoys lecturing the club’s representatives on the proper exercise of their professional duties.

As a result, I hesitate to generalize about the priorities, motives, or mindsets of Arsenal executives, manager Arsène Wenger and his staff, or the players.

That said, I think it’s fair to say that Wenger prefers an entertaining style of football, one that encourages the attacking players to express themselves. This is both an aesthetic choice and a business choice: Fans pay for style and goals, and it’s easier to recruit great players by promoting their freedom.

For those reasons, my guess is that the manager is not likely to persist much longer with the approach that produced lackluster performances at Southampton and West Ham. One goal in those two matches, regardless of the opposition’s preference to thwart Arsenal rather than assert themselves offensively, is not the return Wenger wants to deliver.

Expect, then, a different Arsenal when Newcastle visit the Emirates on Saturday.

Again, I don’t presume to read the manager’s mind here or to tell him what to do. God forbid.

Instead, I’m just taking him at his word. For example, reflecting on the match at West Ham, he said, “I will adapt a little bit to the problem we face. I played a back four at West Ham because I thought we’d have a lot of the ball and wanted one more offensive player in the team.”

He also noted that he expected Newcastle to approach the match from a similarly defensive posture, so it’s not crazy to conclude that we could see four at the back again on Saturday.

The question is, who will constitute the attack? The starting center forward (Olivier Giroud), one attacking midfielder (Alex Iwobi), and a central midfielder (Jack Wilshere) were all different against West Ham than they had been against Southampton. Those three have largely been part of the “A-Prime” team that we’ve seen in midweek cup matches.

Although perhaps none of those put in such a poor performance individually on Wednesday, the collection certainly did not amount to a scintillating attack. Sometime star man Alexis is also far from his best—for whatever reason. Would Wenger keep his game-changing qualities on the bench when Arsenal really need a spark?

I’ve no idea what the manager will or should do. But I’m fairly confident that the answer will be interesting.

Trends to Watch

Much of the discomfort Arsenal have experienced this season has come on the road. Performances at the Emirates have been much more pleasing, in general. That despite most visitors setting up to defend in the final third. Can the Gunners leave their frustrations where they happened—away from home? Can they overwhelm Newcastle during one exceptional period and then manage the game from that point? And which group of 11 players, and what playing structure, are most likely to produce those outcomes?

How the Match Plays Out

This topic calls for presumption, but here goes: Arsenal are aggressive from the first whistle, closing down the Magpies and jumping on mistakes. The free flow is back, orchestrated by Mesut Özil, and some of the clinical goalscoring edge returns.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Alexandre Lacazette. Arsenal paid a record fee—and commensurate wages—to acquire the Frenchman from Lyon. It made those investments precisely for conditions like this, when the team is struggling to score. Maybe that’s not fair, but that’s the business.

Newcastle. Isaac Hayden. The former Arsenal prospect will be motivated to show his worth to his former club, and his position at the base of the midfield might allow him to do that. His responsibilities won’t be eased by the absence of partner Jonjo Shelvey.

Arsenal 1 Newcastle 0: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal labored to a 1-0 victory over Newcastle on Saturday to close the busy festive schedule with three wins in four matches.

In the 72nd minute, Laurent Koscielny slipped behind the Newcastle defense after a corner kick and stabbed home Olivier Giroud's header for the game's lone goal. This scrappy goal--and some heroics from goalkeeper Petr Cech--were enough to secure the Gunners' place at the top of the Premier League table after 20 matches.

Here are three things we learned from the encounter.

Arsenal can win without humming

This was far from a scintillating Arsenal performance. You can understand the reasons: A fourth league match in 13 days with a squad reduced by injury to 15 senior players.

Manager Arsène Wenger admitted his team struggled. "Our legs were heavy, I must say," he told his post-match press conference. He elaborated on the implications: "To not drop points with the way we played today, I think it is very important. It helps the team as well because you go through moments where you don’t play well. The memory of having done that before and still having won the game, helps you to hang on sometimes."

Indeed, it wasn't the first time this season the Gunners have won despite not being at their best. League victories over Everton and Aston Villa soon after tough European fixtures come immediately to mind.

Some will view those performances as concerning; others will say that one mark of champions is to win while playing relatively poorly. What can't be in dispute is the immediate consequence of this victory, three points that give Arsenal two points more than second-place Leicester City at the top of the Premier League table.

And a total of nine points from the 12 available during the holiday period. That's a solid return, as good as any team's over that stretch, pending the outcome of Tottenham's match at Everton late on Sunday.

As Wenger said, "I think we have given a lot during Christmas and we have had games before over Christmas. At the end of the day what do people look at after Christmas? Four games and how many points you have made. Nine points is acceptable or even good."

Petr Cech delivered another victory

After the opening ten minutes, Arsenal posed very little attacking threat until Koscielny's winning goal. Meanwhile, Newcastle grew stronger and had several decent looks at Cech's goal.

In fact, the Magpies produced more shots on goal (six) than did Arsenal (three). Cech parried them all, the most impressive his one-on-one stop of Georginio Wijnaldum in the 48th minute.

Because this save established the conditions for Arsenal to secure all three points, it's worth describing it in some detail.

Newcastle's Ayoze Perez picks up Aaron Ramsey's errant pass at the halfway line, then storms toward the Arsenal penalty area. He draws enough attention from Arsenal's Mathieu Flamini, Per Mertesacker, and Koscielny that Wijnaldum finds himself open to the right of Cech's goal.

Cech anticipates Perez's pass, comes out to close down Wijnaldum, then goes down to smother the shot.

It was similar to his late save on Everton's Gerard Deulofeu that clinched Arsenal's 2-1 victory in October. Overall, Cech produced another performance indicative of a title-winning goalkeeper.

Arsenal's midfield makeover showed some flaws

Saturday's contest saw the return of the midfield pairing of Ramsey and Flamini. It was the duo's fifth league match together since the November injury of Santi Cazorla, and the relationship still displays some imperfections.

Individually, Flamini and Ramsey made substantive and positive contributions. Flamini was the team's leading tackler, succeeding on six of nine attempts according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app. And Ramsey was in many ways the team's offensive hub, completing the highest number of passes on the team and figuring in four of its five top passing combinations.

The problem is that as a unit Flamini and Ramsey don't seem to jibe well. This shortcoming is most evident in the pair's dynamic without the ball. Unlike Cazorla and Francis Coquelin, Flamini and Ramsey sometimes have difficulty coordinating their defensive movement, both with each other and with the defenders behind them.

As a result in this match, Newcastle found considerable space to exploit in the midfield. That was the source of Wijnaldum's early second-half chance, and it was the platform for passes to the flank from which dangerous crosses were launched. A team with better finishing than Newcastle's would have made the Gunners pay for their generous midfield spacing.

Extra time

One might reasonably ask under the circumstances if Calum Chambers is a better midfield partner for Ramsey. Acknowledging that Chambers is a neophyte in the holding role and faced less-than-elite competition in his one outing there against Bournemouth, we did see him gel with Ramsey in an encouraging way.

In particular, Chambers shouldered some of the burden of distribution, completing 53/59 passes against Bournemouth, or 10 percent of the team's total completions, while Ramsey hit on 60 of 70 (13 percent). Against Newcastle, Ramsey's proportion rose to 17 percent (67 of the team's 400 completed passes), while Flamini connected on just 30 (7.5 percent).

Flamini brings considerable experience and an unblemished record at the Emirates Stadium, but energy and flow make a case for Chambers.

Newcastle 0 Arsenal 1: Three Things We Learned

Arsenal dominated 10-man Newcastle on Saturday but needed a Fabricio Coloccini own goal to secure a 1-0 victory at St. James’ Park.

A speedy attacking lineup, featuring Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, struggled to provide much more excitement than the more conventional group that had started the scoreless draw with Liverpool. The lack of stimulation largely resulted from Newcastle’s defensive stance after the 15^th-minute red card to striker Aleksandar Mitrovic.

His expulsion and Arsenal’s long numerical advantage make it hard to draw any broad conclusions from the match. Still, we learned a few things about Arsenal; here are three.

Arsenal cede possession only in extraordinary circumstances

In the first 15 minutes of the match, Arsenal posed a real threat, primarily because Newcastle were aggressive offensively. When they weren’t committing fouls in an effort to win back the ball quickly, the home side sent players forward and presented Arsenal with the space to pass and move.

This dynamic changed with the Mitrovic red card. Newcastle then retreated, allowing Arsenal freedom over three quarters of the pitch and clogging the final quarter with ten defenders. Arsenal had two basic choices in this situation:

1. Control possession and try to pick apart the Newcastle defense
2. Cede a bit of the possession and exploit the space Newcastle had left open

It’s not a surprise that Arsenal chose option #1. It capitalizes on the Gunners’ quickness of passing and thought and is the less risky choice.

The problem is that it requires extreme precision because the opposition can foil the attack with proper determination and positioning. Those qualities have proven Newcastle’s strengths early in the season, for example in the excellent rear-guard action against Manchester United at Old Trafford the previous week.

Option #2 would have been a riskier proposition. Imagine the outcry—“We were up a man! Why did we let them have so much of the ball?!?”—especially if Newcastle had used the possession allowed them to threaten the Arsenal goal. For that reason, we witnessed the familiar sight of Arsenal making short passes from side to side around the Newcastle penalty area.

And the exceptions to that rule, such as those we saw at Manchester City and West Ham in the 2014-15 season, will continue to stand out.

Theo Walcott’s days on the right are over

Walcott got the nod over Olivier Giroud as Arsenal’s starting center forward, which manager Arsène Wenger explained had anticipated a different approach from Newcastle:

I expected more space for Theo Walcott. At the start, it looked quite promising, but after 15 minutes, it was a different problem for us. There was no space behind their defenders, the service through their lines was very difficult, and they defended well.

Walcott had two good looks at goal, failed to convert either of them, and did not get involved much otherwise.

But this isn’t about Walcott as a center forward. If he was struggling there, Oxlade-Chamberlain was just as ineffective on the right side of Arsenal’s attack. His touch seemed off, his passes went awry, and his efforts to win back the ball were halfhearted. Oxlade-Chamberlain failed both his take-on attempts, completed only 89 percent of his passes compared with the team’s 92 percent rate, and made only one tackle and one interception.

Under those circumstances, a plausible move would have been to introduce Giroud and move Walcott right. Walcott’s minimal defensive contribution wouldn’t have caused major issues because Newcastle wasn’t attacking much and Hector Bellerin was putting in a solid performance at right back. His quickness and knack for a cross could have opened the Newcastle defense in a different way from the right.

Wenger’s decision, though, was to substitute Giroud for Walcott after 70 minutes. That’s a hint that Walcott’s three-year campaign to play center forward has been successful, but at the price of any involvement on the right side.

No one is making a strong case to lead the Arsenal line

This might be an obvious point about an attacking contingent that’s scored just once in four matches. It’s worth emphasizing, because despite Arsenal’s improved shooting accuracy against Newcastle, it was still found wanting.

After three matches in which only 30 percent of Arsenal’s shots were on goal, the team got nine of 22 on frame in Newcastle. That’s a 40 percent rate of accuracy. Many lacked conviction, though, with Walcott’s two first-half attempts and Giroud’s late lob job standing out as especially weak.

Walcott and Giroud were the top candidates for the striker role entering the season, and neither has made the position his own. Will Wenger keep faith in the pair, give Danny Welbeck a shot when he returns from injury, or move Alexis to the tip of the attack? All seem reasonable options given the trends.

Unless, of course, all evidence to the contrary, Mr. World-Class Striker appears at Arsenal’s London Colney training ground by 1800h GMT on Tuesday, the close of the transfer window.

Extra Time: This is what happens when referees respond properly to bullying tactics

There’s no more irritating sight in sport than a manager fulminating against referees when his own team’s illegal acts are called out. Newcastle’s Steve McLaren is the latest culprit. He gesticulated, grew more red-faced than normal, and later complained to the media about the red card and the six other cautions issued his team by referee Andre Marriner. But any observer not bloodthirsty saw that the deliberate aggression was rightly punished.

Match Preview, Newcastle v. Arsenal: Find a New Tune upon Tyne

Arsenal’s visit to Newcastle United on Saturday will challenge the Gunners to get unblocked in front of goal.

The major similarity between this campaign’s first three matches and previous seasons’ starts has been the Gunners' ineffectiveness in front of goal. In general, Arsenal have been much more active offensively, taking 61 shots. (As 7AM Kickoff points out here, Arsenal have the highest shot total of any club in a top-five European league.)

A substantial majority of those shots (41) has come from within the opposition penalty area; that’s more dangerous shooting than Arsenal have produced during the first three matches of any of the past five seasons, according to the FourFourTwo StatsZone app. The overall result has been 18 shots on goal in three matches, a high absolute number by the standards of the past five seasons' starts.

The problem is Arsenal’s low proportion of shots on frame. By managing just 30 percent of shots on goal in its first three matches, the team has, for the fifth time in the past six seasons, failed to put more than 35 percent of its shots on target. By contrast, over the full 2014-15 season, Arsenal put 37 of its shots on goal.

Newcastle is a tricky opponent under these circumstances. The Magpies have allowed 53 shots in three matches, with 18 of those (34 percent) on goal; they’ve blocked 19 shots (36 percent), including eight last weekend when they held Manchester United to a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford.

Given this dynamic, Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger may make some changes to his attacking lineup. He has the speedy options of Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to unsettle the Newcastle defense, which has been already troubled by the quickness of Swansea’s Jefferson Montero and Manchester United’s Memphis DePay.

Wenger could also add some zest from the midfield in recognition that Newcastle have not presented much of a scoring threat: Their 25 shots rank lowest in the Premier League. This might tempt Wenger to move Aaron Ramsey from his spot upfield into one of the central midfield positions.

The riskiness of that decision depends in large part on the health of Arsenal’s two first-choice center backs. At last report, Per Mertesacker remained ill, and Laurent Koscielny faced a fitness test on his back. Some accounts suggest that Koscielny trained with the first team on Friday and should replace Calum Chambers in Arsenal’s lineup at Newcastle.

Would that provide enough stability for Wenger to break up the central midfield pair of Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla?

Or, perhaps more to the point, does Mertesacker’s continued absence dictate the retention of Cazorla to aid Arsenal’s transition from defense to attack? Without Mertesacker’s clever passing, Arsenal probably need Cazorla’s trickery to move quickly upfield.

But Cazorla doesn’t offer the threat on goal that Ramsey does from the center of midfield. Cazorla’s two shots on goal in six attempts in the first three matches are in line with the team’s ineffective rate thus far.

Whatever players Wenger sends out early Saturday, bucking the trend and (re)discovering the knack in front of goal will be the charge. Another scoreless display will intensify the questions.