Match Preview, Arsenal v Bayern Munich: I Know You Rider

The sun will shine on my back door someday,
March wind will blow all my troubles away.

The American blues song “I Know You Rider” says a lot about Arsenal Football Club in advance of Tuesday’s Champions League match with Bayern Munich.

The number, performed by such groups as the Grateful Dead and Hot Tuna, deftly moves from despair to optimism.

In its opening verse, the storyteller predicts that the listener “gonna miss me when I’m gone.” It’s hard not to attribute that sentiment to the embattled Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger. As has been analyzed on this site and elsewhere, the Frenchman is such an integral part of the club’s culture and structure that his absence will force a transformation.

The song’s verses unfold differently depending on the artist and the performance. By the time they close, they express a hopeful sentiment. That the cares, blues, troubles will, come some March, disappear.

We struggle to see that outcome for Arsenal now amidst the gloom of four defeats in six matches and the uncertainty clouding the futures of Wenger and his two stars Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Özil.

But the hope has to be there somewhere. Whether it lies in the club’s longer trajectory or in expectation of one match, the sane among us all possess some kind of hope. Otherwise, we would stop caring; we’d stop paying attention; we’d find other pastimes.

Masochism or even quest for validation—among those who are looking to prove they’re smarter and/or more committed than others—are sustainable for only so long.

And so to the matter of Bayern. In the binary operation of knockout competition, this is a meaningless encounter. The German giants destroyed the Gunners, 5-1, three weeks ago, and barring some supernatural intervention, Arsenal are not going to better that result and advance to the Champions League quarterfinal.

The way things look—Bayern having put eight goals past Hamburg at the weekend, Arsenal continuing to look rudderless in a 3-1 loss at Liverpool—a result similar to the first leg’s doesn’t seem far-fetched.

Yet we’ll pay attention.

Perhaps hints of something different will emerge. A revised tactical approach. Opportunities for different players. Focus. Professional pride.

Any of those changes to the dynamic will be interesting. They might also set the team up for better days ahead.

Like a trip to Wembley for an FA Cup semifinal. Saturday’s quarterfinal visit of non-league Lincoln City provides a legitimate chance at that outcome.

Or Premier League matches to come with Tottenham, Manchester City, and Manchester United. Make the most of all those occasions, and the Gunners tell a different, less tragic, story of the 2016-17 season.

Because all those conclusions remain possible, we press on.

Key Matchup

Arsenal’s players against their recent performances. The direction is negative; few would dispute that. Arresting that slide against one of the three or four most powerful teams in the world is a daunting task. But these are highly paid professionals who got where they are through talent and persistent motivation. Summoning those qualities against this opposition could be effective therapy.

Where to Worry

Could another absolute hiding make things worse? I don’t know.

Match Verdict

Even if manager Carlo Ancelotti changes his lineup, Bayern will dominate the ball. And win the tie. The major unknown is whether Arsenal will discover any answers to their recent troubles.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Aaron Ramsey. Can the Welshman get back into form quickly and help the Arsenal midfield function better? It’s a lot to ask, especially against this opposition. But the rest of Arsenal’s season might depend on it.

Bayern Munich. Franck Ribéry. Because if you have to watch one Bayern player, you might as well content yourself in the knowledge that Arsenal don’t employ someone this unattractive.

Bayern Munich 5 Arsenal 1: Three Things We Learned

Bayern Munich swamped Arsenal 5-1 on Wednesday, putting the Gunners’ hopes of qualifying for the Champions League knockout phase for the 16^th consecutive season in considerable doubt.

With Bayern’s dominant, three-goal first half, this result was foregone by halftime. The night’s meaningful question was what would happen in Athens, where Olympiacos trailed Dinamo Zagreb and gave the Gunners hope that they might still control their European destiny.

Olympiacos scored late to win, though, meaning Arsenal must win its final two matches, including at least a two-goal win on the group stage’s last night in Athens, and trust Bayern to beat the Greek team, to move on.

That’s the big conclusion of the night. Here are three other things we learned.

Arsène Wenger has the Premier League in his sights

The Arsenal manager invariably speaks about his focus on the next game and how it’s the most important. There was a hint of something else prior to this match, though.

Wenger kept star defenders Laurent Koscielny and Hector Bellerin out of Wednesday’s action, allowing them to recover from “small” injuries in advance of a major Premier League test against Tottenham on Sunday.

That decision is worth noting.

It suggests the manager and his staff sense an opportunity to compete for the league title and that they’re willing to put the European campaign aside to enhance that domestic opportunity. Doing so requires wisdom and restraint, particularly because Wenger has long coveted the top European trophy.

No doubt he expected a less damning result in Munich, but as long as he and his players can put it in the vault, this continental setback won’t be any more consequential for their league prospects than was the 3-2 loss to Olympiacos. We shouldn’t forget that that defeat immediately preceded Arsenal’s 3-0 destruction of Manchester United.

The first goal was the killer

The early moments of the game were actually promising for Arsenal. The Gunners had a shot in anger in the opening minute, passed crisply when they had the ball, and forced Bayern into shots from distance.

Hope of another upset was largely snuffed out by Robert Lewandowski’s 10^th-minute header. The Polish striker slipped the attentions of Gabriel, who was alone among the Arsenal back line in dropping deep when Thiago had the ball near the right corner of Arsenal’s penalty area. Lewandowski’s well-placed effort gave Arsenal goalkeeper Petr Cech no chance.

This early goal meant Arsenal could not absorb the Bayern pressure as the Gunners had so successfully done two weeks ago. They had to seek a tying goal, creating the space and time on the ball that Bayern was designed to exploit. The only question was how ruthlessly they would do so.

Having lost to Arsenal, the German giants weren’t inclined to let up. That intensity—plus Arsenal’s sub-par defensive effort and ill fortune with officiating—sealed the Gunners fate on the day.

Arsenal’s first-choice defense is a well-oiled machine

Replacing Bellerin with Mathieu Debuchy and Koscielny with Gabriel shrank Arsenal’s margin of error. Indeed, the changes caused enough instability for Bayern’s talent to thrive.

A poorly synchronized back line left Lewandowski onside for the opening goal, and Debuchy’s tendency to drift into the center gave Bayern’s dangerous wide men the run of their left flank. The Frenchman wasn’t even effective at clogging the middle, failing to clear a pass that then fell to Thomas Müller, who fired off Per Mertesacker and into the net for Bayern’s second goal.

On Arsenal’s left, Bayern finally found a way to isolate left back Nacho Monreal, using runners from midfield to occupy Arsenal’s central midfielders Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla. This often left Monreal trying to cover two men on his own, Philipp Lahm and Müller or substitute Arjen Robben, because left forward Alexis was understandably focused on attacking. As a result, Bayern always had an outlet and frequently produced uncontested passes into more dangerous areas.

It was quite a contrast from the defensive performances Arsenal’s preferred lineup has delivered this season. The unit of Cech, Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, and Monreal has won all of its matches while conceding just three goals, one at Crystal Palace and two at Leicester City. Crucially, though, the group has played together in just five of Arsenal’s 17 matches in the Premier League, Champions League, and Capital One Cup.

The ability to field that unit consistently might well determine Arsenal’s fortunes in the Premier League.

Extra time

Fair play to Mathieu Debuchy and Olivier Giroud, who kept plugging despite the obvious outcome of this match. Debuchy scampered back to rob Robben of a goal after the Dutchman had rounded Cech, and Giroud produced an exquisite chest control and lashing finish. Such moments were all the more noticeable because they were rare.

Champions League Match Preview, Bayern Munich v Arsenal: Use Their Anger Against Them

Arsenal confront an apparently enraged Bayern Munich in Germany on Matchday Four of the UEFA Champions League.

The Gunners’ 2-0 win over the previously omnipotent side two weeks ago seems to have stirred up Pep Guardiola’s charges. Star striker Robert Lewandowski, who had two goal-bound shots saved by Arsenal’s Petr Cech at the Emirates, said, “We desperately need the points. We have to show who is the better team.”

Bayern’s motivation isn’t lost on Arsenal. According to Per Mertesacker, who likely enjoys some back-channel communications with several compatriots in the Bavarian side, “They will be angry I guess. We are the first team who really challenged them, so they will be on the ball and try to show that they are back and better than us.” (Arsenal.com)

There’s no question of Bayern’s quality. They’re the Bundesliga’s juggernaut and one of the two best teams in Europe. Guardiola has skillfully mixed the experience of players like Philipp Lahm and Xabi Alonso with the guile of Douglas Costa and Arjen Robben and the firepower of Thomas Müller and Lewandowki.

Arsenal witnessed the threat in Matchday Three, but the Gunners did not cower. Bayern’s skill in and dominance of possession failed to carry the day. That’s largely because Arsenal stayed disciplined in defense, forced Bayern to pass around the perimeter, and intervened only at the most opportune moments.

It’s likely to be the same approach at the Allianz Arena, perhaps with a slight variation. If Bayern let too much emotion affect their style and decisions, they’ll be vulnerable to a martial arts-style response from Arsenal. Frustrate them for another period of time, and they might be more prone to mistakes. Particularly on set pieces.

Arsenal also can’t allow changes in personnel to affect the proceedings too much. A different Gunner will have to summon the energy and intelligence of Aaron Ramsey on the right side of midfield. That’s especially important given the wide threat posed by Costa and Robben, who missed the London leg due to injury.

Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger may rejigger the midfield, bringing in Mathieu Flamini as part of a 4-3-3 formation, but a more likely choice will be to replace Ramsey with Joel Campbell. The Costa Rican had an excellent Premier League debut at Swansea on Saturday, scoring the team’s third goal and displaying a keen will for defending. He’ll have to match that performance—if not improve it—against Bayern.

As if facing Bayern’s wide men weren’t enough of a challenge, Campbell will have to manage the threat with a different right back. Due to Hector Bellerin’s groin injury, Mathieu Debuchy will get the start. The French international has the pedigree to compete in such a headline game; the question is his form. His performances so far this season, including in last week’s Capital One Cup loss at Sheffield Wednesday, have been rusty and unimpressive, to put it charitably. For Arsenal to stay in this contest, Debuchy will have to rise to a very big occasion.

At stake is the Gunners’ control over their own Champions League fate. Escaping Munich with a draw would mean Arsenal could qualify for the knockout phase with wins in their final two matches, regardless of the other results. A win would put them in even better position, level on points with Bayern and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.

Losing tonight, though, would hand the initiative to Olympiacos. If the Greek team beats Dinamo Zagreb in Athens this evening, a draw against Bayern in two weeks would secure passage to the knockout stage and destroy Arsenal’s chances of progressing.

There’s still a lot of football to be played and therefore a variety of possible outcomes in the competition. But those outcomes will look a lot more promising if Arsenal avoid losing this evening.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal: Olivier Giroud. Arsenal’s center forward changed the complexion of the match at the Emirates, winning the physical battles with Bayern’s central defenders and scoring the decisive goal. The Frenchman, who has six goals in his last six matches for club and country, has also scored at the Allianz Arena before. Another opportunistic goal would strengthen the Gunners immeasurably.
Bayern Munich: Arjen Robben. You can’t take your eyes off that pointy, bald head anyway, so you might as well watch the Dutchman. Although everyone knows his signature move, he’s so quick and wily he’s still difficult to stop. Debuchy and/or Nacho Monreal, and importantly, the assistance they get from Arsenal’s midfielders and forwards, will be sorely tested.

Arsenal 2 Bayern Munich 0: Three Things We Learned

On an incredible night at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal overcame Bayern Munich 2-0, recharging the Gunners’ UEFA Champions League campaign with a victory over the team anointed best in the world.

A scrappy set-piece goal by substitute Olivier Giroud and a stoppage-time clincher by Mesut Özil, assisted by the irrepressible Hector Bellerin, undid Bayern and made imaginable another qualification for the competition’s knockout phase. That prospect seemed remote prior to Tuesday.

Calming down enough to analyze a such an emotional match takes effort, but here are three things we think we learned from the encounter.

This Arsenal team can produce the memories

Supporters follow sport for scenarios like this: Arsenal faced a mighty opponent in a headline affair, performed solidly but without much of its trademark creativity for much of the match, then struck when the opportunities arose.

This is what so many of us look for on European nights, recognizing that the Gunners may not win the competition in the end but hoping for transcendent performances to remember. The turnaround of fortunes—the likes of which Arsenal have certainly experienced from the other side—made the magic all the more memorable.

If you can’t take a few days to enjoy that, well, you need a different pastime.

It was a different plotline from the other indelible memory of the season so far, the 3-0 dismantling of Manchester United. Unlike in that contest, Arsenal did not carry the play against Bayern. The quality of the passing, the quickness of thought and movement, the incomparable skill were not what won the day.

Instead, the Gunners were unified, determined, organized but flexible, and opportunistic. They seized the game's three decisive moments—Petr Cech’s save on the heretofore unstoppable Robert Lewandowski, Giroud’s headlong commitment in case Bayern suffered a defensive lapse, and Bellerin’s late steal, surge, and perfect pass to Özil. In the process, they generated happiness among supporters, confidence for themselves, and respect from opponents and neutrals.

No matter what happens in Munich or Athens, where qualification will likely be decided, we’ll always have the Emirates on 20 October.

This Arsenal defense is a match-winner

Tuesday's success required a comprehensive defensive performance. And that's what Arsenal delivered.

The Gunners controlled the dangerous spaces throughout the match and rendered sterile Bayern's advantage in possession. As a result, Arsenal's defensive statistics were not particularly impressive: 24 tackles, 19 interceptions, 18 clearances. (Numbers from Opta via FourFourTwo's StatsZone app)

But eight blocked shots were evidence of Arsenal's commitment and contributed to Bayern's laboring to get a clear sight of goal. The Bavarian side enjoyed just two "Big Chances," in the parlance of the StatsZone app, Lewandowski's effort midway through the second half and Thiago's pointblank shot early on. Cech was equal to the task both times.

Meanwhile, despite making just one pass for every three made by Bayern, Arsenal created four big chances and scored two of them.

Bayern looked dangerous many times, particularly left winger Douglas Costa in the first half. But when Costa escaped Bellerin, an Arsenal player was there to intercept the pass or snuff out the dribble.

On Arsenal's left, Bayern tried various approaches and personnel against Nacho Monreal. None succeeded. Thomas Müller, the lethal forward, got so little out of his battle with Monreal that he surrendered his spot on the right to Arturo Vidal, whom Monreal controlled as well. Efforts to outnumber the Gunners on that flank similarly came to nothing.

In the center, Per Mertesacker controlled the airways and Laurent Koscielny made several critical interventions as Lewandowski threatened. Just ahead of them, Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla attended to the dangers in Bayern's buildup play.

Those attentions did not always prove adequate, but Cech was an impregnable last line of defense, stopping all six shots Bayern put on goal.

Arsène Wenger pulled all the right levers

The Arsenal manager sent out his charges with clear directions: Control the space, not the ball. Try to frustrate Bayern. Then hit on the counterattack.

When the initial formation, with Alexis on the left and Özil farther forward, showed some vulnerabilities, the setup shifted. Alexis moved upfield closer to Theo Walcott, Özil retreated to work with Monreal on the left, and Arsenal took on a deep-lying 4-4-2 shape.

As Wenger explained, "When we were playing halfway, they opened us up too much, so I decided to drop Ozil a bit deeper and to make it tight around the box and catch them on the break because we have the pace to do it and to find some space with the game going on."

This freed Alexis, Arsenal's danger man, from the challenging defensive situation on Arsenal's left, where Müller, Thiago, and right back Philipp Lahm tried without success to overwhelm Monreal, and allowed the Chilean to pose an additional threat to Bayern's high defensive line.

Worn down by Arsenal's speed, perhaps, Bayern's central defenders had difficulty coping with the physical presence of Giroud when he replaced Walcott in the 74th minute. Three minutes later, Giroud drew a foul, fought his way through the defensive line, and capitalized when goalkeeper Manuel Neuer failed to claim Cazorla's free kick.

Extra time

Giroud is a game-changer. He delivered his fourth goal in his last six substitute appearances. He could have had another later but wasn't able to generate the necessary power to his free header. The Frenchman was also an outlet for Arsenal's back line for the 17 minutes in the lead and shored up Arsenal's set-piece defending during the final stretch of this famous victory.