Arsenal need total focus on 90 minutes of football against West Bromwich Albion early Saturday.
Since
the Gunners’ Champions League exit to Bayern Munich, manager Arsène
Wenger’s future has dominated the discourse. One example: The manager’s
press conference before the FA Cup quarterfinal against Lincoln City did
not feature one question about the match itself. The only topic was
Wenger’s career plan.
This did a huge disservice to Lincoln City, of course. It also perpetuated the boring, binary debate among Arsenal supporters.
In
all likelihood, Arsenal’s players aren’t bothered with this contention.
They have 12 league matches and an FA Cup semifinal date to concentrate
on. Ignoring the role each plays in the overall assessment of the
season could be critical to success.
The first of these fixtures
certainly requires its own level of attention. West Brom manager Tony
Pulis knows how to play the foil to Arsenal, configuring his teams to
nullify skill on the ball as a matter of course.
The Baggies
succeeded in the reverse fixture, holding Arsenal scoreless until a late
header by Oliver Giroud carried the day for the Gunners.
How do Arsenal cope tactically with that approach, especially given confidence is not at the brim these days?
In
particular, will Wenger pursue the three-man midfield he has introduced
in recent weeks? The trio of Granit Xhaka, Aaron Ramsey, and Alex
Oxlade-Chamberlain provided an interesting and effective departure from
the longtime 4-2-3-1 system.
Against Lincoln City,
Oxlade-Chamberlain’s injury prompted the reintroduction of Mesut Özil to
the side. The German, returning from illness and suffering poor form
since the turn of the year, seems the key figure of the 4-2-3-1. It’s
geared to allowing him playmaking freedom with minimal defensive
responsibilities.
But his return did not prompt the team to revert
to 4-2-3-1. Instead, he played deeper in the midfield trio and asserted
himself physically against the tiring Imps. Özil has also enjoyed great
success with the German national team as part of an attacking trio.
The
advantage of either Özil position for Arsenal is a more cohesive
midfield. Offensively, the flow improves because more routes forward
open; defensively, Arsenal are less vulnerable to counterattacks.
Both
dynamics will be important against West Brom. The Baggies will try to
congest the interior approaches to their final third and to force
Arsenal wide. They’ll be confident their large defenders can cope with
any crosses from there. Lincoln executed a similar approach with some
success in the first half last weekend.
When the Gunners switch
the play quickly, though, defenders have to scramble. Ramsey and Alexis
should be ideally placed to exploit the resulting spaces, and Xhaka and
Özil possess the skill and vision to find them.
Vision and
implementation on that plane—rather than at the corporate level or on
the level of the manager’s future—should be all anyone cares about.
Key Matchup
Mesut
Özil against Claudio Yacob. Arsenal will have the bulk of possession in
this match. The outcome will hinge on what the Gunners accomplish with
that possession. Özil has seemed pedestrian in 2017 and needs to spark
into form for the last 12 league matches. He’ll have to avoid the
attentions of West Brom’s pesky Yacob to start that resurgence at the
Hawthorns.
Where to Worry
No
mystery here—set pieces. That’s West Brom’s main offensive threat. The
Baggies have scored 17 of their 36 goals (47 percent) in dead-ball
scenarios. Their 12 goals from corners are far and away the highest of
any Premier League team. (Stats from Opta via Squawka.com)
Match Verdict
West
Brom will make Arsenal labor, as always. Pulis’s defenses will be
difficult to break down, but as Arsenal increase the tempo, West Brom
will tire. A lapse in concentration will provide the opening, and
Arsenal will rely on a clinical finish to carry the day.
Players to Watch
Arsenal. Danny Welbeck.
This seems like a perfect environment for Welbeck. He has the speed to
run away from West Brom’s hulking defenders and the strength to take
them on if necessary.
West Brom. Ben Foster. The
only reason West Brom didn’t get swamped at the Emirates was Foster’s
performance in goal. Another stellar outing from him would deepen
Arsenal’s frustrations.
Arsenal faces an odd scenario as it closes its Premier League campaign against West Bromwich Albion Sunday at Emirates Stadium.
It's
comfortable but not totally secure in a third-place league finish,
which would allow the Gunners to avoid a Champions League qualifier in
August. Comfortable thanks to a three-point advantage over Manchester
United; not totally secure because two bizarre results, say a 3-0
Arsenal loss and a 5-0 United win at Hull, would see United pip Arsenal
for third on goal differential.
Then there's the matter of the FA
Cup Final against Aston Villa six days later. Manager Arsène Wenger will
likely decide Sunday's personnel to set the stage for a top performance
from his first-choice team in the cup final. Given that many of those
preferred players have looked less than energetic in Arsenal's last
three matches, Wenger has to weigh giving them a rest against the risks
of upsetting the team's chemistry and perpetuating the team's
indifferent recent form.
After a run of eight consecutive wins
between February and April, the Gunners have won only one of their last
five matches. In the three of those matches, Arsenal failed to score at
home against opposition organized to foil the Arsenal attack.
That's
standard operating procedure for West Brom manager Tony Pulis, who has
saved another team from relegation by instilling discipline in defense.
It will therefore come as no surprise on Sunday when the Baggies allow
the Gunners possession, force them into crowded central areas, hope for a
moment of brilliance from leading man Saido Berahino, or try to catch
the Gunners napping on a set play.
These principles have paid off
in West Brom's recent matches. The Baggies are unbeaten in their last
five, including wins over champions Chelsea on Monday and Manchester
United at Old Trafford.
These results--and the manner West Brom
have achieved them--will give Wenger, his staff, and his players plenty
to contemplate. In particular, West Brom pose a significant aerial
threat: 15 goals from headers is tied with West Ham for most in the
league. Meanwhile, Arsenal have conceded the league's largest proportion
of goals from headers (35 percent).
Given all these dynamics,
Wenger's team selection will be interesting. He only introduced two new
starters against Sunderland on Wednesday--left back Kieran Gibbs for
Nacho Monreal and midfielder Jack Wilshere for Francis Coquelin--but
those changes were not the ones most observers expected. Defender
Laurent Koscielny, midfielder Santi Cazorla, and forwards Alexis Sanchez
and Olivier Giroud all seemed likelier candidates for a game off.
Should
we expect all four to get a break on Sunday? Wenger has suggested not.
"Will I rest one or two players?" he asked in his pre-match press
conference. "Certainly." But he didn't say he'll make wholesale changes
to inject energy.
Now, Wenger probably wouldn't admit plans for
major lineup turnover. The last time he made more than two outfield
changes between league matches was between the early February loss at
Tottenham and the home victory over Leicester three days later.
The
selections against Leicester might, in fact, help us anticipate some
changes for Sunday's match. Theo Walcott and Tomas Rosicky have a solid
chance of repeating their starting appearances. Both came on as
substitutes against Sunderland on Wednesday, when they introduced
quickness and drive to the Arsenal attack. Expect them to do something
similar from the outset against West Brom.
We might also see
Gabriel replace one of the two center halves. The Brazilian's
aggressiveness in the air and alertness to counterattacks would help
offset West Brom's two major threats. The aerial threat might also
encourage Wenger to prefer the more imposing Calum Chambers to Hector
Bellerin at right back.
Also of interest is the choice in goal. In last season's final match
against Norwich City, Lukasz Fabianski got the nod in preparation for
his start in the FA Cup Final. Will similar thinking give Wojciech
Szczesny the start on Sunday?
Whatever the selection, energy and tempo
should be the priorities. Arsenal have the talent to end the campaign
successfully; the questions are about imagination, vigor, and will. West
Brom will present a test of all three.
