When Arsenal host FC Basel in the Champions League on Tuesday, the
Gunners can establish a strong position in their Champions League group
and continue their good form.
The Match Day One draw in Paris, on
paper the most difficult of Arsenal’s group stage matches, gives the
team a slight advantage in its qualifying campaign. Three home wins all
but guarantee progress to the knockout phase.
A positive result
would also extend the promising trend the Gunners have set since their
opening-day league loss to Liverpool. They’re on a seven-match unbeaten
run with a relatively attractive schedule until early November.
Basel
will not be an easy target—the Swiss side has slain English giants in
the past. They have also dominated the Swiss Super League, having won
nine of nine matches while conceding just seven goals.
With respect, that competition will have not had the quality of Arsenal.
That’s
the case even though we can expect manager Arsène Wenger to adjust his
starting XI. Midfielder Francis Coquelin will miss out, having
re-injured his right knee on Saturday. That means a start for Granit
Xhaka against his former club.
Although Wenger did not rotate his
side against Paris-Saint Germain, this looks like an opportunity to
deploy some members of his strong squad. Based on their performances
against Nottingham Forest in the League Cup, Kieran Gibbs, Mohamed
Elneny, and Lucas Perez merit consideration.
Will Wenger go for
this scale of change in a Champions League match? It would break from
his usual practice, but four goals by the second string at Nottingham
Forest point to a wealth of worthy attacking options.
The incoming
quartet would bring a slightly different style of play from that of the
vanquishers of Chelsea. A little less aggression and a little more flow
in midfield, primarily. Lucas and Alexis Sanchez interchanging in
attack could also cause problems for a Basel defense unaccustomed to
their levels of speed and tenacity.
Of course, the XI Wenger sent
out against Chelsea, with just Xhaka in for Coquelin, would be just as
daunting a proposition for the visitors.
Key Matchup
Mesut
Özil against Taulant Xhaka. Arsenal’s playmaker ran the show against
Chelsea. His skills and smarts pose a constant menace to opposition
defenders. Xhaka, facing his brother’s new team, will have to marshal
his midfield teammates to minimize the space Özil can exploit.
Where to Worry
Arsenal’s
biggest concern should be overconfidence. The Gunners look convincing
but can’t take any match for granted. They’ll need to bring comparable
intensity and swiftness of thought to this encounter, even if on paper
the opposition is weaker. Because we’ve seen the consequences of not
doing that in the past.
Match Verdict
I’m
not entirely convinced by the momentum factor in football; I’ve never
seen statistics to support the narrative of a team on a roll. So in this
case, the focus, form, and quality Arsenal can showcase in 18 players
will most likely be too much for Basel.
Players to Watch
Arsenal. Granit Xhaka.
Arsenal’s Swiss acquisition will have a chance to run this match from
deep in the midfield. He launches attacks in a different way than
Coquelin does—incisive passing vs. aggressive interception—and it will
be interesting to watch Arsenal’s attack flow with Xhaka in charge.
Basel. Seydou Doumbia.
Basel’s Ivorian striker, who has been rotated like Swiss clockwork with
target man Marc Janko, will likely get the call with his teammate
injured. Doumbia has six league goals in eight league appearances.
Arsenal’s initial match of the Champions League campaign in Paris on Tuesday carries both peril and potential.
On
paper, it’s the toughest of the Gunners’ group stage encounters. The
runaway Ligue 1 champions are the top seed and recent four-time
quarterfinalists in this competition. Arsenal also have a habit of
starting the Champions League slowly, if not stupidly, losing the last
two openers.
You wouldn’t fancy a reversal of that trend against
one of Europe’s free-spending clubs. But other factors may weigh in
Arsenal’s favor this time.
The biggest advantage is disarray at
PSG. The club cashiered Laurent Blanc at the end of last season and
hired Unai Emery from Seville, where he won an unprecedented three
consecutive Europa League titles. The two managers’ philosophies differ,
and a roster largely of Blanc’s making hasn’t easily adapted.
The
Parisians also lost their most potent offensive threat, striker Zlatan
Ibrahimovic. Without their Swedish talisman, PSG have so far lacked a
player capable of rescuing them from pedestrian displays. They’ve
labored in three of four Ligue 1 matches, including Friday’s home draw
with Saint-Etienne.
Part of those struggles can be attributed to
defensive injuries. Team captain Thiago Silva has been out; Maxwell,
Serge Aurier, and Layvin Kurzawa have also missed time. With the exits
of David Luiz and Gregory Van Der Wiel, PSG had only one experienced
defender, Marquinos, by the end of the Saint-Etienne match.
Will
Arsenal’s offensive threat be enough to capitalize? In eight halves of
league play, the Gunners seemed fluid in one, the first half at Watford.
They mustered just one non-penalty shot on target in Saturday’s 2-1
victory over Southampton. That came from center back Laurent Koscielny, a
bicycle-kick equalizer.
In truth, though, manager Arsène Wenger
hasn’t yet fielded his first-choice attacking unit. Center forward
Olivier Giroud has only appeared as a substitute, playmaker Mesut Özil
had limited action in the season’s first two matches, and Alexis played
just a half-hour on Saturday.
If Granit Xhaka and Aaron Ramsey are
also candidates for the first XI, we’d have to say the Gunners haven’t
deployed their firepower in full.
Whether Wenger decides to open
up in Paris is an intriguing question. When Arsenal have had poor
results in Europe, the cause has most often been unwise aggression. The
Gunners have been undone by continentals’ tactical savvy and efficient
finishing. So there’s a case for a more circumspect approach here.
That
would include enhanced positional awareness and flow in the midfield.
PSG’s biggest strength, developed under Blanc, is in the center of the
park. Marco Veratti, Blaise Matuidi, Thiago Motta, and Adrien Rabiot are
all smooth conductors of play. It wouldn’t be a surprise for Wenger to
choose Xhaka and Mohammed Elneny as a partnership to try to counter PSG
there.
Their relative freshness—and that of their teammates
farther forward--gives the manager flexibility he’s rarely enjoyed. As
he remarked in his pre-match press conference, “I haven’t decided. The
players don’t know the team.”
How he clarifies his thinking will be telling.
Key Matchup
Nacho
Monreal against Lucas Moura. What dynamism PSG have generated thus far
has come from the Brazilian winger. He’s a crafty presence, shown by the
average of 4.1 dribbles he’s attempted every 90 minutes he’s played.
Monreal held up well as Southampton tried to isolate him. He’ll need a
similar performance and more support against Lucas.
Where to Worry
Arsenal’s
midfield left too many gaps against Southampton, especially in the
first 20 minutes. The Gunners can’t allow their hosts’ slick passers
time to find their forwards, even if the likes of Edison Cavani and
Angel Di María have been less than efficient in front of goal.
Match Verdict
Midfield
skill will be on display, but the sides’ strengths in this area will
likely cancel each other out. Loose defending permits a goal each.
Arsenal emerges with a draw in its toughest group match.
Players to Watch
Arsenal. Olivier Giroud.
The Frenchman has an opportunity to silence some of his homeland
critics. He’ll face a PSG backline unsettled by injury and unused to his
brand of physical play.
PSG. Angel Di María. The Argentine is PSG’s creative mind. He’s capable of magical moments off the dribble, with the pass, and on free kicks.
After an eventful international break, Arsenal host Southampton on
Saturday. It will be the first home match since the ignominious,
season-opening loss to Liverpool. That seems long ago.
The
Emirates Stadium will see a substantially different squad this weekend.
Not only are the team’s top players—Alexis, Mesut Özil, Laurent
Koscielny—now ready for action, they will be joined by recent arrivals
Shkodran Mustafi and Lucas Pérez.
As a result, manager Arsène
Wenger has a deeper pool of talent and experience to plumb for his
starting lineup. Wenger admitted as much in his pre-match press
conference, saying “It’s the first time in a long time that I’ve had a team of what you can call men ready to compete.”
Southampton will, as always, test how ready these Gunners are.
Although
three league matches aren’t enough to determine patterns of play and
statistical trends, it does seem that new Saints manager Claude Puel is
departing from the style of his predecessor Ronald Koeman. As Adrian
Clarke explains in his “Chalkboard” segment on the Official Arsenal Weekly Podcast,
Puel has installed a 4-4-2 formation with a midfield diamond of Oriol
Romeu, Steven Davis, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, and Dusan Tadic.
This
presents two opportunities to Arsenal. The Gunners can gain numerical
superiority in the midfield and weave their way around their
counterparts, using the skill and vision of Granit Xhaka, Santi Cazorla,
and Özil to full effect. They can also exploit openings created when
Southampton’s fullbacks advance to provide width to the attack. The runs
of Alexis and Theo Walcott could be especially dangerous in this
respect.
Whatever the path forward, the key will be finishing the
chances the Gunners create. That was obviously the downfall in this
fixture last season, when Arsenal took 22 shots, put 11 on target, and
drew a blank. In two of three matches so far this season, scoring has
not been a problem—while Southampton have failed to prevent their
opponents from scoring each time out. Perhaps we can expect a different
dynamic from this encounter.
Arsenal’s defense will most likely
have a different look. Mustafi will probably take over from Rob Holding
beside Koscielny, giving the Gunners an experienced, aggressive central
defensive tandem. Mustafi’s decision-making will be tested right away by
the wily and speedy Saints attackers Nathan Redmond and Shane Long.
In
all, there should be plenty of new developments to hold the interest in
this one. Let’s hope the conclusion differs from those of recent
Arsenal-Southampton meetings, of which only one of the past six produced
an Arsenal win.
Key Matchup
Granit Xhaka
against Dusan Tadic. These two will determine which team dictates play.
Tadic provides the creativity for Southampton, while Xhaka patrols the
opposition’s creative zone and launches Arsenal. How each fulfills his
respective offensive role while hindering his opponent will influence
the course of the match.
Where to Worry
The
biggest Arsenal concern is integrating new arrivals and recent
returnees. How well do Mustafi and Koscielny gel at the center of the
defense? Is Olivier Giroud ready to lead the line again, and can he
destabilize the powerful Southampton defenders José Fonte and Virgil Van
Dijk? Or will the more mobile Pérez be introduced right away, and, if
so, how will he cope with the Premier League’s physicality?
Match Verdict
A
protracted tactical contest in the midfield swings Arsenal’s way thanks
to the mobility, variety, and intelligence of the Gunners’ front line.
Players to Watch
Arsenal. Mesut Özil.
This team is so much more threatening with the German playmaker in the
lineup. He’s a genius at manipulating space and buying time to make the
killer pass. He can also get himself into promising scoring positions,
as he did in the most recent league match against Watford and in this
fixture last season.
Southampton. Fraser Forster.
The Saints’ #1 suffered an arm injury on England duty, but Puel says he
should be ready for Saturday. Forster stood on his head in this fixture
last season, and a similar performance would frustrate Arsenal and its
fans.
